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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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the MJO is a bit overstated. nobody gave a flying fuck about it from like 2003 until 2021 until the last couple of winters. they didn't really care because it just kept snowing... now people need to overattribute the lack of snow to a single variable when it isn't that simple

is it important? absolutely! but it's not the end all be all

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the MJO is a bit overstated. nobody gave a flying fuck about it from like 2003 until 2021 until the last couple of winters. they didn't really care because it just kept snowing... now people need to overattribute the lack of snow to a single variable when it isn't that simple

is it important? absolutely! but it's not the end all be all

Hell...even Metsfan took it out of his Sig.

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58 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the MJO is a bit overstated. nobody gave a flying fuck about it from like 2003 until 2021 until the last couple of winters. they didn't really care because it just kept snowing... now people need to overattribute the lack of snow to a single variable when it isn't that simple

is it important? absolutely! but it's not the end all be all

Good post. I was thinking this too. It’s all you hear now. It’s just the latest attribute now. There’s never any one smoking gun, I think we’ve all learned this over the years. But some folks(and not just in here) like to hang their hat on something, so lately it’s been all about that.  
 

We were due for some bad fortune, it’s been here starting in 21-22, so we just grin and endure. 
 

Being away from the board and enjoying winter for 4-5 days was great.  A break from this stuff does wonders. Got to limit time here, when things aren’t looking so good. And check back when something of interest pops up. 

Back on Saturday the 13th, I had 62 degrees here, so if we hit 60, or close to it again Friday, so be it and just enjoy it.  

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39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good post. I was thinking this too. It’s all you hear now. It’s just the latest attribute now. There’s never any one smoking gun, I think we’ve all learned this over the years. But some folks(and not just in here) like to hang their hat on something, so lately it’s been all about that.  
 

We were due for some bad fortune, it’s been here starting in 21-22, so we just grin and endure. 
 

Being away from the board and enjoying winter for 4-5 days was great.  A break from this stuff does wonders. Got to limit time here, when things aren’t looking so good. And check back when something of interest pops up. 

Back on Saturday the 13th, I had 62 degrees here, so if we hit 60, or close to it again Friday, so be it and just enjoy it.  

I'm not grinning. I'll be perfectly honest. It's been taxing.

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The latest collective optimism from reading a few subforms is that Feb 10 on will rock (maybe hopefully probably ) 

I do not think anyone has a clue that correlates to good predictability going out to mid February relating to sensible weather (because it’s insanely complex)

I see reason for some optimism but that is all I would say at this point , bc you can usually find that in most patterns and not that many end up producing well for SE SNE , higher probability more for general SNE (especially if active ) and especially CNE , I think most tend to produce pack for elevated NNE as long as they are active (regarding feb 10 to march 10 period )and that is just the Climo 

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57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good post. I was thinking this too. It’s all you hear now. It’s just the latest attribute now. There’s never any one smoking gun, I think we’ve all learned this over the years. But some folks(and not just in here) like to hang their hat on something, so lately it’s been all about that.  
 

We were due for some bad fortune, it’s been here starting in 21-22, so we just grin and endure. 
 

Being away from the board and enjoying winter for 4-5 days was great.  A break from this stuff does wonders. Got to limit time here, when things aren’t looking so good. And check back when something of interest pops up. 

Back on Saturday the 13th, I had 62 degrees here, so if we hit 60, or close to it again Friday, so be it and just enjoy it.  

Well said. Was nice to sled/ski with the kids for 3-4 straight days at night or weekends. Just have to find the silver lining. Looks like I will be back up to Norbrook Brewery instead for a few rounds of disc golf. Awesome piece of property in Colebrook. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Good post. I was thinking this too. It’s all you hear now. It’s just the latest attribute now. There’s never any one smoking gun, I think we’ve all learned this over the years. But some folks(and not just in here) like to hang their hat on something, so lately it’s been all about that.  
 

We were due for some bad fortune, it’s been here starting in 21-22, so we just grin and endure. 
 

Being away from the board and enjoying winter for 4-5 days was great.  A break from this stuff does wonders. Got to limit time here, when things aren’t looking so good. And check back when something of interest pops up. 

Back on Saturday the 13th, I had 62 degrees here, so if we hit 60, or close to it again Friday, so be it and just enjoy it.  

Were going to add to the base the next 7 days up here, I'm heading back up on friday this week.

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not grinning. I'll be perfectly honest. It's been taxing.

Hey that’s fine, and I get that completely. But being away doing something wintry that I love, and not being on here, was a well needed break. Limiting time here, can do wonders as I said. Too much of this is no good. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very nice. It won’t be this Friday for me.  But maybe end of next week…this work stuff sucks lol. 

lol, I am my own boss and make my schedule, When there is snow, We go, The plan is a 200mi loop on Friday, But that's going to depend on weather conditions up there, So that's what i'm digging into now, Been off the board for several days but see i've not missed much.

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey that’s fine, and I get that completely. But being away doing something wintry that I love, and not being on here, was a well needed break. Limiting time here, can do wonders as I said. Too much of this is no good. 

