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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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End of the 6z control eps, this is probably a big interior hit. There were some big hits on the 00z eps for interior. You have that piece diving down from Canada which should keep the main low far enough S to not run too far inland. Timing of the waves is important here. Interest peeked for 12z, I could use a chase. Posting control because it’s pretty much the OP extrapolated
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we could catch a break next Monday, I think that could go a long way towards flipping the script on this season for SNE.

Yeah if we got like a moderate 4-8/6-10 type event next Monday, that would for sure change the feel...it would put many above average for January.

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The result of pulling the tractor out from underneath the collapsed tent. Not sure I'm going to be able to clean that up until spring. One of the bars had fallen right onto the horn button and the thing was blaring for God knows how long. Couldn't hear it from inside the house. Luckily it didn't drain the battery to the point it wouldn't start.

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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of the 6z control eps, this is probably a big interior hit. There were some big hits on the 00z eps for interior. You have that piece diving down from Canada which should keep the main low far enough S to not run too far inland. Timing of the waves is important here. Interest peeked for 12z, I could use a chase. Posting control because it’s pretty much the OP extrapolated








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06z EPS is definitely more amped for next Monday than the 00z run....will be interesting to see if that trend is real....12z should be interesting and I'd like to see other guidance become more bullish.

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

NAM is tracking way too cold. Shocker.

HRRR even worse.

PSM is already 26. 

namconus_T2m_neus_3.thumb.png.1f9cd05e0843903c6c2f77d54c5dc4e8.png

That's for 14z which was 50 minutes ago....PSM was still only 21 at that point and MHT was 16F...it doesn't look that bad.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's for 14z which was 50 minutes ago....PSM was still only 21 at that point and MHT was 16F...it doesn't look that bad.

Okay. Do 15z.

PSM 27.

It's about 5 degrees too cold.

Has a high here of 33. PSM will push 40 today.

namconus_T2m_neus_4.png

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06z EPS is definitely more amped for next Monday than the 00z run....will be interesting to see if that trend is real....12z should be interesting and I'd like to see other guidance become more bullish.

A lot comes down to that N/S piece up in Canada. Euro rides that more W to E. GFS dives it farther SE which kind of pushes low farther SE. Tentative balance


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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the hi res models have a cold tucky look later Wednesday. 

That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly.

Might be the pike north, after being at 5F two hours ago I am at 27F so will the warm air win out at lower levels down here?

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly.

Especially with light fall rates, the residual cold will be slow to erode with any type of replenishing advection process at all...ironically enough we would be better off with heavy precip.

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6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Might be the pike north, after being at 5F two hours ago I am at 27F so will the warm air win out at lower levels down here?

I'm not sold on a cold tuck for any of us in SNE later Wednesday, but it would def favor further northeast where the source is if it happens. I wouldn't look at today's temps as any predictor of what a cold tuck would do 60 hours from now. 

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