Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 End of the 6z control eps, this is probably a big interior hit. There were some big hits on the 00z eps for interior. You have that piece diving down from Canada which should keep the main low far enough S to not run too far inland. Timing of the waves is important here. Interest peeked for 12z, I could use a chase. Posting control because it’s pretty much the OP extrapolated. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno, I could see either verifying....esp down in SNE....if I was further north up into S NH, I'd def fade the Euro. Especially south of Union CT where the warmth blasts in unabated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NAM looks better tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno, I could see either verifying....esp down in SNE....if I was further north up into S NH, I'd def fade the Euro. We have enough trouble getting 60’s in Mayorch . I’ll be completely shocked if there’s 60’s Friday unless it’s a DSD in E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we could catch a break next Monday, I think that could go a long way towards flipping the script on this season for SNE. Yeah if we got like a moderate 4-8/6-10 type event next Monday, that would for sure change the feel...it would put many above average for January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The result of pulling the tractor out from underneath the collapsed tent. Not sure I'm going to be able to clean that up until spring. One of the bars had fallen right onto the horn button and the thing was blaring for God knows how long. Couldn't hear it from inside the house. Luckily it didn't drain the battery to the point it wouldn't start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: End of the 6z control eps, this is probably a big interior hit. There were some big hits on the 00z eps for interior. You have that piece diving down from Canada which should keep the main low far enough S to not run too far inland. Timing of the waves is important here. Interest peeked for 12z, I could use a chase. Posting control because it’s pretty much the OP extrapolated . 06z EPS is definitely more amped for next Monday than the 00z run....will be interesting to see if that trend is real....12z should be interesting and I'd like to see other guidance become more bullish. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Pretty decent rebound on temps, I was hovering around 5-6F just about an hour ago and now up to 20F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NAM is looking a little more intriguing for the upcoming slop this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 You know...if I grab 2" mid week, and then several early next week, that puts me over 30" on the month. Not too bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Pretty decent rebound on temps, I was hovering around 5-6F just about an hour ago and now up to 20F NAM is tracking way too cold. Shocker. HRRR even worse. PSM is already 26. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: NAM is tracking way too cold. Shocker. HRRR even worse. PSM is already 26. That's for 14z which was 50 minutes ago....PSM was still only 21 at that point and MHT was 16F...it doesn't look that bad. 1 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You know...if I grab 2" mid week, and then several early next week, that puts me over 30" on the month. Not too bad. That's what I was trying to tell Debra Scoots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's what I was trying to tell Debra Scoots. Well, far from a certainty next week works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's for 14z which was 50 minutes ago....PSM was still only 21 at that point and MHT was 16F...it doesn't look that bad. Okay. Do 15z. PSM 27. It's about 5 degrees too cold. Has a high here of 33. PSM will push 40 today. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NAM has a myriad of different issues as a model, but I thermals fields in warm advection scenarios is not one of them.....its the one thing that I DO trust it with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 06z EPS is definitely more amped for next Monday than the 00z run....will be interesting to see if that trend is real....12z should be interesting and I'd like to see other guidance become more bullish.A lot comes down to that N/S piece up in Canada. Euro rides that more W to E. GFS dives it farther SE which kind of pushes low farther SE. Tentative balance . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Some of the hi res models have a cold tucky look later Wednesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, CoastalWx said: Some of the hi res models have a cold tucky look later Wednesday. Hoping for a couple here.. maybe a little ip/zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 You know there is a legit chance when Heiny lurks in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of the hi res models have a cold tucky look later Wednesday. That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly. Might be the pike north, after being at 5F two hours ago I am at 27F so will the warm air win out at lower levels down here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly. Especially with light fall rates, the residual cold will be slow to erode with any type of replenishing advection process at all...ironically enough we would be better off with heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You know there is a legit chance when Heiny lurks in here. I think heisy would say it’s a long shot , but that’s my guess (for anything big) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think heisy would say it’s a long shot , but that’s my guess (for anything big) He doesn't lurk unless its reaslistic.....but yea, a big dog would require come real luck...but a mod event is well within reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A mod event would certainly help my state of mind about this winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ICON was close for next Sunday....gave S RI over to far SE MA advisory type snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Might be the pike north, after being at 5F two hours ago I am at 27F so will the warm air win out at lower levels down here? I am worried about ice in my area....any power disruption is fatal with 3 kids under the age of 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Might be the pike north, after being at 5F two hours ago I am at 27F so will the warm air win out at lower levels down here? I'm not sold on a cold tuck for any of us in SNE later Wednesday, but it would def favor further northeast where the source is if it happens. I wouldn't look at today's temps as any predictor of what a cold tuck would do 60 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: ICON was close for next Sunday....gave S RI over to far SE MA advisory type snows. Sounds like the 00z OP EURO...maybe a hair less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now