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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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Re the 4-6th ...  I've always been leaning in favor of this event over the latter 6-8th.   The reason is just to do with wave spacing in a higher speed rate pattern.  It's tough to get even two middling events just 36 hours apart. When in this forecasting dilemma in the past ... personal experience, the lead tends to win.

Having said that...there are examples of that in history (succeeding)  Dec 1996 leaps to mind.  That double dong I consider to be the same event because we finished up a 4-6" tree clinger, settled off to 30F for still-air sagging tree and powerline retention, with no clearing inbetween.  The 2nd came along the following night with 9-15" and thunder snow.    It can happen, but the rarity of it - more typically ... the models will start keying in on one or the other and sort of sacrifice the other's wave spacing and/or dynamics ( moisture/instability parameters).

I like the 12z GEPs ensemble mean the best just for eye candy.  Down near 994 at 132+ hours lead, with a lot of spread pointing to the NY Bite, while there is sufficient cold back loaded over land ...this is a tasty optic. Almost ominous.  It's in the upper 20s in the 2-m while this correction vector is pointing toward a strengthening nor-easter.     (not a forecast - just a muse for now)

gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png

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25 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Until the storm comes in, and with it the pacific air.

 

Are you a meteorologist ( just curious )? 

It Seems like very bias to not having snow around here. I know the pattern is not ideal, but you really lean towards two and gloom in the Northeast. Northeast. Maybe you're right, but things can also change even a few days out.

 

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Yea first time since last winter season. Add it to the growing list of signs pointing to a big warmup in coming weeks.

Wonder why Geese hunting season is still on? Maybe because they stick around and over winter? There's one in my freezer right now. Son in law got it this morning.  Pope with the old wives tale, and I thought I was bad.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The two systems almost have opposite problems. 
 

1/5 we’re needing a bit more southern stream phasing (ala GGEM) and for 1/7 we need more northern stream injection. 
 

That’s what I’d be looking for on each model cycle. 

Can clearly see that looping H5 vorticity.

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6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Are you a meteorologist ( just curious )? 

It Seems like very bias to not having snow around here. I know the pattern is not ideal, but you really lean towards two and gloom in the Northeast. Northeast. Maybe you're right, but things can also change even a few days out.

 

It’s a long story but one that dates back to some big busted forecasts. He was in exile afterwards but vowed to return with vengeance against winter weenies. 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The two systems almost have opposite problems. 
 

1/5 we’re needing a bit more southern stream phasing (ala GGEM) and for 1/7 we need more northern stream injection. 
 

That’s what I’d be looking for on each model cycle. 

there has to be phasing with some of those EPS members, no? i find it hard to believe you could get sub-985mb members with just the southern stream

IMG_3987.thumb.png.1d03c46a28599e4fcf7c1b07eec0cf6b.png

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49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. The 1/7 setup has a high to the north. It’s not advecting in PAC air as it approaches. It would be drawing down air from that high. 

Gooseology, not modelology, silly man

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What a terrible AFD from BOX. No mention of any snow or anything and then they end with a saying that not one person has ever heard of or used ever. 
 

Temperatures to start the New Year trend towards being mild in the
low and middle-40s, with average highs generally mid to upper-30s.
But the overnight lows, in particular Monday night into Tuesday does
have the potential to get fairly cold given clearing sky cover and
light wind... lows could drop into the upper-teens and low-20s. From
there temperatures do moderate and return to more seasonable lows
Tuesday and Wednesday night in the mid and upper-20s. Late week into
the weekend the trend is for cooler conditions if the low develops
and CAA overtakes the region. As they say, pounds of time.

 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a terrible AFD from BOX. No mention of any snow or anything and then they end with a saying that not one person has ever heard of or used ever. 
 

Temperatures to start the New Year trend towards being mild in the
low and middle-40s, with average highs generally mid to upper-30s.
But the overnight lows, in particular Monday night into Tuesday does
have the potential to get fairly cold given clearing sky cover and
light wind... lows could drop into the upper-teens and low-20s. From
there temperatures do moderate and return to more seasonable lows
Tuesday and Wednesday night in the mid and upper-20s. Late week into
the weekend the trend is for cooler conditions if the low develops
and CAA overtakes the region. As they say, pounds of time.

 

wtf does that mean? Pounds of time?

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