January 2024 -- Discussion

[jbenedet]

RE Jan4: The northern stream is improving but the southern stream is deamplifying over the western Atlantic. That’s the trend on guidance; and it’s supported by the teles.
 

My thoughts are still that the northern stream will dig for gold; and it can hook up with the southern stream shortwave much sooner, over the SE CONUS; but —despite this—the downstream UL height amplification over the western Atlantic will remain muted and therefore not allow enough latitude gain to bring SNE into the game. 
 

Still think south of mason Dixon more interesting than Nova Scotia but both are very much in the game. At the same time, Portsmouth NH 40, sunny and dry. My best guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS has the 11th going underneath us now verbatim this run.

Makes sense to get a SWFE in Maritime phases....invoke some 2008.

[dryslot]

Rather look at this then a country music video.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to NARCAN the moment buuuut,   the teleconnector correlations during that time rapidly reposition over Iowa for that 11th system.

Being D11-13 in the guidance, I don't have any qualms with assuming this run is doing save vestigial GFS tenedencies toward progression bias.  We'll see. 

I'm not trying to ruin your high here, just to maybe establish a (sure to fail -) tether hold on objective con. 

Having said all that - there is also a -AO/-NAO aspects that are fu'n with me.  I mentioned that these other large scale suggestions could in fact cause a polar boundary to fixate along the ORD-Logan type latitude.  So ...in fairness, this run could also be responding to these latter index mode forcing suggestions, just the same

[J Paul Gordon]

Wow. We might have a white Russian Orthodox Christmas! Putting on the carols.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Makes sense to get a SWFE in Maritime phases....invoke some 2008.

That would be good if we can keep this one going out under us.

[jbenedet]

We tried to tell em.

[kazimirkai]

44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good post.
 

Lots of younger weenies were misled/influenced by the constant big/bigger storms, and having things work out more often than not, the last 2 decades.  But that’s not how it always is.  
 

That’s why this stretch of trash is even tougher on them. Those of us who’ve lived through the bad winter times before, know this.  
 

Hope we can catch a break coming up..would take the edge off for most of us. Even a couple inches would be nice. 

You said it man. A lot of people around me are saying things like "why doesn't it snow anymore?" or "remember when it used to snow before global warming?" I don't really know what to say because I don't honestly know how much this snow drought over the past 5 years has to due with climate change compared to a regular period of variation. What do you guys think?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

In most years I’d look at the pattern coming up and say that looks pretty good and it would work out.
 

But over the last two years I look at it and say to myself how can we screw this up?

 

It’s still a decent look imo. Just need to see how the dice rolls.

When does it look pretty good , what period are we talking about 

been busy all am, 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We tried to tell em.

Flat and ots

[Typhoon Tip]

GEFs trended in the z-coordinate depth under LI for the 5th, though. Not a lot, but those several DMs should be construed as a lean toward more amplitude considering other guidance are trying to weight a consensus that way...

Simply put, don't give up just because the scalar depiction is a miss.  Also, the run to run comparison of the GFS shows more cyclonic orientation to the surface isobaric layout, with at least as others mentioned, more 'snow in air'    Maybe it isn't too late in technological evolution to still get a Boxing Day correction...

Also, having looked over the general tapestry of this run ... yeah, it's pretty clearly reconstructed around more -NAO backward exertion through the field.  Can't recall who mentioned it ...but yeah, this is more likely evincing through the coherency improvement with that 50/50 spv

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When does it look pretty good , what period are we talking about 

been busy all am, 

I just mean in general. For instance you look at the pattern for December 2007 and did you ever think you’d get near record snows? Compare that to now and you’d think we should be having some chances here. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

You said it man. A lot of people around me are saying things like "why doesn't it snow anymore?" or "remember when it used to snow before global warming?" I don't really know what to say because I don't honestly know how much this snow drought over the past 5 years has to due with climate change compared to a regular period of variation. What do you guys think?

It’s extremely hard to put a percentage of attribution on a thing like snowfall over a short 5 year period. Snowfall is one of the highest variance weather outcomes we have. Some of the warmth is definitely connected to CC but not all of it. 

[Hazey]

Yup. We watch ensembles. Long range looking intriguing.

[CoastalWx]

I’m always watching gulf lows this far out. The tendency more often than not is usually more amped this far out. I understand that s/w’s can deamplify etc, but just a general rule. 

[jbenedet]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize your tuggin' winter enthusiast pubes with this statement and it's all fun and all.  Just the same, I saw geese in V formation communicating overhead in the midst of that 2017 March Nor'easter, not 10 minutes after there were two lightning flashes and the reporting thunder ... At the time it was S borderline S+ vis in the 1/3 mi range. 31 F   I was like, 'whaaaa -' 

I'm able to recall all that because in the moment it was just too weird - like one of those 'where were you when -' moments. Seeing them fly over,  apparently they absolutely couldn't miss their flight so they had to risk it ?

