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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No change from yesterday--- not too worried about suppression.  Up here we're northern fringes for a while. My overall thinking based on ensembles (not individual single member op runs). 

Northeast USA from interior sections of NC-VA northward (mainly west of I95) : wintry options around Thursday January 4, next weekend January 6-7 and around January 10. For now playing this as there will be one event listed above, that produces an inch or more of snow for all of us (I95 or just west of I95) but which and where each system targets, too early for me but at least there are options on the table that could produce a plowable 4+" inch snow -- this latter impression is not a guarantee of widespread. The 1" I'm pretty confident of from NC/VA northward to Canada.  How it plays and where each event targets the snow-ice vs rain is to be determined.
 
As far as rainfall between 4th-14th--- another general 1-4" is a more than 50% chance for the I95 cities - it's an El Nino winter with a coastal storm track. The 4" rainfall potential probably has a better chance of verifying NC/GA but its within the realm of possibility up to NYC-BOS-Hartford and for snow lover's we hope not in ski-snow mobile country of the interior northeast. We've had enough rain... top 10 wettest December.
 

 

 

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Kind of weird that the 00z Euro suite basically got rid of the 1/5 storm while other guidance all has it. 
 

The 06z EPS did bring it back a decent amount just looking now. Not sure what was up with the 00z run. 
 

The 00z EPS did have a number of decent hits for 1/7-8 again despite OP being south and wide right. Something to watch still…esp for southern peeps. 

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I thought this winter was going to be a good once since we are in an El Nino. 

The background state is acting more like a La Nina. 

The MJO went through the favorable phases and nothing happened. 

Yes we are only in December and strong El Ninos are backloaded but time is ticking.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s sucks but I’m not losing my mind like the youngin’s. 

My wife and I had our digital lives hacked in mid-December freezing debit cards, apps, etc.  THAT sucked and still sucks as we're waiting for new cards and the whole thing to get sorted out.  

The weather that I have no control over not doing what I want?  Psh.  

image.thumb.png.b296255cf90a152f3959b70c55fc1a77.png

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11 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Even better

 

I bet most folks didn’t know he was in a southern rock band called The Jompson Brothers and there’s a full album from 2010. That got put on hold when he became the biggest songwriter in Nashville and then his solo career went nuts. And also was in a bluegrass type band called The Steeldrivers prior to that 

 

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3 minutes ago, Layman said:

My wife and I had our digital lives hacked in mid-December freezing debit cards, apps, etc.  THAT sucked and still sucks as we're waiting for new cards and the whole thing to get sorted out.  

The weather that I have no control over not doing what I want?  Psh.  

image.thumb.png.b296255cf90a152f3959b70c55fc1a77.png

Ugh that sucks for sure.

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56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of weird that the 00z Euro suite basically got rid of the 1/5 storm while other guidance all has it. 
 

The 06z EPS did bring it back a decent amount just looking now. Not sure what was up with the 00z run. 
 

The 00z EPS did have a number of decent hits for 1/7-8 again despite OP being south and wide right. Something to watch still…esp for southern peeps. 

See, that is what I said to Tip yesterday, "here today, gone tomorrow", Just seems to be a lot of clutter in runs this winter vs. last winter? I don't know..

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15 minutes ago, 512high said:

See, that is what I said to Tip yesterday, "here today, gone tomorrow", Just seems to be a lot of clutter in runs this winter vs. last winter? I don't know..

Yes, it seems the OP runs can’t hold any one system at all?  I know..5-7 days out and all, but dam, you’d think there’d be some sort of semblance at this point of some type of system.  I mean to lose 1/5 completely at 0z, and then back again at 6z…will it be gone again at 12z?  
 

Using and seeing the system on the ensembles is a decent sign.  I hope the atmosphere can throw us a bone with one of these….dam that would help. 

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I bet most folks didn’t know he was in a southern rock band called The Jompson Brothers and there’s a full album from 2010. That got put on hold when he became the biggest songwriter in Nashville and then his solo career went nuts.

 

SteelDrivers too. Bluegrass/country/rock. Guys incredibly talented..

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