January 2024 -- Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think there’s a small window to sneak it north on Thursday but it quickly gets erased with the approaching low pressure from the southwest which re-establishes the wedge. 

No window on the 12z GGEM  - fwiw...  But, all chiding and popular bs aside, that is the most climate sounds solution I've frankly seen re that attempted warm thrust.

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My sister lives in N Charlestown.

Ah man, that must be pretty rough in terms of snow. I frequent the Home Depot in Claremont and I'm always amazed how little snow there is compared to further east and up the hill. The Connecticut river valley does seems to do everyone dirty. I went to school at Umass Amherst so I know it well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The idea as I said it, is that the present 850 mb layouts from those same means, for the 29th, is warm - but might "correct" in future guidance.  It was an implicit suggestion relating to model behavior/biases at this range...

But yes ... in a 101 synoptic sense of it, a western N/A ridge is a cooler flow over the eastern N/A region.   But here's thing ... this kind of gets into other facets but, the warmth seems to dominate very quickly when the cold sourcing pulls out - that's a change over earlier generation.  Hint hint. heh   When the spigot turns off in the form of the N/stream going flat across higher latitudes, there seems to be an "acceleration" where cold air moderates faster than it used to years and years ago. 

Like I said, it gets into another discussion... but reiterating, ' it seems mid latitudes have a tougher time being winter, in winter, when there isn't a direct feed of arctic air as a static delivery .'   To exaggerate for point, it's either 15 to 20 F, or 45 ...   The system we had that gave the 6 to 15" regionally a couple weeks ago - that's getting increasingly rarer.  31 F unperturbed snow storms. 

Anyway, the current projected +PNA is occurring without an antecedent cold source. Perhaps owing to the above idea, it's like a favorable flow structure that is warmer than climo suggests it should be.

I suggested last year to Will and Scott that perhaps my area getting boned relative to the region for so long was a some sort of manifestation of CC, but I couldn't quite articulate why....this would be the smoking gun, IMO.....less marginal events, which is where my area shines relative to the coast. An increasingly large percentage of our heavier snow events are coming during arctic infiltration, which leaves my area prone to that FU sliver of drier air from Maine that couples with subsistence downwind from the ascent from coastal front shenanigans to foster a relative min in snowfall for my area in larger events. We would ironically enough see more coastal, CJ jackpots in this situation as a result of CC.

Fun k me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Ah man, that must be pretty rough in terms of snow. I frequent the Home Depot in Claremont and I'm always amazed how little snow there is compared to further east and up the hill. The Connecticut river valley does seems to do everyone dirty. I went to school at Umass Amherst so I know it well. 

Yea, it's a relative snow min, but still beats the hell out of SNE....they actually were a jackpot zone in the December 2020 orgy, though....got into that band from NYS before it died.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suggested last year to Will and Scott that perhaps my area getting boned relative to the region for so long was a some sort of manifestation of CC, but I couldn't quite articulate why....this would be the smoking gun, IMO.....less marginal events, which is where my area shines relative to the coast. An increasingly large percentage of our heavier snow events are coming during arctic infiltration, which leaves me area prone to that FU sliver of drier air from Maine that couples with subsistence downwind from the ascent from coastal front shenanigans to foster a relative min in snowfall for my area in larger events. We would ironically enough see more coastal, CJ jackpots in this situation as a result of CC.

Fun k me.

Ocean temps have hurt a bit and terrible antecedent airmasses. It doesn’t have to be Arctic cold by any means. 
 

There’s a lot of heat content right now in the gulf of Maine. We’ve had a pretty cold  stretch for a week now and SSTs have barely budged. That’s telling. 

[dryslot]

13 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks awesome pal. Congratulations on the new iron.  Up in the County…plenty of snow is right.   It’s good to be back. 310 miles the last two days…one more day to go. 

Nice JD, 221mi rode another 65 this morning and now heading back.

[Typhoon Tip]

Didn't this happen last year on that similar date ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Didn't this happen last year on that similar date ?

My son was born then....it was frigid and dry...like 12 below here.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ocean temps have hurt a bit and terrible antecedent airmasses. It doesn’t have to be Arctic cold by any means. 
 

There’s a lot of heat content right now in the gulf of Maine. We’ve had a pretty cold  stretch for a week now and SSTs have barely budged. That’s telling. 

That is something, huh -

[40/70 Benchmark]

Shit, maybe I should relocate to the N shore.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shit, maybe I should relocate to the N shore.