Welcome back. I highly recommend skimming the last 35 pages or so...you missed some very entertaining stuff.

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39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, I am my own boss and make my schedule, When there is snow, We go, The plan is a 200mi loop on Friday, But that's going to depend on weather conditions up there, So that's what i'm digging into now, Been off the board for several days but see i've not missed much.

Lots of sleds buzzing on the town trails in southern Franklin County, though the scenery isn't quite the equal of the top of Coburn Mt.

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3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS coming around to the Friday torch now some agreement on temps breaking out into the 50s Friday at least south of the Pike .. Near 60 south of 84 looking possible .. Long range also moved towards EURO / EPS with the torch .. Here's the first 5 days of February

 

image.thumb.png.1a660873ce5117a7189da72b5bb936f3.png

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It sure is weird generally seeing more GEFS members and more GFS Op runs wanna be cold....thats the complete reverse of what we've seen most of the last 4 years when we have gotten faked out in the long range....it may be the typical tendency or "rumored tendency" as Tip said that the GFS just generally does worse in El Nino winters and the EPS/Euro tend to do better.

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50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey that’s fine, and I get that completely. But being away doing something wintry that I love, and not being on here, was a well needed break. Limiting time here, can do wonders as I said. Too much of this is no good. 

I think that is a very important point, when there is nothing imminent it’s a generally unhealthy idea for a winter weather lover to spend hours a day on this forum.  
 

More so ..if they are bothered and baited by warmistas, but even in general .
 

Unless someone literally has no other hobby or outlet it seems very odd to just rehash medium to long range hope at periods that have proven to have little accuracy for periods that are longer than ..I dunno 60-90 minutes a day . I think it’s just so easy to fall into the trap of checking in on posts and getting pulled into the drama or the day by reaching into your pocket and logging in 

at least now we have a minor event later today / into Wednesday am and something that hopefully sticks around for Sunday (thou Sunday has a chance for being depressing as it looks like rain for I would say half the SNE forum as currently modeled . 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think that is a very important point, when there is nothing imminent it’s a generally unhealthy idea for a winter weather lover to spend hours a day on this forum.  
 

More so ..if they are bothered and baited by warmistas, but even in general .
 

Unless someone literally has no other hobby or outlet it seems very odd to just rehash medium to long range hope at periods that have proven to have little accuracy for periods that are longer than ..I dunno 60-90 minutes a day . I think it’s just so easy to fall into the trap of checking in on posts and getting pulled into the drama or the day by reaching into your pocket and logging in 

at least now we have a minor event later today / into Wednesday am and something that hopefully sticks around for Sunday (thou Sunday has a chance for being depressing as it looks like rain for I would say half the SNE forum as currently modeled . 

Alternatively, one may enjoy witnessing the emotional carnage on a routine basis, regardless of what the weather may bring.

image.png.2fc6eb513690652aec38446ec9ebfe60.png

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18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think that is a very important point, when there is nothing imminent it’s a generally unhealthy idea for a winter weather lover to spend hours a day on this forum.  
 

More so ..if they are bothered and baited by warmistas, but even in general .
 

Unless someone literally has no other hobby or outlet it seems very odd to just rehash medium to long range hope at periods that have proven to have little accuracy for periods that are longer than ..I dunno 60-90 minutes a day . I think it’s just so easy to fall into the trap of checking in on posts and getting pulled into the drama or the day by reaching into your pocket and logging in 

at least now we have a minor event later today / into Wednesday am and something that hopefully sticks around for Sunday (thou Sunday has a chance for being depressing as it looks like rain for I would say half the SNE forum as currently modeled . 

I find myself getting roped into that sometimes...especially during the fall if cane season blows....but by mid-late February, I plan my escape by way of fantasy draft prep if winter blows.

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13 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

"Torching" down here to start, already 38° and raining steadily, forecast was 34. Good luck up north.... Looks we need we need to wait until at least the 2nd week in February down here for anything wintry....

42F here in E CT, not expecting much in the way of frozen here

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17 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

"Torching" down here to start, already 38° and raining steadily, forecast was 34. Good luck up north.... Looks we need we need to wait until at least the 2nd week in February down here for anything wintry....

Huh, would think Pope would be all over this...yesterday he was tweaking over nothing

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25 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

"Torching" down here to start, already 38° and raining steadily, forecast was 34. Good luck up north.... Looks we need we need to wait until at least the 2nd week in February down here for anything wintry....

Maybe that house fire last night warmed the lower levels.  

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34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The euro caved way more than the gfs for friday afternoon in sne

58 instead of 62 isn’t really caving . The gfs is now 48-52 instead of 38-42 I’d call that more caving. But it’s still 72 hours away so let’s see which is more right. I still think a blend of the super warm euro and the coldest gfs runs so probably high around 50 or so 

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47 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

"Torching" down here to start, already 38° and raining steadily, forecast was 34. Good luck up north.... Looks we need we need to wait until at least the 2nd week in February down here for anything wintry....

Was never supposed to really snow down here much . And any chance we do have for a coating of snow is tonight when temps drop. 

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