Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
 Share

Recommended Posts

K, so ...if anyone's interested - I started a 'medium confidence' thread regarding the 29th ( ish... lol ) system.

Intending it to be almost experimental in the sense that we've see a robust +d(PNA) projected for some time and have been puzzled at how the models et al have shown so little restoring forced system evolution.

It appears tentatively as though that is changing, as has emerged with some continuity and generally agreed upon by cross guidance on or around that date.  Hence the 'monitoring' thread.

Hopefully we can keep it clean?  pleasy weezie with sugar on top

  • Like 4
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

K, so ...if anyone's interested - I started a 'medium confidence' thread regarding the 29th ( ish... lol ) system.

Intending it to be almost experimental in the sense that we've see a robust +d(PNA) projected for some time and have been puzzled at how the models et al have shown so little restoring forced system evolution.

It appears tentatively as though that is changing, as has emerged with some continuity and generally agreed upon by cross guidance on or around that date.  Hence the 'monitoring' thread.

Hopefully we can keep it clean?  pleasy weezie with sugar on top

If nothing else, at least it’s a separate storm focused thread, where us non-Mets can continue to learn little pieces of information, about atmospheric dynamics, 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take omega and snowman all day over him. Why post here is we are all idiots? I don't get it...

We may all have our meltdowns, and there may be some true ********s, there's something seriously wrong with this " Pope " character. Something's not wrapped too tight upstairs. Kind of feel bad for him.

On a different note. I kind of like where the euro is. If you take the other models and go in the middle, this can be good for everyone in southern New England at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We may all have our meltdowns, and there may be some true ********s, there's something seriously wrong with this " Pope " character. Something's not wrapped too tight upstairs. Kind of feel bad for him.
On a different note. I kind of like where the euro is. If you take the other models and go in the middle, this can be good for everyone in southern New England at least.

Anyone who has ever had a toddler can recognize the behavior. Negative attention is still attention. Everyone recognizes who knows their shit and who doesn’t.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, radarman said:

the op GFS idea of a ULL nuking in the GOA day 8/9 seems a lot more typical nino than rotting over central AK or something per the EPS and euro op.  Granted, this hasn't been the most typical nino so far.

This. 

Those touting that this was going to be a milder winter with less snow just because of a strong EL Nino can put the tout in reverse. There was a lot going into this EL Nino which signaled this was not going to be a typical strong EL Nino (regardless of whatever the ONI said) and alot indicating this EL Nino may behave strangely. 

I've been super busy but in the upcoming days I want to look at where we stand thus far in terms of averaged H5 anomalies and compare to your "typical" EL Nino. 

I am curious to see if how things stand now fit the mold of how EL Nino events seemed to have evolved over the past few decades. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know a lot of people here don’t like the Pope because he gets angry sometimes, but we need him. When the weenies get carried away hyping up the next potential blizzard, you can always count on the Pope to show up and smack us down with a heavy dose of reality. I said we would get 100 inches of snow last year, but the Pope smacked that idea down by simply observing the presence of geese in late November. He does things a little differently than most, and yes he has been quite cranky the past couple of years, but he is an excellent long range forecaster. 

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I know a lot of people here don’t like the Pope because he gets angry sometimes, but we need him. When the weenies get carried away hyping up the next potential blizzard, you can always count on the Pope to show up and smack us down with a heavy dose of reality. I said we would get 100 inches of snow last year, but the Pope smacked that idea down by simply observing the presence of geese in late November. He does things a little differently than most, and yes he has been quite cranky the past couple of years, but we need him. 

The geese are gone since the pond froze over

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know a lot of people here don’t like the Pope because he gets angry sometimes, but we need him. When the weenies get carried away hyping up the next potential blizzard, you can always count on the Pope to show up and smack us down with a heavy dose of reality. I said we would get 100 inches of snow last year, but the Pope smacked that idea down by simply observing the presence of geese in late November. He does things a little differently than most, and yes he has been quite cranky the past couple of years, but he is an excellent long range forecaster. 

Wait, I thought @CoastalWx was the designated slap down, weenie deflator? 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Btw, there would need to be a deeper presenting clinical issue than being a weenie online lol

 

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know a lot of people here don’t like the Pope because he gets angry sometimes, but we need him. When the weenies get carried away hyping up the next potential blizzard, you can always count on the Pope to show up and smack us down with a heavy dose of reality. I said we would get 100 inches of snow last year, but the Pope smacked that idea down by simply observing the presence of geese in late November. He does things a little differently than most, and yes he has been quite cranky the past couple of years, but he is an excellent long range forecaster. 

@40/70 Benchmark Does this qualify?

