dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The 12z EPS likes the 10-11th for inland areas away from the coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wouldn't trust the op Euro beyond 5 in this pattern. You have a high speed -PNA under a 'tendency' to back drill colder heights into SE Canada from a -NAO that it also agrees will set in, so what does it do? Stalls a planetary trough node over Nebraska and carves heights down to Texas. Given that model's heredity of lagging heights S/W (is it really over that obsession?) ... it's like trusting a con just because they put in their time, but now have been released out into the temptations of society Any op run really. But yeah I agree. A few small changes means a lot so naturally you use ensembles which hopefully show you the different outcomes and help identifier outliers. Also, once again 12z EPS looks good. What’s with the 12z runs looking good lately. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: The 12z EPS likes the 10-11th for inland areas away from the coast too. Good high prior. Maybe that can be more of a SWFE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Not a bad look at all for this lead time..we take. We track. We don’t close the shades! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ironically EPS wants the 7th. Surprised to see this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Good high prior. Maybe that can be more of a SWFE. That would work well if we get that to go under SNE, It looked like it was going for that look anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Surprised to see this Very, Majority are inside the BM tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Any op run really. But yeah I agree. A few small changes means a lot so naturally you use ensembles which hopefully show you the different outcomes and help identifier outliers. Also, once again 12z EPS looks good. What’s with the 12z runs looking good lately. Heh I've noticed that many times in the past, too. These guidance et al seem to exhibit a kind of oscillation between amplitude and positioning. Less or more on 12z, and vice versa on 0. I wonder why that is... I used to think it was diurnal load balancing with hemispheric heating on day vs night side but that seems like it should be less evident in winter. I don't know - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Any op run really. But yeah I agree. A few small changes means a lot so naturally you use ensembles which hopefully show you the different outcomes and help identifier outliers. Also, once again 12z EPS looks good. What’s with the 12z runs looking good lately. EPS is really trying to build the -NAO mid-month. Like retrograde that North Atlantic ridge back into Greenland and Baffin/Davis Strait. That would keep things interesting despite a meh N PAC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Very, Majority are inside the BM tracks. I'd like to see them deeper than 999 mb but like Will said ... it's still close to 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Surprised to see this Not surprising given how bad the EPS has become, toss far and wide. Pattern > Modelology. Pattern says this is a swing and a miss. Need major changes to say otherwise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is really trying to build the -NAO mid-month. Like retrograde that North Atlantic ridge back into Greenland and Baffin/Davis Strait. That would keep things interesting despite a meh N PAC I like the fact that it's positioning over the western limb of the NAO domain. An east biased blocking would allow more room for the dreaded Iowa to western Ontario storm track.. but, when it is west, the "Great Lakes squeezer" low enters the picture. With confluence barrier we turn a -PNA into a winter storm index. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Let’s get some frost in the ground and then get that primary slp to transfer like the 12z gfs op shows for the 11th and then do it again on the 15th. Source region vastly improved by that point. That was the best run we’ve seen in a while for winter in the NE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'd like to see them deeper than 999 mb but like Will said ... it's still close to 9 days out. There some in there in the low 990’s, and some in the 980’s too..also a couple in the 970’s too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Geese. A. do they predict future weather? or B. are they reacting to the current weather? I’ve never seen a goose on TV putting out a forecast, so I’m leaning B. But I could be wrong. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Let’s get some frost in the ground and then get that primary slp to transfer like the 12z gfs op shows for the 11th and then do it again on the 15th. Source region vastly improved by that point. That was the best run we’ve seen in a while for winter in the NE. Good chance we will get one of these to work out at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Very, Majority are inside the BM tracks. Changes every 24 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Changes every 24 hrs Just keep showing up at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Just keep showing up at this point. Yes…I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 19 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not surprising given how bad the EPS has become, toss far and wide. Pattern > Modelology. Pattern says this is a swing and a miss. Need major changes to say otherwise. I actually agree that 1/7 is still a longshot but I won’t confidently dismiss as easily as you because it’s not a prerequisite to have a ridge out west to get those to gain latitude. You’d just want to see that southern stream a little deeper…incorporate a bit more N stream energy before it tries to turn the corner. We’ve seen several big southern stream storms in the past with a trough out west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ironically EPS wants to bring more rain for the 7th. Fixed it for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Fixed it for you Are you saying we won’t Sey Mour Snow? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 I suggest that if it makes you angry, crazy, upset in any other way; just tune out until a durable pattern changes still probably several weeks away presuming it happens. I will check in more than once per day because I will take whatever wx I get and maybe I'll learn something. Not surprisingly, it will get a bit colder and it will at least feel like early December vs early to mid November. Although as mentioned I have no issues with no ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The 7th one is all but completely off the table. Even if the track somehow takes it north to our region, which is unlikely in and of itself, it will be flooded with tropical pacific air. Rain. Careful what you wish for. You guys…SMH 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The serviceable airmass for 4/5 is gone by the 7th. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The serviceable airmass for 4/5 is gone by the 7th. No it isn’t. It’s cold enough to snow down to Mid-Atlantic. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: No it isn’t. It’s cold enough to snow down to Mid-Atlantic. Until the storm comes in, and with it the pacific air. 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Until the storm comes in, and with it the pacific air. I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. The 1/7 setup has a high to the north. It’s not advecting in PAC air as it approaches. It would be drawing down air from that high. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. The 1/7 setup has a high to the north. It’s not advecting in PAC air as it approaches. It would be drawing down air from that high. The grass said no snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. The 1/7 setup has a high to the north. It’s not advecting in PAC air as it approaches. It would be drawing down air from that high. He wine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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