jbenedet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Even the cold-biased GFS is warmer than the NAM. PSM current: 30F Good luck 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, jbenedet said: Even the cold-biased GFS is warmer than the NAM. PSM: 30F Its a global model, which will not resolve a cold tuck adequately....but you (should) know this- 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its a global model, which will not resolve a cold tuck adequately....but you (should) know this- I'm talking about today. Like right now. Read the damn timestamp. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its a global model, which will not resolve a cold tuck adequately....but you (should) know this- He wasn't even posting about the cold tuck...he's posting about whether today's high will be 38F or 33F. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Believe me, I have no interest in ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, jbenedet said: I'm talking about today. Read the damn timestamp. Oh, in that case...60 to Caribou. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2m temps usually are too cool with a mixed BL. Nothing really new there. But PSM hasn’t updated since the 25° at 15z so idk where you got 30°…unless you mean the NAM temp at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 2m temps usually are too cool with a mixed BL. Nothing really new there. But PSM hasn’t updated since the 25° at 15z so idk where you got 30°…unless you mean the NAM temp at 18z. Wine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: He wasn't even posting about the cold tuck...he's posting about whether today's high will be 38F or 33F. You guys are amazing. Hmmm - let's read what our machine is saying today. It's wrong today in a stable atmosphere; 6 hours out - BUT it should be very accurate tomorrow and even more accurate when there's a storm. VERY reliable. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, jbenedet said: You guys are amazing. Hmmm - let's read what our machine is saying today. It's wrong today in a stable atmosphere; 6 hours out - BUT it should be very accurate tomorrow and even more accurate when there's a storm. VERY reliable. This post reminds me of weenies years ago who would say the night before a storm "I'm already down to 25 degrees and the NAM said it would be 28F....this going to be a cold bust!!!", only for it not to matter because boundary layer mixing doesn't really affect anything happening aloft. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: 2m temps usually are too cool with a mixed BL. Nothing really new there. But PSM hasn’t updated since the 25° at 15z so idk where you got 30°…unless you mean the NAM temp at 18z. Wunderground updates every 10/15min. NWS temps will follow if they coincide with station location. https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/nh/portsmouth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This post reminds me of weenies years ago who would say the night before a storm "I'm already down to 25 degrees and the NAM said it would be 28F....this going to be a cold bust!!!", only for it not to matter because boundary layer mixing doesn't really affect anything happening aloft. I was thinking the same, exact thing. Hey, I hope he is right...like I said, I want no part of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This post reminds me of weenies years ago who would say the night before a storm "I'm already down to 25 degrees and the NAM said it would be 28F....this going to be a cold bust!!!", only for it not to matter because boundary layer mixing doesn't really affect anything happening aloft. What is his point -- cancel winter? why does he live in NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, jbenedet said: You guys are amazing. Hmmm - let's read what our machine is saying today. It's wrong today in a stable atmosphere; 6 hours out - BUT it should be very accurate tomorrow and even more accurate when there's a storm. VERY reliable. Pretty much. That’s how 2m verification usually works. Not warm enough with sun and mixing and not cold enough with rad cooling. But the NAM will nail the wedge with precip mid week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Pretty much. That’s how 2m verification usually works. Not warm enough with sun and mixing and not cold enough with rad cooling. But the NAM will nail the wedge with precip mid week. Sounds like he thinks rains to Maines. Maybe he'll give a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 PSM 28 at 16z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: PSM 28 at 16z. Do we have any animations of 250 mbar jetstream winds to help explain this? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: PSM 28 at 16z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs is trying for the end of the month 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Def an improvement on the GFS from previous runs. Still not quite enough for a big event in SNE but it does get advisory snows into CT/RI and maybe even low end warning for SW CT. Not a bad spot 6 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It kinda came back for the 30th storm on GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is trying for the end of the month The 06z Op run was hilariously "cold" from 150 to the end of the run, it tries to sort of 03-04/04-05 the CONUS where basically only the immediate NE and E coast has any semblance of cold air or below normal temps but that is probably a pipe dream as far as things being that good for that stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 PSM: 33 Nice. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That is an interesting evolution though. When is the last time we had mild temps followed by the infusion of arctic air into a storm? That's like one of those Colonial tales of yore lol. Thou was enjoying the day prior to a bitter tempest following thy day after. Cattle blown away and Jebediah's house doth lost its roof. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, CoastalWx said: That is an interesting evolution though. When is the last time we had mild temps followed by the infusion of arctic air into a storm? That's like one of those Colonial tales of yore lol. Thou was enjoying the day prior to a bitter tempest following thy day after. Cattle blown away and Jebediah's house doth lost its roof. 11/29/95 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: 11/29/95 lol That was a weak wave though. I mean a legit nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def an improvement on the GFS from previous runs. Still not quite enough for a big event in SNE but it does get advisory snows into CT/RI and maybe even low end warning for SW CT. Not a bad spot 6 days out. I'll take that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def an improvement on the GFS from previous runs. Still not quite enough for a big event in SNE but it does get advisory snows into CT/RI and maybe even low end warning for SW CT. Not a bad spot 6 days out. It’s not far from being a pretty good hit honestly. Not a bad spot indeed at this lead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That is close to a very nice solution...story of the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now