jbenedet Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Jan 4 is the big dog potential when the pacific isn’t skunked. It’s just too far south for us; save maybe extreme southern sections. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12z GFS says no on the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Outside of perhaps one poster…I don’t see anybody ignoring anything… “Ignoring”. Not the right choice of words chief. You lazy guys just need your daily dose of model crack to get through the day. Hope springs eternal. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Icon miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS says no on the 5th. looks so good, what a tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 It’s Sunday and the dude is full of anger already. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Compare BOS to MSP for the upcoming stretch. You can see at least three windows at BOS where QPF is clustered closer in timing (that signal at 300+ hours is actually pretty strong given the natural increasing uncertainty at that forecast range). If you squint at MSP you can see maybe one window of tighter clustering in time. You can also see the whiff potential in the BOS plot. Those gaps of no QPF in the first window show members that are fish storms. Of course this is just QPF, so a cutter can still have a great signal but a poor result for the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: looks so good, what a tease Just can't amplify the trough soon enough, The rug pull could be painful going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s Sunday and the dude is full of anger already. He’s a mess… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Stepping outside the sandbox for a moment ( ... or maybe 'litter box' is apropos ), this EPS mean looks like March 1993. Triple stream phased planetary low event: Doesn’t look like a cutter but maybe inland runner to a secondary late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS says no on the 5th. That’s close for areas like Richmond VA, up to ACY. 12 hours earlier phase. Boom. That region should be watching very closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would actually say the signal may be even stronger for 1/10. Ensembles for BOS are pretty tight clustering in timing for 1/7 and 1/10, lesser so for the next one after that. But it's definitely a strong QPF signal for an active stretch. Usually those 24 hr QPF meteograms look like a shotgun spray, but these all have well defined windows for QPF, which is a higher confidence signal. What I suspect is going on here in driving the current sensitivity is a bit theoretically challenging ... But, the numerical telecon say no way on siggy storms E of 90 W. We really should be seeing the evolution of a 'thaw' climo/ridge. I think what's happening is a compensating for the former, by surplus speed of the flow. It's mechanically stretching the -PNA configuration causing an exceptionally broad ( 'REAL') Rossby wave length. So broad that it almost "clicks" the mode around. That's typically a very unstable wave length. I believe if the flow were to ease off the throttle, the wave length shortens a little and the actual N/A pattern structure would then look more -PNA correlative. You don't typically have positive geopotential height anomalies NE of Hawaii and have negative height nadir so deep through the Lakes region - that's out of phase. I guess I am saying all this because, these storms are not really supported by theoretical spatial/synoptic meteorology, rather appear to made from the idiosyncratic nature of that unusual flow structure above. It doesn't lend to confidence in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: “Ignoring”. Not the right choice of words chief. You lazy guys just need your daily dose of model crack to get through the day. Hope springs eternal. It wasn’t my words..it was the other “chief Bretts” words. If you bothered to look at the post I quoted, you’d know that. Go ride your motorcycle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just can't amplify the trough soon enough, The rug pull could be painful going forward. I really want something to just crush the mountains , but we wait and watch and as I said to iceberg the Melts will be Jerry springer like for some if there is a relaxation period after this . I never bought into the 5’th , but maybe it can amp itself silly in next 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Doesn’t look like a cutter but maybe inland runner to a secondary late? That would probably be a Cleveland exit into eastern Canada in that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I really want something to just crush the mountains , but we wait and watch and as I said to iceberg the Melts will be Jerry springer like for some if there is a relaxation period after this Two days ago(Friday) the whole month of January was gone according to some. We track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: That would probably be a Cleveland exit into eastern Canada in that look. I hate those 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 It’s really tough to see that 5th threat so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That’s close for areas like Richmond VA, up to ACY. 12 hours earlier phase. Boom. That region should be watching very closely. That one would be big if we got it here, Pac won't cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 That’s a robust -NAO turned to western Atlantic ridge for the 7th/8th. Thanks to the skunked pacific. -NAO be damned. Easterly flow, warm. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s really tough to see that 5th threat so close cmc tries to get a norlun for eastern ma as a consolation, you can hang your hat on that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I hate those I can imagine that sentiment would be shared among the local faithful. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: That one would be big if we got it here, Pac won't cooperate. I think you can get an early phase; but it’s a mistake to extrapolate a further north track—it’s a cut-off slide ENE. Confluence over the western Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That’s a robust -NAO turned to western Atlantic ridge for the 7th/8th. Thanks to the skunked pacific. -NAO be damned. Easterly flow, warm. Warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I really want something to just crush the mountains , but we wait and watch and as I said to iceberg the Melts will be Jerry springer like for some if there is a relaxation period after this . I never bought into the 5’th , but maybe it can amp itself silly in next 36 hrs Thats where my focus is, Up and in, Really don't care about my BY, I don't ride here anymore so just need it in the mountains and Northern Maine to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gfs coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s really tough to see that 5th threat so close 75-100 miles west and it clips SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Huge interior NY and NJ hit along with SNE on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Nice hit on the Canadian and GFS for the seventh. All downhill from here. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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