Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: North on the gfs There’s a limit how far in this pattern . Ninos like to stay somewhat south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 A little Hudson Bay ridging may help with the potential cutter after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said: Wow. We might have a white Russian Orthodox Christmas! Putting on the carols. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 hours ago, dryslot said: Just let it dump in NW Maine and up in the County. Hey! Let it get us too please. Don’t be so selfish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Obviously there's lower preference for the GEPs/members but ... seein' as you were discussing "ensemble means" and suspecting phasing... the GEPs DEFINITELY have members. One of which takes a 967 mb low along the Jersey coast to 961 just S of ACK, in a field of sub 982 members in that region of enhanced spread. Those members doing that are likely all N/stream consumers. This is doing so at 126 to 144 hours - that's not a terribly long lead. Not sure we should discount that entire ensemble system entirely here. I also want to point out (lower probability for positive return but non-zero nonetheless), both pieces to the 4-6th puzzle are not being sampled in the physically realized sounding grid yet. It matters a lot less now with assimilation advances. However, we've already seen one system last month jump in amplitude by a small measure when it came on board back in November. If there is any pattern foot that would seem more likely to express that sort of correction ... fast and therefore error prone might be one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Keep lifting north or weaken as we go along over the next few days, Where the one in the 5th ends up will have a bearing on the 7 th too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a weird look. Just a stretched out trough with that 7th deal. Good airmass though. It's the western limb of the NAO crashing doing that - I'm certain of it. The system isn't going W of DET - or having difficulty doing so with exertion back transmitting through the field. How the f can it? thing of the eddy structure - the whole flow at mid levels becomes a barrier jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: Hey! Let it get us too please. Don’t be so selfish. Talking to the wrong person lol, Wish I had the steering wheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 That’s a nice high on the 10th. No pack is getting wiped with that. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Miller B for the huge cutter now thanks to the 50 50 low. Nice turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's the western limb of the NAO crashing doing that - I'm certain of it. The system isn't going W of DET - or having difficulty doing so with exertion back transmitting through the field. How the f can it? thing of the eddy structure - the whole flow at mid levels becomes a barrier jet. Yeah check out the “cutter” after lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Holy shit. The pattern on the 18z gfs is a thing of beauty. Actual fucking COLD! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Miller B for the huge cutter now thanks to the 50 50 low. Nice turn of events. Not for you and I, but deep interior anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: Holy shit. The pattern on the 18z gfs is a thing of beauty. Actual fucking COLD! Put the beer down and step away from the computer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: That’s a nice high on the 10th. No pack is getting wiped with that. It’s funny bc you said pack .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Not for you and I, but deep interior anyways. It trended in the right direction anyway . Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 d11 fantasy land, but at least it’s looking active with enough cold to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Miller B for the huge cutter now thanks to the 50 50 low. Nice turn of events. Inside hugger Miller B. Still rain for us but nice to see the option of the St Paul cutter trending east on some guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The gorilla coming on the 11th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s funny bc you said pack .. In reference to what Pope said earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 23 minutes ago, George001 said: I’ve been very pessimistic about the pattern since December, but we have 3 legitimate threats to track. 5th, 7th, and then the 10th. I would like to see a bit more cold air, but it’s workable. We should catch one before it warms up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Wow... that 10th-12th deal is something we haven't seen in years really ... a full on multi-faceted continental mauler. Tornado testicles along the Gulf coast with that jet structure fanning over a Gulf LLJ like that... Meanwhile, that high pressure and damming is not going to lose with that back built structure in Quebec - regardless of what the GFS thinks is happening with the set up, IT WILL BE WRONG if attempts to win with warm air N of the PHL with that look - and that's generous. Meanwhile, there's bent back trowal blizzard raging (probably) fo chi town. what a mess. Like the model is over amped at this range but it's nice to finally get you guys drug delivery. Just don't let your eyes roll back in your heads and your eyes turn opaque lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: In reference to what Pope said earlier. One of the more interesting surface evolutions I’ve seen modeled. I know I’m a weenie for analyzing day 11 gfs 18z but it produces heavy snow east of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: I saw that, is that even physically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: I saw that, is that even physically possible. Swfe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 That’s a good high so it will help keep rain/snow line from blasting NW, but it probably rains a bit more west of the above depiction. But yeah day 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Let’s see if we can gin up a big icestorm . Pattern is ripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wow... that 10th-12th deal is something we haven't seen in years really ... a full on multi-faceted continental mauler. Tornado testicles along the Gulf coast with that jet structure fanning over a Gulf LLJ like that... Meanwhile, that high pressure and damming is not going to lose with that back built structure in Quebec - regardless of what the GFS thinks is happening with the set up, IT WILL BE WRONG if attempts to win with warm air N of the PHL with that look - and that's generous. Meanwhile, there's bent back trowal blizzard raging (probably) fo chi town. what a mess. Like the model is over amped at this range but it's nice to finally get you guys are drug delivery. Just don't let your eyes roll back in your heads and your eyes turn opaque lol Need consistency in the 4-6 day range to get the correct dose of drugs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Let’s keep these looks for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now