40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro repeated the 28th/29th thingy. Fast moving NJ model low of minoring consequence. It seems what's going on with all the operational runs is that they are attempting a transition into a strong +d(PNA) - however transient, notwithstanding - and having nothing happen as a result. Because it's not abundantly clear any system on the 28th is really tied to the former large scale changes, and after that ...there's nothing but an 18 hour cold snap. I guess that's possible too I may lose it if we find our way to February with nothing imminent after having succeeded in pulling that off....this is about the point at which I came unhinged last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Shit I would take the Euro all day. Snow on snow then quick typical Jan thaw then let's go. I find that evolution awfully disapointing and hope that its wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Eric Webb likes winter to return in a big way after this huge warmup in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Sun sets early in the woods. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eric Webb likes winter to return in a big way after this huge warmup in February May not be much of a warmup north of NYC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What’s Euro got Tuesday night/ Wednesday… 2-4”? Yea about right. Good ratios to start 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, kdxken said: Sun sets early in the woods. I love that picture. That looks very much like my backwoods, and I just took a long wander. So awesome to have at least just a few inches of snow on the ground for those kinds of walks, and that kind of light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: May not be much of a warmup north of NYC 2nd run in a row showing this 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eric Webb likes winter to return in a big way after this huge warmup in February He has been good this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 2nd run in a row showing this Sey-Mour Wedgie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I am very disappointed in this winter, or at least this month. I am very happy I got 10.5'' in that storm a few weeks back and earlier this week got like 3-4'' and to fall during the day when I can just work at my desk and watch it snowing outside. Now February could deliver, but I for sure thought we would have been smacked this month. While I was aggressive in my winter thinking, it was certainly in the back of my mind it may not work out that way. What's been the more frustrating aspect though is the trolls who just come in here now and then and waste 2 of their 5 posts claiming to be the next Messiah or whoever and said they knew how this winter would be because of the EL Nino strength. That is hog wash bullshit. I've said this before, but when it comes to long-range or seasonal forecasting and getting into specifics such as seasonal snowfall or understanding what patterns will deliver and when, we're lacking something to help with this understanding. When it comes to winter storms in the Northeast, we have the Northeast Snowstorms books which is the meteorology version of the Bible. These books are absolutely incredible. When it comes to severe weather/tornadoes we have Significant Tornadoes book and studies on major outbreaks. Essentially we have an uncanny amount of information on events and patterns which produced. I know the Northeast Snowstorms volumes go into some of the near hits and misses, but IMO we really are lacking in this department. I really wish we had the ability to create some database on this. We all know and understand ridge in west and trough in east is generally good for winter lovers in the Northeast. But this doesn't always work out and what we don't know is the probability. There has been work done by various forum members over the years breaking down snowfall statistics and typing into ENSO phase, ENSO structure, and even incorporating NAO, AO, PDO, etc. None of the correlations ever seemed strikingly high though. One thing I want to do soon is go back and revisit December/January and create daily composites and watch how everything unfolded day-to-day. Part of what makes things worse too is how we are assessing and looking for storm threats. I remember back when I first joined the boards and even through the early 2010's...there would be alot of focus on upper-levels and pattern evolution. Now that still happens and some do try to provide that insight but it gets drowned out. Now its just OP SLP/QPF maps 300+ hours out being used as a baseline to justify there is a storm potential or just claiming an upcoming stretch has "potential" because the snowfall maps for a period show 40''. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: He has been good this season. So I'm a bit confused. When's the warm-up slated for in February? And when's this winter return happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: See-Mour Wedgie I’ll be ready for some yard work Friday! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I am very disappointed in this winter, or at least this month. I am very happy I got 10.5'' in that storm a few weeks back and earlier this week got like 3-4'' and to fall during the day when I can just work at my desk and watch it snowing outside. Now February could deliver, but I for sure thought we would have been smacked this month. While I was aggressive in my winter thinking, it was certainly in the back of my mind it may not work out that way. What's been the more frustrating aspect though is the trolls who just come in here now and then and waste 2 of their 5 posts claiming to be the next Messiah or whoever and said they knew how this winter would be because of the EL Nino strength. That is hog wash bullshit. I've said this before, but when it comes to long-range or seasonal forecasting and getting into specifics such as seasonal snowfall or understanding what patterns will deliver and when, we're lacking something to help with this understanding. When it comes to winter storms in the Northeast, we have the Northeast