Good roast beef sandwiches lol.

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suggested last year to Will and Scott that perhaps my area getting boned relative to the region for so long was a some sort of manifestation of CC, but I couldn't quite articulate why....this would be the smoking gun, IMO.....less marginal events, which is where my area shines relative to the coast. An increasingly large percentage of our heavier snow events are coming during arctic infiltration, which leaves my area prone to that FU sliver of drier air from Maine that couples with subsistence downwind from the ascent from coastal front shenanigans to foster a relative min in snowfall for my area in larger events. We would ironically enough see more coastal, CJ jackpots in this situation as a result of CC.

Fun k me.

Highly doubt CC has “created” a 15 mile wide screw zine where you are. That’s so small and nuanced it is extremely unlikely. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good roast beef sandwiches lol.

Honestly contemplating whether this area will be a relative snow pit for the next 40, 50 years....plan on upgrading one more time soon and then that is it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Highly doubt CC has “created” a 15 mile wide screw zine where you are. That’s so small and nuanced it is extremely unlikely. 

But does what I suggested makes sense? John seemed to think so.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We need rain 

My  car is a mess

Don’t you worry. Plenty coming. Deep winter rolls on…

[weathafella]

Nuances Ray.  Over a long period of time there will always be strings of crappy years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, CC is pissah.....mutant phase 5 that swallows the world and only leaves -PDO....and every major snowstorm that we do get is a CJ. 

Hopefully I have dementia in 30 years, so weather will still be fun.

[Damage In Tolland]

Is it time to start a thread for the Tuesday night /Wed snow and ice deal? Couple inches to ice to drizzle 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly contemplating whether this area will be a relative snow pit for the next 40, 50 years....plan on upgrading one more time soon and then that is it.

I doubt it. I think it’s more nuances. Just like how this area has seen some absurd totals that aren’t sustainable. I feel like the opposite is true there. You’ll make up ground.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I doubt it. I think it’s more nuances. Just like how this area has seen some absurd totals that aren’t sustainable. I feel like the opposite is true there. You’ll make up ground.

That is how I have alway felt.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But does what I suggested makes sense? John seemed to think so.

I liked the 'effort'    Thinking like, " Meteorological + climatological)/2  " is a virtue in attempted reasoning - there's a lot more merit in that approach than knee jerk dismissal of climate changing being involved ... in any of this shit for that matter.  I grow just as tired of auto-reliance on the mantra that because climate is longer term averages, it cannot describe the discrete event profile.

First of all.... that logically can be argued against.  For example, if the climate is getting warmer.... that means that all the discrete events that are in the means have in fact been getting warmer.  At some point, the mean is a representation of that.  People are confusing the rightful idea of not using climate to predict a singular event, with it meaning that the singular event's results were not relatable.  That dubiously smacks as a rationalization, no different than any other bargaining/denial psycho-babble that happens when someone is faced with a truth they cannot tolerate -

 

[H2Otown_WX]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, CC is pissah.....mutant phase 5 that swallows the world and only leaves -PDO....and every major snowstorm that we do get is a CJ. 

Hopefully I have dementia in 30 years, so weather will still be fun.

One of your funniest posts in a while. Sounds like the opposite of The Day After Tomorrow. A Torch Tiger and qg_omega take over. The only events that show up on models are part of the Fraud Five. Just constant backlash and inverted trof scenarios lol.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But does what I suggested makes sense? John seemed to think so.

I dunno…it’s anecdotal to me to say “we’re mostly getting 17F south shore Coke line storms” with CC. 
 

Id honestly say the opposite, but that’s the beauty of anecdotes….we basically just tell our own story of obs. The truth would require doing an independent tally of these storms and the temps. Those frigid coke line storms happened with so much frequency years ago from the 1990s into early 2000s. Recently, that area has been taken the woodshed…really since the 2015 snowgasm. 
 

But trying to parse out CC attribution on SNE snowstorm jackpots over a 6 year period is probably between impossible and harder than impossible. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I liked the 'effort'    Thinking like, " Meteorological + climatological)/2  " is a virtue in attempted reasoning - there's a lot more merit in that approach than knee jerk dismissal of climate changing being involved ... in any of this shit for that matter.  I grow just as tired of auto-reliance on the mantra that because climate is longer term averages, it cannot describe the discrete event profile.