 

To be sure, I think Jan is going to torch. The grass has greened up and it will stick for the next couple of weeks at least. That’s what all signs are pointing too-observationally, MJO, global guidance, and even the guys at the CPC. I’m not saying it will never snow again, but we are in a very poor synoptic pattern for snow at the moment, and it actually looks like it gets worse before it gets better. First week of Jan looks slightly AN, but then we’re back to +AN. 

I do think it makes sense to wait until that analog consensus for El Nino’s —very late Jan into February period which tends to have a large scale switch to wintry conditions. Although, before getting more enthusiastic for a big comeback we need that timeframe to come within view.

[moneypitmike]

So is the focus now on the 10th?  Another can kicked?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GEFs trended in the z-coordinate depth under LI for the 5th, though. Not a lot, but those several DMs should be construed as a lean toward to more amplitude considering other guidance are trying to weight a consensus that way...

Simply put, don't give up just because the scalar depiction is a miss.  Also, the run to run comparison of the GFS shows more cyclonic orientation to the surface isobaric layout, with at least as others mentioned, more 'snow in air'    Maybe it isn't too late in technological evolution to still get a Boxing Day correction...

Also, having looked over the general tapestry of this run ... yeah, it's pretty clearly reconstructed around more -NAO backward exertion through the field.  Can recall who mentioned it ...but this is more likely evincing with the coherency of that 50/50 spv

GFS suite is producing more northern stream light snow than before. Southern stream doesn’t really phase in well like on GGEM or ICON…but that deeper northern stream does give us a “consolation prize”. 

[codfishsnowman]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS suite is producing more northern stream light snow than before. Southern stream doesn’t really phase in well like on GGEM or ICON…but that deeper northern stream does give us a “consolation prize”. 

I'll take it!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d take the cmc and run for the hills 

[dryslot]

Give me an active northern stream and the chances will win out most of the time.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m always watching gulf lows this far out. The tendency more often than not is usually more amped this far out. I understand that s/w’s can deamplify etc, but just a general rule. 

I kind of said that yesterday too…these more often than not come a little more north.  Hoping this does that too. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d take the cmc and run for the hills 

That’s a pretty big hit for you ..so ya.  Like I said on the previous page, I’d even take the 2” it threw me too. Lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m always watching gulf lows this far out. The tendency more often than not is usually more amped this far out. I understand that s/w’s can deamplify etc, but just a general rule. 

Yeah I do too, just so these systems have a moisture source.    That's not being a wise-ass, really... I just with the fast flow these friggin bottle rocket N/stream S/W enter the Pac N/W continent and exit NE in under 72 hours, they don't have 'time' ( for lack of better word) to operate.  Having an ample moisture source inject helps that.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS are pretty far offshore on the 5th.

Too bad, the Canadian and icon were intriguing, but they are trash models so, yeah.

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

That’s a pretty big hit for you ..so ya.  Like I said on the previous page, I’d even take the 2” it threw me too. Lol. 

Just let it dump in NW Maine and up in the County.

[Layman]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Epic flock of geese spotted in Newington. Close the shades to February.

Can confirm.  More geese than people at the dying Fox Run Mall.  Has a distinct late March, early April feel out there today.  

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

To be sure, I think Jan is going to torch. The grass has greened up and it will stick for the next couple of weeks at least. That’s what all signs are pointing too-observationally, MJO, global guidance, and even the guys at the CPC. I’m not saying it will never snow again, but we are in a very poor synoptic pattern for snow at the moment, and it actually looks like it gets worse before it gets better. First week of Jan looks slightly AN, but then we’re back to +AN. 

I do think it makes sense to wait until that analog consensus for El Nino’s —very late Jan into February period which tends to have a large scale switch to wintry conditions. Although, before getting more enthusiastic for a big comeback we need that timeframe to come within view.

To reiterate my own position on January stated prior to Xmas, I didn't really have a strong confidence for anything beyond the first 10 days, but at the time ... I was leaning warm.

Since then, however, the -AO/-NAO seem to have gathered momentum in the projections.  We'll need to be cognizant of that. If yours and other's sentiments re a "switch" were to take place, it's also possible these -AO/-NAO indicators are like a zygote to that pattern in the making?  Just a supposition - not a forecast there...

I gotta say...if these latter polar sources back off and/or fail exertion, yeah ... I don't have a problem with a mid month warm up, because the Pacific is raging in a AA phased (-pna/+epo) import which correlates to a Chinooky continent.

[jbenedet]

The 2nd week of January, beginning Jan 7th-ish, looks like torchiest (?) period so far this season. Whoever gains a pack prior will be wiped out during this window.

Very strong signal for significant +T anamolies with duration. 

Thinking this will be weenie cliff-jump period.

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The 2nd week of January, beginning Jan 7th-ish, looks like torchiest (?) period so far this season. Whoever gains a pack prior will be wiped out during this window.

Very strong signal for significant +T anamolies with duration. 

Thinking this will be weenie cliff-jump period.

Closing the shades.  Reassess around 1/20.