RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 After this multi day rainer departs The Next 3 systems give snow weenies the trifecta shaft. Too late, too suppressed, cutter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Noticeably more aggressive diving the N/stream out of Ontario though - that's allllmost ominous. The problem (the way I see things...) is that the total trough space, inside of which the N/stream and S/stream are flirting with having integration, is progressive and doing so too fast. They ultimately do phase, but the playground itself has move away from our area before it means much here. This is actually a hemispheric problem, too. Every thing on that chart is bodily moving unusually fast down stream. I'm not sure if this can modulate better ... I mean it's 7 days away. But even 6 hours slower and a slightly fast N/stream plunge is pretty much all that would take to clip the coast from NYC-PWM with the season's first Tip, I'm really confused with all the model runs the last few days I think it was you and others a few days ago or so, "sniff" something to watch around 1/5, then, and I could be wrong, I thought I read somewhere pages back, that the 1/5 was gone, and now a possible 1/8 or 1/9, another words did 1/5 disappear this am, and is now popping up ? What is going on with models, or is shit just moving too fast, seems a lot of clutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Maybe a huge cutter will turn things around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: After this multi day rainer departs The Next 3 systems give snow weenies the trifecta shaft. Too late, too suppressed, cutter. If true , I think the anger may subside and defeat takes over , defeated weenies who can’t rise up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 15 minutes ago, 512high said: Tip, I'm really confused with all the model runs the last few days I think it was you and others a few days ago or so, "sniff" something to watch around 1/5, then, and I could be wrong, I thought I read somewhere pages back, that the 1/5 was gone, and now a possible 1/8 or 1/9, another words did 1/5 disappear this am, and is now popping up ? What is going on with models, or is shit just moving too fast, seems a lot of clutter... 1/5 got weaker on guidance yesterday but it has come back much stronger today. 1/7-8 has been pretty weak on OP runs today (though 12z GFS tried to clip us) but stronger on the ensembles. Both are still a ways out. We’re talking 6+ days away for 1/5 and 9 days for the following system. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If true , I think the anger may subside and defeat takes over , defeated weenies who can’t rise up Yea. Ive become numb to it. The 80s were bad but without the internet, we weren’t checking models multiple times a day to see when it would turn around. So you just expected suck and was pleasantly surprised when TWC put up an advisory for 2-4”. And If we do manage someday a model to spit out 2-4” at D6, it’s going to be a wild and anxious ride for it to pan out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 21 minutes ago, 512high said: Tip, I'm really confused with all the model runs the last few days I think it was you and others a few days ago or so, "sniff" something to watch around 1/5, then, and I could be wrong, I thought I read somewhere pages back, that the 1/5 was gone, and now a possible 1/8 or 1/9, another words did 1/5 disappear this am, and is now popping up ? What is going on with models, or is shit just moving too fast, seems a lot of clutter... Model performance hasn't been stellar the last several weeks really. Lot of false leads that smeared into oblivion. It's not really 'expected' that models perform well with entities that emerge beyond D7 but even relative to that expectation ... this has been a bad month. Having said that, the 1/5 system ... yes I did mention last week that would be 'probably' the higher likeliness. Since then, what you are observing is that poor handling where aspects seem to disappear and re-appear head-game. There's been large scaled indicators that pointed in general to Dec 28 thru Jan 8..10. So we're moving through the period of interesting now with ho-hum model continuity with these particular dates. Short answer yes around 1/5. But 1/7...1/8 is still in play. My hunch is that 1/5 or the latter will become dominant over the next 2 or 3 days of modeling, but not both. There is a slim chance they'll both disappear altogether. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Mark Rosenthal used to sometimes use “tempest” and we all remember him saying “snowing to beat the band”…he loved that expression. Barry Burbank liked to use the gorilla reference as well. Loved Mark Rosenthal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Ive become numb to it. The 80s were bad but without the internet, we weren’t checking models multiple times a day to see when it would turn around. So you just expected suck and was pleasantly surprised when TWC put up an advisory for 2-4”. And If we do manage someday a model to spit out 2-4” at D6, it’s going to be a wild and anxious ride for it to pan out. 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Barry Burbank liked to use the gorilla reference as well. Loved Mark Rosenthal And even pre-TWC (we didn’t get cable until late ‘93 though my grandparents had it a couple years earlier) You would just wait until the local news came on and when you saw the snow symbols on the map you immediately perked up 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: After this multi day rainer departs The Next 3 systems give snow weenies the trifecta shaft. Too late, too suppressed, cutter. The operative watchwords are "Flood Warning". