MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Cmc hits the mid Atlantic just like the icon with the 7th wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Doubt it - the fast nature of the flow is just killing this entire period. It’s a looming negative factor and every time the model run seem to conserve more of that ridiculous speed problem we get solutions that are whiffy and stretched out like this and I’m not sure it’s not true. We’ll see. It wouldn’t take much though. Just a little tweak on the srn vort for 1/5 would do it. Obviously it’s not a high likelyhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Big jump east on the cmc for 1/5. Snow showers from the northern stream but the meat is way offshore now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GFS clips SW CT on the 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Would be very 1973 to miss this whole period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I don’t hate that for 8 days out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS clips SW CT on the 7th Runs into a wall. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0/2 on all guidance out to 200 hours, unless you count snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Big jump east on the cmc for 1/5. Snow showers from the northern stream but the meat is way offshore now Canadian was crack at 12z anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Certainly, the models are having trouble with it cause there’s continuity problems everywhere. It’s like we’re threading the needle in a lot of ways even though the systems are a little bigger than that. When the streams are so fast and energetic, little variances just have a disproportionately large consequence Like Scott was kind of hinting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 0/2 on all guidance out to 200 hours, unless you count snow showers Canadian is an advisory event for you. And 40 miles from a pummeling. No thanks to a bullseye at day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Would be very 1973 to miss this whole period. If we make it to 1/10 with nothing, I think Rat watch is in high alert, because it looks over pretty hostile again after that for at least a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian was crack at 12z anyways. Canadian is crack at any hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian is an advisory event for you. And 40 miles from a pummeling. No thanks to a bullseye at day 8 I don’t love the majority so far offshore though, that’s a flag for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Canadian is crack at any hour. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If we make it to 1/10 with nothing, I think Rat watch is in high alert, because it looks over pretty hostile again after that for at least a little while Get me to the 20th and see how things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t love the majority so far offshore though, that’s a flag for me Would you rather more rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Wow cmc also came in alot better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Would you rather more rain? Yeah given the origins of these, I’d rather a little east. Doesn’t mean it will come west, but you know how these work sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I’m not sure why … and I’m not saying things are gonna work out this way, but for some reason all evening, I knew these model runs were gonna look this way tonight. Don’t ask me how I knew I just had a feeling like I didn’t wanna even look. I guess it’s good for the mid Atlantic snow for at least one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GEFs look less enthused about 1/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Glad were not bulls eyed at this lead, All of these are close enough to end up on the positive side, Rather see the activity with a chance then a dry stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0Z models to weenies:https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/2ff35f48-51e2-4b25-a79f-182b358f368a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The warmup is muted on the models tonight. Epo reloads . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Nice Hazey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Ukie for the 7th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Ukie for the 7thCan you post H5?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Can you post H5? . I don't have those on SV but here was 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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