January 2024 -- Discussion

[weatherwiz]

55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good ens agreement on that d12 MW/GL cutter. 

Aside from that, at least 850s will approach seasonal levels so there will be some chances to snow over the interior even if they’re messy events. 

maybe we can at least get a low topped squall line

[NittanyWx]

FWIW I think the time to push panic button is if you're not seeing PNA height rebuild last 10 days of Jan.   So you're getting an idea of that in about 10 days.

 

[qg_omega]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see the PNA recover quickly to lock that in. 

No sign of that, why would we flip from an established negative PNA?  I am not seeing it at all.  PAC jet showing no signs of slowing down and conus is still being flooded by warmth.  

[NittanyWx]

I'd also say that I'd adjust +1 C from any analog in the 50s.  Gotta be honest with the current state of our climate and account for it if you're gonna use it as a forecaster.  This is the type of stuff that trips up the cold crowd on WxTwitter

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

FWIW I think the time to push panic button is if you're not seeing PNA height rebuild last 10 days of Jan.   So you're getting an idea of that in about 10 days.

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

No sign of that, why would we flip from an established negative PNA?  I am not seeing it at all.  PAC jet showing no signs of slowing down and conus is still being flooded by warmth.  

You never see anyhting at all.  Mjo going into phase 3 is a good sign of a nice ridge out west. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

No sign of that, why would we flip from an established negative PNA?  I am not seeing it at all.  PAC jet showing no signs of slowing down and conus is still being flooded by warmth.  

Don't necessarily need a +PNA. A relaxation of the PNA could be more than enough.

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see the PNA recover quickly to lock that in. 

MJO is screaming along way faster than guidance keeps progging. I think it’s going to be hard to lock in a pattern until we get one of those standing waves. Remember when it was stalling it in phase 7 until well after Xmas? Now it’s going to into phase 3 on or just after new years. They are trying to drag it in phase 3 for like 10 days right now but my guess it is does not do that and moves right along. 
 

The weird thing is that despite model guidance showing a prolonged phase 3, it’s still trying to dig that trough in the west which is the opposite of phase 3 during January El Niño. Esp for higher amplitude waves…wonder if we’ll see guidance try to correct a bit as we get closer if that wave stays strong like all the previous ones have. 

[NittanyWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Im not one who would qualify as someone who had a favorable view for snow this month until perhaps past MLK and you can look at my posting history about it.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No sign of that, why would we flip from an established negative PNA?  I am not seeing it at all.  PAC jet showing no signs of slowing down and conus is still being flooded by warmth.  

Because the -PNA won’t last forever in a stronger Nino. It will retro eventually. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is screaming along way faster than guidance keeps progging. I think it’s going to be hard to lock in a pattern until we get one of those standing waves. Remember when it was stalling it in phase 7 until well after Xmas? Now it’s going to into phase 3 on or just after new years. They are trying to drag it in phase 3 for like 10 days right now but my guess it is does not do that and moves right along. 
 

The weird thing is that despite model guidance showing a prolonged phase 3, it’s still trying to dig that trough in the west which is the opposite of phase 3 during January El Niño. Esp for higher amplitude waves…wonder if we’ll see guidance try to correct a bit as we get closer if that wave stays strong like all the previous ones have. 

@bluewave was saying that we might not get a p3 response until late month because of lag time and lingering convection in p2 

[weathafella]

Another mid November day in December.  No sun, no snow, just straight up dank.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is screaming along way faster than guidance keeps progging. I think it’s going to be hard to lock in a pattern until we get one of those standing waves. Remember when it was stalling it in phase 7 until well after Xmas? Now it’s going to into phase 3 on or just after new years. They are trying to drag it in phase 3 for like 10 days right now but my guess it is does not do that and moves right along. 
 

The weird thing is that despite model guidance showing a prolonged phase 3, it’s still trying to dig that trough in the west which is the opposite of phase 3 during January El Niño. Esp for higher amplitude waves…wonder if we’ll see guidance try to correct a bit as we get closer if that wave stays strong like all the previous ones have. 

It is zipping along. Late November had a low frequency wave in the western IO and near the dateline helping with the cold. Now it’s just zipping along. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

 

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Would this help?

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because the -PNA won’t last forever in a stronger Nino. It will retro eventually. 

He keeps blowing that off...I'm sorry, but this is the difference between passive aggressive trolling and good, objective analysis. If you are going to keep it real, then you need to acknowledge everything and be exhaustive.

[jbenedet]

14 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

It's very difficult to get a weak source region to deliver anything now in the east.  Possible isn't probable and that's the view I'm taking 1h Jan.  We're missing HP in eastern Canada for any length of time outside of that Jan 6-8 period (36-48 hours or so) and that would be the only window I'd say 'maybe' at the moment for the bulk of SNE.  I don't think a coastal works there for snow though outside of the far interior.  Think you'd need overrunning into N/NE winds from the retreating HP.

 

That said, I do think it's a good thing that you've got at least some cold air this side of the pole mid Jan.  The way out of this mild pattern is gonna have to start in the west.  For me personally the game changed once you saw that massive jet extension because of the damage it did to NA snowpack buils and the sheer amount of Pac air over the continent.  At that point any way out was gonna take some time and several step changes.  This is step 1 and 2.

 

For the end month period to deliver, you'd look to see this trough slide eastward around the MLK period and seasonal rebuild of Nino induced heights out west.

I’m in general agreement with all of this. But just want to highlight surface highs can make sneaky appearances.

For one, this map doesn’t at all align with -NAO look in the western Atlantic which is forecasted in the teleconnections out ahead of the Jan 4 disturbance. 

The 6z GFS op is starting to pick up on it…

I believe that trend is real. Too much of a good thing for us northerners, maybe not for the south coast.

