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January 2024 -- Discussion

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models flipping rain to snow  

Regarding the Thu-Fri system, it now appears more likely (but still
not definite) that northern and southern streams will stay separated
until phasing occurs to the east of our region. This maintains a
more positive/neutral tilt which forces a more offshore track of
surface low, keeping most of its precipitation offshore as well.
That being said, there may be enough lift from northern stream
trough and sufficient moisture to generate some light rain or even
some light snow depending upon surface temperature. Right now models
are showing an initially mild airmass which favors rain, but
eventually colder air is drawn into region behind departing system,
which could result in a changeover to light snow later Thu night
into Fri (assuming enough moisture remains). In any case, this looks
to be a light precipitation event with very minor impacts. We`re
probably not looking for more than an inch or so of accumulation
(especially in the hills) according to ensemble probabilities.
Canadian ensemble is most aggressive and GEFS/EPS less so. But it
should be noted that these probabilities are based upon straight
10:1 snow to liquid ratios and do not take surface temps into
account. It may end up being a little too warm to allow much snow to
stick outside of the higher elevations.

"may be" "could" "assuming enough"

La la lock it in...

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ORH_wxman
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You might want to tone it down or take a time out....we give leeway here but you're on the line with abusive behavior.

MaineJayhawk
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Here ya go ... whack off to this

dendrite
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Ray getting close to spiking

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models flipping rain to snow  

Regarding the Thu-Fri system, it now appears more likely (but still
not definite) that northern and southern streams will stay separated
until phasing occurs to the east of our region. This maintains a
more positive/neutral tilt which forces a more offshore track of
surface low, keeping most of its precipitation offshore as well.
That being said, there may be enough lift from northern stream
trough and sufficient moisture to generate some light rain or even
some light snow depending upon surface temperature. Right now models
are showing an initially mild airmass which favors rain, but
eventually colder air is drawn into region behind departing system,
which could result in a changeover to light snow later Thu night
into Fri (assuming enough moisture remains). In any case, this looks
to be a light precipitation event with very minor impacts. We`re
probably not looking for more than an inch or so of accumulation
(especially in the hills) according to ensemble probabilities.
Canadian ensemble is most aggressive and GEFS/EPS less so. But it
should be noted that these probabilities are based upon straight
10:1 snow to liquid ratios and do not take surface temps into
account. It may end up being a little too warm to allow much snow to
stick outside of the higher elevations.

 

Fantastic.....possible wrap around qpf that might be in the form of snow.  Gas up the snowblowers. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning all!  A quick post.  I plan to start a thread for the period Jan 6-10, probably around 10AM. That will encourage all posts for the last half of January to stay in January and we can concentrate energy on what I think will occur between the 6th-10th.  That general idea follows with one graphic. Ensemble support for 2-6" of qpf in that period is in agreement for base 2" in the NYC subforum.  Where its snow its 4+ but on I95 and east, messy or just rain? But stormy for sure. Good thing tides are down.  Wind will be involved.  You may want to go back to the CPC hazards posted this past Friday. Looks pretty good to me.

My base info:

Our very warm December will soon be replaced by snow plowing and shoveling across much of the region along and just west of I95 into the Appalachians. I will set the driveway snow stakes this week (nw NJ)

I expect renewed flooding in parts of eastern PA/NJ and possibly elsewhere in the northeast. When all is said and done by Wednesday night January 10, at least two inches of water equivalent precipiation will have fallen along the entire east coast with isolated 6 inches. This means that snowfalls next weekend and possibly at the start of the warmer storm of the 10th, will at least partially melt.

 

Here's the EPS chance of 4+" for next Sunday. Blues are above 30%.  I think this is a pretty good signal for 7 days in advance. Where it actually ends up??  CMCE is about the same. GEFS is lagging.

Screen Shot 2023-12-31 at 6.38.03 AM.png

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s good to be back hunting. Hopefully this isn’t a fraud d7 threat though or they’ll return smiling.

I’ve blocked some of them..so it’s been fine for me.  So if it’s a mirage, it won’t matter as much to me in that posting regard. 
 

As you said, it’s good to be back in the hunt, and that is the key takeaway, feels good.  No expectations yet, just hoping for some snow flying and a little covering is a win. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/7 is a really strong sig for this far out but given it’s still a week out I wouldn’t get too committed yet regardless of how bad December was. 

I would actually say the signal may be even stronger for 1/10.

Ensembles for BOS are pretty tight clustering in timing for 1/7 and 1/10, lesser so for the next one after that. But it's definitely a strong QPF signal for an active stretch. 

Usually those 24 hr QPF meteograms look like a shotgun spray, but these all have well defined windows for QPF, which is a higher confidence signal.

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