Snowstorms books which is the meteorology version of the Bible. These books are absolutely incredible. When it comes to severe weather/tornadoes we have Significant Tornadoes book and studies on major outbreaks. Essentially we have an uncanny amount of information on events and patterns which produced. I know the Northeast Snowstorms volumes go into some of the near hits and misses, but IMO we really are lacking in this department. I really wish we had the ability to create some database on this. We all know and understand ridge in west and trough in east is generally good for winter lovers in the Northeast. But this doesn't always work out and what we don't know is the probability. There has been work done by various forum members over the years breaking down snowfall statistics and typing into ENSO phase, ENSO structure, and even incorporating NAO, AO, PDO, etc. None of the correlations ever seemed strikingly high though. One thing I want to do soon is go back and revisit December/January and create daily composites and watch how everything unfolded day-to-day. Part of what makes things worse too is how we are assessing and looking for storm threats. I remember back when I first joined the boards and even through the early 2010's...there would be alot of focus on upper-levels and pattern evolution. Now that still happens and some do try to provide that insight but it gets drowned out. Now its just OP SLP/QPF maps 300+ hours out being used as a baseline to justify there is a storm potential or just claiming an upcoming stretch has "potential" because the snowfall maps for a period show 40''. The big January flip worked out, but its too bad that the PV lobes were too close to one another. That said, its definitely been warmer than we both thought in the aggregate this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 2nd run in a row showing this Bdl tickle 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The big January flip worked out, but its too bad that the PV loves were to close to one another. That said, its definitely been warmer than we both thought in the aggregate this season. it does look like we're going to see the same jet overextension and retraction that led to the very favorable pattern this month. this time, though, it'll be in Feb with shorter wavelengths and a more potent Aleutian low to allow for stronger shortwaves to enter the flow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The big January flip worked out, but its too bad that the PV loves were to close to one another. That said, its definitely been warmer than we both thought in the aggregate this season. It's a situation like this though which really drives me further. TBH, I feel like I would have learned much more from this winter being totally wrong versus being more right than wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it does look like we're going to see the same jet overextension and retraction that led to the very favorable pattern this month. this time, though, it'll be in Feb with shorter wavelengths and a more potent Aleutian low to allow for stronger shortwaves to enter the flow Yup...and with that I am not giving up on February. Let the trolls do whatever they want to do. But the potential is there and that's all we can roll with. If signs were pointing to big torch and massive ridge then I'd give up but that is not the case. Sure we'll see that but it will be temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's a situation like this though which really drives me further. TBH, I feel like I would have learned much more from this winter being totally wrong versus being more right than wrong. Or being right for the wrong reasons. Still, seasonal forecasts that are based on tons of research and data crunching are applauded. Most on here know this so keep going after it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's a situation like this though which really drives me further. TBH, I feel like I would have learned much more from this winter being totally wrong versus being more right than wrong. I always say I learn more from the missed seasonal outlooks than I do the hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 2nd run in a row showing this We know how these work . Take the under . It’ll mild sure but lol at 60’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We know how these work . Take the under . It’ll mild sure but lol at 60’s I’ll buy it if the boundary is north. Perfectly reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll buy it if the boundary is north. Perfectly reasonable. Not with a - NAO. Sell her off .. We have trouble enough at 60’s in May. We aren’t NJ lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not with a - NAO. Sell her off .. We have trouble enough at 60’s in May. We aren’t NJ lol It’s a +NAO. Beer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 That PNA spike for the Tippy blizzard looks a little sus to me. Not sure the location is ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a +NAO. Beer? It’s transitioning .. like you 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s transitioning .. like you Both a hard no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That PNA spike for the Tippy blizzard looks a little sus to me. Not sure the location is ideal. Everything involving snow is suspect and not ideal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I find that evolution awfully disapointing and hope that its wrong. Looks too cold, go warmer the MJO plus PAC extension favor record warmth. Very little to no cold records with this current airmass (Northeast) but likely record warmth on Friday and then again late next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I may lose it if we find our way to February with nothing imminent after having succeeded in pulling that off....this is about the point at which I came unhinged last year. Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS. No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño. Next year we go right back to strong Nina. Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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