January 2024 -- Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Wasn’t this supposed to be for the mid Atlantic/suppressed deal.  Creeping north perhaps.  They like to do that.  

Absolute monster for Nova Scotia.

[dryslot]

A close miss on 1/5, But a gorilla for the maritimes on the Euro.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Absolute monster for Nova Scotia.

Maybe we can get that to pop a tad earlier…7 days out still. Wasn’t it suppressed on the GFS. Pope was saying congrats Mid Atlantic… 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess we’ll see…? I don’t trust much at 7 days out, let alone 14, but that’s just me. 

You said the same thing about this weeks torch 

[dryslot]

Going to need one of these possible next 3 at least up here, Or..............

[jbenedet]

16 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I thought this in October at some point we are going to go through a prolonged dry period and I thought it would be winter, but clearly not. We might be looking at a dry spring 

I mean with the El Niño backdrop it makes sense to have the high precip amounts; but we’re at record levels.

I see it differently- El Niño conditions will persist, we know that. We can’t get every 2”+ rain producer on the continent and also expect the cold interludes to consistently track the big snow producers over our heads. The p anomalies in this regard would be insane. It’s a bad bet. 

The very stormy pattern for us is when it’s warm. Very warm. That continues to be the case. That’s balanced by brief periods of seasonal cold and dry.

[WinterWolf]

Is this years new word Gorilla…?  

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to need one of these possible next 3 at least up here, Or..............

[jbenedet]

I’d get excited about a comeback if the warm/wet storms weren’t so goddamn warm. 

I mean, the calendar won’t help us when it’s been 5-10 degrees above freezing, generally. You need wholesale changes. 

You overlay what has happened storm-wise (take a mean) at peak winter climo and it’s still trash.

Maybe this changes in a month, but right now the persistence forecast is near as bad as it gets for winter-weather.

[cleetussnow]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I’d get excited about a comeback if the warm/wet storms weren’t so goddamn warm. 

I mean, the calendar won’t help us when it’s been 5-10 degrees above freezing, generally. You need wholesale changes. 

You overlay what has happened storm-wise (take a mean) at peak winter climo and it’s still trash.

Maybe this changes in a month, but right now the persistence forecast is near as bad as it gets for winter-weather.

Months ago the talk was this winter can’t be worse than last winter.  That theory is being tested.  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Months ago the talk was this winter can’t be worse than last winter.  That theory is being tested.  

Well we have 3 months before we know if it’s worse.  Here, that would be a very difficult feat to be worse than last year, but anything is possible. So at the end of March we can evaluate it.  

[jbenedet]

I’m very interested to know how many El Niños had strong comebacks due to wholesale pattern changes vs taking the p anomalies and existing storm tracks and throwing them into peak winter climo. If —and that’s a big if—it’s most of the latter, we’re in big trouble.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess we’ll see…? I don’t trust much at 7 days out, let alone 14, but that’s just me. 

I think that is locked in....not sure how we avoid the Maritime forcing...I don't buy the EURO COD crap.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I’m very interested to know how many El Niños had strong comebacks due to pattern changes vs taking the p anomalies and existing storm tracks and throwing them into peak winter climo. If —and that’s a big if—it’s most of the latter, we’re in big trouble.

Most of them are significantly colder. Look at January and esp February temp anomalies in El Niño…a lot of those comeback years had like -6 departures in February. Years like 2007 and 1958…of course 2015 is the extreme example when Feb 2015 became the coldest month on record for a number of places round here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m very interested to know how many El Niños had strong comebacks due to pattern changes vs taking the p anomalies and existing storm tracks and throwing them into peak winter climo. If —and that’s a big if—it’s most of the latter, we’re in big trouble.

Even 2007 and 1995 had nice stretches in February...I had a foot of snow in early Feb 1995. The only one that sucked through to the end was 1991-1992.

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Absolute monster for Nova Scotia.

That one is def worth watching. Close call…get a little more neg tilt on that sucker and it would be a pretty big storm for eastern areas. 
 

Still watching 1/7 too but that one needs a bit more work. Would help if we had a northern stream shortwave trying to dive into it as it hits the east coast to turn it north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Even 1973 had a nice event in late January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That one is def worth watching. Close call…get a little more neg tilt on that sucker and it would be a pretty big storm for eastern areas. 
 

Still watching 1/7 too but that one needs a bit more work. Would help if we had a northern stream shortwave trying to dive into it as it hits the east coast to turn it north. 

Late trend like that is how January 2015 began.......the famous "Not Happening, James (RIP)".

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not at bad look on the euro for 1-5. Gets going a little later, but good airmass to work with. 

Let's December 1976 that bitch...

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That one is def worth watching. Close call…get a little more neg tilt on that sucker and it would be a pretty big storm for eastern areas. 
 

Still watching 1/7 too but that one needs a bit more work. Would help if we had a northern stream shortwave trying to dive into it as it hits the east coast to turn it north. 

Ensembles say the same. Won’t take much I don’t think. 

[CoastalWx]

This was Hazy after the euro. Just looping it and making these sounds. 
 

 

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles say the same. Won’t take much I don’t think. 

Well we gotta week for a few changes…certainly within the realm of reason anyway.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well we gotta week for a few changes…certainly within the realm of reason anyway.  

Maybe? Who knows?

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This was Hazy after the euro. Just looping it and making these sounds. 
 

 

 

I can't stop looping and laughing 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Late trend like that is how January 2015 began.......the famous "Not Happening, James (RIP)".

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let's December 1976 that bitch...

Yeah many of those “non-major teleconnector” storms have late trends. Hopefully we can squeeze on of these into an ideal track. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hoping this first one  trends better while all models have 100% locked in on the massive screamer redux from 2 weeks ago for the second one on Jan 10th. Perfection 

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah many of those “non-major teleconnector” storms have late trends. Hopefully we can squeeze on of these into an ideal track. 

looks like some more NS influence for the 7th. some phasing probably going on to get LPs that strong 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah many of those “non-major teleconnector” storms have late trends. Hopefully we can squeeze on of these into an ideal track. 

I mean, can we catch some kind of break there?  You’d think at some point something would go in our favor? 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean, can we catch some kind of break there?  You’d think at some point something would go in our favor? 

You’d think but we haven’t gotten many breaks in the past 4-6 winter months going back to Feb 2022…I guess for your area it’s longer since you kind of got skunked by the Jan 2022 blizzard. 
 

We’ll see on these two systems. 

[WxWatcher007]

That’s a chase worthy beaut on the Euro