CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everything involving snow is suspect and not ideal. Since Feb 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS. No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño. Next year we go right back to strong Nina. Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity The ENSO models are gonna be brutally wrong if we get a strong Nina...not a single one really brings us below -0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS. No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño. Next year we go right back to strong Nina. Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity Well, given how much tropical activity is expected, its worth considering that high ACE La Nina seasons have been pretty good in the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I may lose it if we find our way to February with nothing imminent after having succeeded in pulling that off....this is about the point at which I came unhinged last year. 18z GFS repeats that motif... Impressive +d(PNA) --> zero restoring response-related events, anywhere. Bit unusual ... but then again, we seem to live in an era where unusual sentiment has become usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 18z GFS repeats that motif... Impressive +d(PNA) --> zero restoring response-related events, anywhere. Bit unusual ... but then again, we seem to live in an era where unusual sentiment has become usual. "Bend over and find that orifice to stuff "- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Looks like a couple light events and maybe some light rain for NNE. Hope they can hold the pack for the first week in Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like a couple light events and maybe some light rain for NNE. Hope they can hold the pack for the first week in Feb Doubtful. What kind of discount are you running for your reservations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, kdxken said: Doubtful. What kind of discount are you running for your reservations? … I have to go this team regardless if there is snow or not. We hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like a couple light events and maybe some light rain for NNE. Hope they can hold the pack for the first week in Feb NNE won’t lose any pack between now and 2/1. Remains to be seen how warm it gets beyond that….somewhere after the first few days of the month looks warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So are we calling this season quits? From all the recent posts it seems to be that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NNE won’t lose any pack between now and 2/1. Remains to be seen how warm it gets beyond that….somewhere after the first few days of the month looks warm. Good, I’m there 1/31 to 2/4. Lots of activities lined up pending snowpack 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So are we calling this season quits? From all the recent posts it seems to be that way. No, but it looks like January may be quits. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS. No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño. Next year we go right back to strong Nina. Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity Can’t shake all the warm waters in awful mjo phases 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Good, I’m there 1/31 to 2/4. Lots of activities lined up pending snowpack Ill be there 2-4th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 All 3 major ensemble suites are locked and loaded in agreement on about 3-4" (10:1) over most of SNE off of the south coast over the next two weeks. That blows dead penguins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Can’t shake all the warm waters in awful mjo phases This winter isn't over and I still feel snowfall makes a nice comeback.....but that said, regardless of what happens from here on out...my largest lesson gleaned this season is with respect to the how interpret the MEI/RONI concepts. I have always perceived it as lower readings of those metrics was synonymous with a simply weaker expression of ENSO, however, Bluewave really cystralized it with me in describing lower MEI/RONI as reflective instead of "competing forces". Just that two word clarification will make me a better seasonal forecaster moving forward. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Can’t shake all the warm waters in awful mjo phases voodoo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: voodoo Probably the most accurate thing you’ve said all winter. Enso, mei, mjo, it’s all voodoo. It’s as accurate as the junkies giving gambling pics on the 1-800 line, sports pundits giving predictions during the pre-game show, or Jim Cramer. Info-tainment I call it. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This winter isn't over and I still feel snowfall makes a nice comeback.....but that said, regardless of what happens from here on out...my largest lesson gleaned this season is with respect to the how interpret the MEI/RONI concepts. I have always perceived it as lower readings of those metrics was synonymous with a simply weaker expression of ENSO, however, Bluewave really cystralized it with me in describing lower MEI/RONI as reflective instead of "competing forces". Just that two word explanation will make me a better seasonal forecaster moving forward. Your seasonal stuff has been excellent to read. I don’t do long range stuff but applaud the ones that do. If you’re wrong you get called out and if you’re correct it gets forgotten about. @bluewave seems to be one step ahead of everyone currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Allsnow said: Your seasonal stuff has been excellent to read. I don’t do long range stuff but applaud the ones that do. If you’re wrong you get called out and if you’re correct it gets forgotten about. @bluewave seems to be one step ahead of everyone currently. What is Bluewave saying for Feb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: What is Bluewave saying for Feb You would need to ask him as I won’t speak for him without knowing. He likes to take forecasting 2 weeks at a time 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Your seasonal stuff has been excellent to read. I don’t do long range stuff but applaud the ones that do. If you’re wrong you get called out and if you’re correct it gets forgotten about. @bluewave seems to be one step ahead of everyone currently. We were more on the same page than it ostensibly seemed, but my perception of what exactly the RONI and MEI were trying to convey was a bit astray, which impacted my interpretation of which hemispheric elements would be most prominent this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Probably the most accurate thing you’ve said all winter. Enso, mei, mjo, it’s all voodoo. It’s as accurate as the junkies giving gambling pics on the 1-800 line, sports pundits giving predictions during the pre-game show, or Jim Cramer. Info-tainment I call it. It's "voodoo" on a regional scale, usually. Not always 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You would need to ask him as I won’t speak for him without knowing. He likes to take forecasting 2 weeks at a time Webb made a good point about the Indian Ocean forcing being more favorable in Feb/March than Dec/Jan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I will also add that seasonal forecasting is much more viable in two week increments than 2-3 month increments, which is probably why Bluewave does it that way. I focus more on the medium range during the winter season, at the expense of the extended stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This winter isn't over and I still feel snowfall makes a nice comeback.....but that said, regardless of what happens from here on out...my largest lesson gleaned this season is with respect to the how interpret the MEI/RONI concepts. I have always perceived it as lower readings of those metrics was synonymous with a simply weaker expression of ENSO, however, Bluewave really cystralized it with me in describing lower MEI/RONI as reflective instead of "competing forces". Just that two word clarification will make me a better seasonal forecaster moving forward. What would you change this year based on that idea? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: It's "voodoo" on a regional scale, usually. Not always Pretty much. Macro forecasting is typically easier because you don’t have to worry about smaller scale nuances that can’t be predicted in advance. Stuff like NAO blocks have proven time and again to be mostly stochastic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: sports pundits giving predictions during the pre-game show, This is a great analogy. Guys like Jimmy Johnson and Bill Cowher have a thousand times the football knowledge compared with myself....probably more. Are they better than me at picking games? Not by one iota. It goes to show ya. Predictions are hard....especially about the future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: What would you change this year based on that idea? A lot of it would have been with respect to the narrative in how I explained things....less emphasis on a "weaker" expression of El Niño resulting from the west PAC warm pool and more emphasis on the El Niño having to compete with it. I guess it just has more to do with my understanding and conceptualization of the El Niño/hemisphere interface., which will make my forecasts in the future better. As far as the forecast itself this season, I would have emphasized 2015 more as an eary season analog and been warmer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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