  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know a lot of people here don’t like the Pope because he gets angry sometimes, but we need him. When the weenies get carried away hyping up the next potential blizzard, you can always count on the Pope to show up and smack us down with a heavy dose of reality. I said we would get 100 inches of snow last year, but the Pope smacked that idea down by simply observing the presence of geese in late November. He does things a little differently than most, and yes he has been quite cranky the past couple of years, but he is an excellent long range forecaster. 

you can be the smartest person in the entire world and be right every single time, but if you're an asshole about it, nobody will listen because they'll dislike you. people aren't mad because he's "right", whatever that means in this context. they are mad because he's attacking people and spewing venom

people seem to forget the importance of tact and making people feel good. you see this a shit ton on social media

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Snowfall to date in CT. I'm going to attempt to make a SNE map for the first time for this as well. We'll see how that goes. Reports are from here, cocorahs and official climo sites. 

Next to it is where we were last year at this time, 8 days later to be exact. 

01_22.24_jdj_ct_snowfall_to_date.thumb.jpg.6f5b8f48a49977d50f3cb0b35fddcd2d.jpg01_30.23_jdj_seasonal_snowfall_to_date.thumb.jpg.54f5b41cbb95e9b3da0aff5782049fc7.jpg

Serious Mid Atlantic vibes on those 2 maps....7.6" here in the Southbury valley if you want.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Snowfall to date in CT. I'm going to attempt to make a SNE map for the first time for this as well. We'll see how that goes. Reports are from here, cocorahs and official climo sites. 

Next to it is where we were last year at this time, 8 days later to be exact. 

01_22.24_jdj_ct_snowfall_to_date.thumb.jpg.6f5b8f48a49977d50f3cb0b35fddcd2d.jpg01_30.23_jdj_seasonal_snowfall_to_date.thumb.jpg.54f5b41cbb95e9b3da0aff5782049fc7.jpg

Eerily similar.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know a lot of people here don’t like the Pope because he gets angry sometimes, but we need him. When the weenies get carried away hyping up the next potential blizzard, you can always count on the Pope to show up and smack us down with a heavy dose of reality. I said we would get 100 inches of snow last year, but the Pope smacked that idea down by simply observing the presence of geese in late November. He does things a little differently than most, and yes he has been quite cranky the past couple of years, but he is an excellent long range forecaster. 

You sure you don’t want to reach out to Ray 

  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What the heck is going on in here?

22 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know a lot of people here don’t like the Pope because he gets angry sometimes, but we need him. When the weenies get carried away hyping up the next potential blizzard, you can always count on the Pope to show up and smack us down with a heavy dose of reality. I said we would get 100 inches of snow last year, but the Pope smacked that idea down by simply observing the presence of geese in late November. He does things a little differently than most, and yes he has been quite cranky the past couple of years, but he is an excellent long range forecaster. 

Using geese as a tool for your long range winter forecasts makes you a great long range forecaster? I’d try to find a better example. Unless you are kidding I hope lol

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Snowfall to date in CT. I'm going to attempt to make a SNE map for the first time for this as well. We'll see how that goes. Reports are from here, cocorahs and official climo sites. 

Next to it is where we were last year at this time, 8 days later to be exact. 

01_22.24_jdj_ct_snowfall_to_date.thumb.jpg.6f5b8f48a49977d50f3cb0b35fddcd2d.jpg01_30.23_jdj_seasonal_snowfall_to_date.thumb.jpg.54f5b41cbb95e9b3da0aff5782049fc7.jpg

Almost double my total from last year at this time.  What a winter.  :axe:

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, wkd said:

By the way the New England forum is the best forum (followed by the Mid Atlantic) for learning about synoptics. I only wish Tip would explain the weather in terms I could understand.  Lol 

you aren't alone with that wish.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

A lot of thundersnow in that , that and Feb 2021 were the the last great storms for me with 4” one hour and a ton of Thunder snow .. I think around 15” I’m sure 4 seasons has the map 

These are the big 3 that i always reference that everyone in CT did universally well since Feb 13 (approx 10 years). There were a few other big storms but not this consistent/uniform over CT. 

You can include Jan 16 as well for a big double digit storm, but thats mostly a southern CT special.

Another thing with these 3 was that they were perfectly timed nearly all day-time storms. 

EDIT: and Mar 19

02_01.21_jdj_snowfall_totals.thumb.jpg.7e202f2cc3d562af60c9e9e4f3d515e1.jpg01_04.18_jdj_snowfall_totals.thumb.jpg.d50292c841b964e7a1f82249110d5c69.jpg02_09.17_jdj_snowfall_totals.thumb.jpg.f60c1b01b0900810de060ccbd5d35d4e.jpg

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...