Heads up Mid Atlantic.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave was saying that we might not get a p3 response until late month because of lag time and lingering convection in p2 

Olr maps still have lingering convection in p2 at the end of 11-15 day 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

He keeps blowing that off...I'm sorry, but this is the difference between passive aggressive trolling and good, objective analysis. If you are going to keep it real, then you need to acknowledge everything and be exhaustive.

Not sure what posting a composite from years with no relevance in our new climate normal proves anything, sorry.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Allsnow said:

@bluewave was saying that we might not get a p3 response until late month because of lag time and lingering convection in p2 

I would think if we’re getting a high amplitude wave then it should respond. By definition that means we’re getting a lot of convection there. 
 

But yeah, if it sort of tries to go lower amplitude closer to the COD (like many of the ensemble suites right now), then it could see that western trough lasting for well over a week. But if guidance is once again underestimating the speed and amplitude of these waves then I’d expect a change as we get closer…guess we’ll find out soon enough. It would prob start showing up in the next 3-5 days on guidance if that’s the case. 

[jbenedet]

That’s a well timed Canadian surface HP showing up on the 6z GFS. Watch this trend.
 

Pay attention Mid Atlantic/extreme southern New England.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not sure what posting a composite from years with no relevance in our new climate normal proves anything, sorry.

What a troll.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Olr maps still have lingering convection in p2 at the end of 11-15 day 

This I agree with...I used this exact image in my blog yesterday.

[NittanyWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

He keeps blowing that off...I'm sorry, but this is the difference between passive aggressive trolling and good, objective analysis. If you are going to keep it real, then you need to acknowledge everything and be exhaustive.

I think the EC Weeklies are again showing a +EPO reward of NE.  Given all I've discussed about this lately, I don't think it's something you can ignore outright in favor of seasonality and hard transition to +PNA.  There's a transitional window you're gonna need to deal with and there is a risk of more Pac air.

 

Hence my comment about last 10 days of Jan.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would think if we’re getting a high amplitude wave then it should respond. By definition that means we’re getting a lot of convection there. 
 

But yeah, if it sort of tries to go lower amplitude closer to the COD (like many of the ensemble suites right now), then it could see that western trough lasting for well over a week. But if guidance is once again underestimating the speed and amplitude of these waves then I’d expect a change as we get closer…guess we’ll find out soon enough. It would prob start showing up in the next 3-5 days on guidance if that’s the case. 

Agreed. I think we should see improvements out west closer to the 15th. I don’t buy this Nina look as the datline ridge pops and the trough out west moves further west. 
 

Unless the default base state is still Nina and we never get a Nino response. If that’s the case then dollhouses at the 40 yard line please 

[40/70 Benchmark]

General el Nino climo is not significantly altered due to CC.....sure, hedge warmer on surface temps, but the fact that el Nino is more favorable in February is still valid. That is just idiotic to suggest otherwise....Omega is either a moron or a troll, and judging from the balance of his/her posts, its clearly the latter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I think the EC Weeklies are again showing a +EPO reward.  Given all I've discussed about this lately, I don't think it's something you can ignore outright in favor of seasonality.

I didn't say to ignore that and automatically default to climo....what I said was to be exhaustive and consider everything. It was implied there was no reason to entertain a change and I gave a reason.

Period.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Im not one who would qualify as someone who had a favorable view for snow this month until perhaps past MLK and you can look at my posting history about it.

Not saying you did, You just happen to fit my post with your analysis of the upcoming next few weeks, We start getting out into mid month territory without snow or colder air up here, And i'm talking NNE, We will be getting out to the point of no return as far as winter recreation goes outside of skiing, March sun angle beats up the high terrain for snow retention, In some instances, In a way right now, There's so much damage repair that's going on from the monster cutter two weeks ago that it has taken the focus off the lack of snow temporarily here, But we will need to turn this around fairly soon as the clock is ticking everyday we have no cold in place and snow on the models.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. I think we should see improvements out west closer to the 15th. I don’t buy this Nina look as the datline ridge pops and the trough out west moves further west. 
 

Unless the default base state is still Nina and we never get a Nino response. If that’s the case then dollhouses at the 40 yard line please 

If we keep that deeper -PDO influence overwhelming the ENSO signal in the N PAC, then we could be in serious trouble like Jan/Feb ‘73. The only thing on that upper level analog is that the polar region is was pretty awful. I doesn’t seem like that’s going to be the case this winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The Pacific jet is one pathway towards a ruined winter....I can appreciate that without expecting it. This is all I am asking of the other school of thought. Some folks here seem to be close minded.

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not sure what posting a composite from years with no relevance in our new climate normal proves anything, sorry.

I actually agree with you, to a point. However IMHO if this is your position, elaborate, explain, and defend your position instead of dropping one or two line posts that are taken in an inflammatory manner whether or not they were intended that way. 

This is a science discussion forum, and the discussion part is key. From my perspective I appreciate and respect the posters who elaborate and defend their positions, even if I don’t like or don’t agree with their positions. 

Snowman has done a much better job with that this year, and I enjoy his posts for that reason. 

I mean you do you, but I’m actually curious for you to elaborate on these little brief one or two line comment drops you do because I’m genuinely curious about your position, but need more than a snippy sound bite. 

Just my 2c as more of a reader than a contributor. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we keep that deeper -PDO influence overwhelming the ENSO signal in the N PAC, then we could be in serious trouble like Jan/Feb ‘73. The only thing on that upper level analog is that the polar region is was pretty awful. I doesn’t seem like that’s going to be the case this winter. 

Yes. The polar domain is the only aspect of that analog that I didn't like...otherwise, it was great.