CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 GEFS also west with 1/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Swfe? Thats just a hugger with east winds SWFE is usually further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 On 12/29/2023 at 8:51 AM, Typhoon Tip said: None of these fuggin sources were .. jesus - cancel January if these first couple of opportunities fail. It's a wind blown -PNA/Chinook look in the 500 mb with positive hgt N-NE of Hawaii and a broad open trough through the west. Not sure I see how that ends well for the E. And it's not just that spatial version of it, either. The numerical telecons have -PNA/+EPO, which makes it difficult to argue against. The only thing that would save that is the -AO/-NAO. I would say 30 years ago ... not so sure with the climate now. It's just one in many nuanced ways in which these circulation modes are being modulated by CC that I personally cannot ignore any longer. However subtle or gross notwithstanding, it more than merely seems that when in a dilemma of diametric signals ( cold vs hot ) ... hot wins. It's just a matter of by how much of a margin. I'm looking at the 06z GFS and feeling satisfied eating shit (so to speak..). Because yeah, made the call that there should be systems in place around those time intervals last week. Wee... but the jokes on us because, has anyone noticed that the 0 C 850 mb isotherm is always on the NW periphery of system structures? It's never really IN the storm. It's like the storms are oil and cold side is water 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's the western limb of the NAO crashing doing that - I'm certain of it. The system isn't going W of DET - or having difficulty doing so with exertion back transmitting through the field. How the f can it? thing of the eddy structure - the whole flow at mid levels becomes a barrier jet. It's a 24 hour miracle!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 d11…let’s not overthink it. lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Straight up looks like I hacked the gfs and ran it out of my basement. Snows EAST of the low! 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a weird look. Just a stretched out trough with that 7th deal. Good airmass though. It just reeks of a setup that works with shorter wavelengths. I'd think its highly likely in early January its a miss but might work in late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I saw that, is that even physically possible. Ha ha... it is. It is just unfortunate for storm enthusiasts that it's on a D10 chart and not on a D2 chart. I'll tell you ... not sure what your origin/age are but in 1997, Dec 23, one of the most spectacular ( unforecasted too!) choke snow falls unleashed shock and awe out of an isentropic explosion that drove people to do what you just did ...ask if it were even physically possible. This fuckin thing dumped 23" of snow in 8 hours in N Worcester and Middlesex Co of interior eastern MA, where was forecast' 1-3" with as much as 5" in the elevations of wet snow. The temperature never got above 30 ... in fact, I was living in Acton Ma at the time and know it never got about 27. Straight down snow so heavy that you literally could not see more than several feet outside your window, fell for 4 hrs, shouldered on either side by 1 hour of 1/8th to 1/4 mi vis. I measured a one hr 7.5" in that. We ended up at just shy of 18". Those kind of exotic "synergy" events do set up but they are by virtue of what that implies, extraordinarily rare. Rarer still would be any GFS model run actually setting one up on a D10 chart and actually verifying. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 This could go a long way to flushing out the sour taste we’ve been experiencing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: This could go a long way to flushing out the sour taste we’ve been experiencing. Hopefully it doesn’t drop a deuce in your mouth and revert. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's a 24 hour miracle!! Well ... it is what it is. The -AO/-NAO appears to be exerting since ... Will it continue to exert? hm I'll tell you one thing: all three ens sources have the EPO negative through the 5th before it starts rising. It seems the lag of cold loading down to 40 N it "might" have a feed back on helping things because if it's cold S/W of a NAO block that would actually help lower the heights over SE Canada to the 50/50 low. Transitively ... that enhances confluence and you end up with a surface high ... I think we're seeing that in these GFS renditions - whether this all goes down this way? we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully it doesn’t drop a deuce in your mouth and revert. lol, Would I be surprised? Probably not but odds are pretty good I think one of these works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ... it is what it is. The -AO/-NAO appears to be exerting since ... Will it continue to exert? hm I'll tell you one thing: all three ens sources have the EPO negative through the 5th before it starts rising. It seems the lag of cold loading down to 40 N it "might" have a feed back on help things because if it's cold east of a NAO block that would actually help lower the heights in the SE Canada to 50/50 low. Transitively ... that enhances confluence and you end up with a surface high ... I think we're seeing that in these GFS renditions - whether this all goes down this way? we'll see. Maybe it goes back to shit, but this is the exact point that I have been insisting would distinguish this season from terds like 1973. At least one of these should work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Interesting how each successive system gains latitude, but outside of the first one rounding the bend late, these are west-to-east deals. At least there's finally an actual northern cold source -- the 850s are below freezing for the entire northeast almost the entire GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: No it isn’t. It’s cold enough to snow down to Mid-Atlantic. WTF does that guy look at? I think he bought his MET degree from Amazon… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 This would be ok if it works out 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: This would be ok if it works out Yes, that would even things out quite a bit. Honestly, at this point I’d be happy with just getting on the board. But I’d gladly accept that look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: This would be ok if it works out that'll work, hope I get to see something otg before I drive south until mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Great run for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully it doesn’t drop a deuce in your mouth and revert. Thank you winter may I have another? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: This would be ok if it works out How much for Taunton? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: This would be ok if it works out Looks like Jan 2003 snow cover map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thank you winter may I have another? Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z GEFS, Great look for an ensemble mean. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GEFS, Great look for an ensemble mean. You can really see the SWFE configuration to the snowfall gradient with the blocking forcing more redevelopment to the NE.....Taunton>Tolland? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can really see the SWFE configuration to the snowfall gradient with the blocking forcing more redevelopment to the NE.....Taunton>Tolland? Going to be a gradient somewhere, Right now it’ looks to be the one on the 11th that has the SWFE look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Parking at Citifield is now 40 dollarsNo…$25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 17 minutes ago, met_fan said: No…$25 It was more expensive during the season . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, George001 said: Holy shit. The pattern on the 18z gfs is a thing of beauty. Actual fucking COLD! Yeah fr. I get a piece of every storm and cutter on that run and end up with 13". Oh what a dream that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 40 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GEFS, Great look for an ensemble mean. My wife really wants to snowmobile when we got Jan 31st to Feb 4th. We’re going to use a place in Franconia notch, hoping they snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 So as of right now, is the 4-5 threat off the table? Or is it still a possibility in southern New England? The 6-7 threat looks like it's a non-threat right now... And that threat 11-12 still looks like the most potent at this point, correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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