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 If we all just accept that December is a fall month and that winter is January to March 15, then we’ll all be better off mentally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 56 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Barry Burbank liked to use the gorilla reference as well. Loved Mark Rosenthal Guess where I got my user name from? Thanks Barry! I lived at my parents house in Shrewsbury, MA until 1997 and I remember all those TV Mets. Barry, Harvey and Mark were my favorites 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And even pre-TWC (we didn’t get cable until late ‘93 though my grandparents had it a couple years earlier) You would just wait until the local news came on and when you saw the snow symbols on the map you immediately perked up I miss Dickie who used to say "just ducky" for forecasting beautiful sunny days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 22 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: If we all just accept that December is a fall month and that winter is January to March 15, then we’ll all be better off mentally. Jury out on January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If true , I think the anger may subside and defeat takes over , defeated weenies who can’t rise up "Defeated weenies can't rise up" Reading that created a very unfortunate image in my mind I wish I didn't have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 At the Rangers/Panthers game in Florida…The ice crew is shoveling more snow than any of us have. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Only 4 weeks to go until Tip will post about how warm the drivers seat is in his car. Let the countdown begin. Nahh, it’s longer than 4 weeks, it’s a couple weeks after 1/29. Don’t rush shit Eeor. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 It’s absolutely hilarious how that massive cutter on the models for around January 10th barely moves around. Just going to give all of New England rain, no questions asked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: 18z gfs likes the Euros 1/5 storm. develops too late but a beast for Eastern Maine and Canada Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but even the areas it does clip, it’s too warm for snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, 512high said: Tip, I'm really confused with all the model runs the last few days I think it was you and others a few days ago or so, "sniff" something to watch around 1/5, then, and I could be wrong, I thought I read somewhere pages back, that the 1/5 was gone, and now a possible 1/8 or 1/9, another words did 1/5 disappear this am, and is now popping up ? What is going on with models, or is shit just moving too fast, seems a lot of clutter... 1/4-1/10 was always showing up as a shot at something, sigs popping up and disappearing, but unfortunately we don't have cold source until maybe the second of them and that looked suppressed to me, still time though for either of these, and how those waves will effect each other a nice phase with a good HP in S Quebec would be great to lighten moods and bring some from the cliff about now, maybe even stop the cancellation of winter on 12/29... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I would anticipate snow in interior elevations if that takes a solid track , we would need some sort of solid High pressure and some luck for that to be snow for many in SNE (I think ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Gimme something to chase Gimme something to chase 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Maybe a huge cutter will turn things around I thought the last one would do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but even the areas it does clip, it’s too warm for snow down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would anticipate snow in interior elevations if that takes a solid track , we would need some sort of solid High pressure and some luck for that to be snow for many in SNE (I think ) Well the Pope seems to think if it misses us to the south, that Mid Atlantic snows. So if that’s the case, if it comes a little further north, then it will snow here too, if it snows in South Jersey lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: And even pre-TWC (we didn’t get cable until late ‘93 though my grandparents had it a couple years earlier) You would just wait until the local news came on and when you saw the snow symbols on the map you immediately perked up I remember Don Kents map on a chalkboard and when he drew those snowflakes with white chalk, I got excited. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but even the areas it does clip, it’s too warm for snow down here. Talk to the Pope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Crack a couple IPA’s and just appreciate this dude and this performance. One for the ages. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Crack a couple IPA’s and just appreciate this dude and this performance. One for the ages. Seeing him in NH next summer. Pumped 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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