First of all.... that logically can be argued against.  If the climate is getting warmer.... that means that all the discrete events that are in the means have in fact been getting warmer.  At some point, the mean is a representation of that.  People are confusing the rightful idea of not using climate to predict a singular event, with it meaning that the singular event's results were not relatable.  That dubiously smacks as a rationalization, no different than any other bargaining/denial psycho-babble that happens when someone is faced with a truth they cannot tolerate -

 

The funny thing is I was going to say to Ray (and then subsequently forgot) is that CC warming would probably try to inch to mean position of the CF westward…which would help him. I don’t know if that’s actually the case, but from a conceptual standpoint it makes sense. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The funny thing is I was going to say to Ray (and then subsequently forgot) is that CC warming would probably try to inch to mean position of the CF westward…which would help him. I don’t know if that’s actually the case, but from a conceptual standpoint it makes sense. 

I think where Ray was focusing his comment though, was in the facet of needing 'direct cold source'/feed mechanics as an increasing sort prerequisite  ...  "marginal" events are rarefying.   I too have surmised as much in the past. I used to whimsy refer to that as our "flop direction" used to be on the cold side of fence events. Our region seemed to sneak cross a threshold over the last 15 years, an innocuous one, where now we're more cat paws and liquid.  etc etc. 

But from his perspective, if there is a direct cold feed taking place, it tends to be a hygroscopic sink - and he ends up with a moisture deficit that by circumstance happens to consumes fall-rates more so over SE NH into NE MA.  

That makes just as much plausible sense to me as what you are suggesting - which yeah...I could see warm modulation from the E on average tending to move west, too.  But then we'd have to look at CF versus less obvious CF events, versus the former.  It'd be complex and nuanced; there could concurrency going on, too.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Lets start breaking some sort of records, whether its snow, cold, rain, or heat records I don't really care. I just want something interesting for a change. 

[weathafella]

To me the best CC argument is the increasing number of hundies in summer.   And if we fail at 100 we’re almost sure to hit upper 90s with a notable exception being 2023.  When I was in school, a/c was needed occasionally.  Now it’s almost non stop in sne.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

To me the best CC argument is the increasing number of hundies in summer.   And of we fail at 100 we’re almost sure to hit upper 90s with a notable exception being 2023.  When I was in school, a/c was needed occasionally.  Now it’s almost non stop in sne.

I feel like top end high temps have been less frequent but the humidity has been higher. That’s fairly consistent though since it’s hard to get reach high end maximum temps with humid airmasses. You want dry airmasses. 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like top end high temps have been less frequent but the humidity has been higher. That’s fairly consistent though since it’s hard to get reach high end maximum temps with humid airmasses. You want dry airmasses. 

Excuse the pun, but I agree 100 % with the bold statement.

It's not even just anecdotal.  The increasing humidity and rain rates in the MA and coastal New England has already been papered.  

I'd like to say "talking way off in the future," but given recent accelerations - that can launch a separate debate.  But... I almost wonder if a Jurassic climate return would be more sub-tropical ... I don't know about tropical ferns per se... but already, have any of you actually taken a walk through the woods in mid summers as of late.  I've noticed them dripping ... rain forest style, when the adjacent field is 88/76 under baking sun - in itself getting harder to believe that DP elevation is just garden DP phenomenon.   This is a "more and more" type aspect - not every time.  But there are subtle, creeping changes if people pay attention.

It seems that could be a natural transition with increasing S-SE, as oppose to the S-SW flow types in summers.  That is already been papered - the Bermuda high repositioning farther N is causing wetter inflow tendencies into the Mid Atlantic. 

[George001]

Yeah, I would think CC warming would screw us on the coastal plain since we already battle temps more to begin with. Areas that would have gotten say half a foot of 34 degree paste years ago could easily rain in that same setup now, where as areas farther west may go from like 22 to 24 degrees. You have competing factors here, it’s getting both warmer (negative factor) and wetter (positive factor). There is a point where the increased precip no longer outweighs the warmer temps for snow potential, and us on the coastal plain are closer to that tipping point. Some areas farther south like DC are already seeing a decline in average snowfall, while say Bostons average snowfall over the past 2 decades has not declined at all (if anything I’m pretty sure it increased a bit). Whether or not the tipping point has been reached yet is unclear. However, I suspect that given how rapidly CC is accelerating, if we aren’t already there in Boston, it’s close. That said, even if this bad stretch is the start of a real decline in average snowfall, that doesn’t mean we can’t get great winters. Where I would guess we will “lose” most of our snow would be in average and below average winters with lots of marginal events, not in those 3+ BN epic winters.