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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has nothing 

Yeah, like I said… I wouldn’t get too swept away with this run. I mean some sort of event may happen, but there are some arguments against it being such a massive scenario like that depiction tonight.

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Look at the ridge near 200 hours plus out there over the Rockies. It’s huge and suddenly growing in that time range and that is after the storm on the 27/28th is over and gone. That doesn’t make any sense in the canonical relay of the mass fields. The ridge starts to go on the heels of the storm and they are temporally coupled - 

it looks to me like the 28th system should be attenuating and that bundle of mechanics diving through the lakes you see at 222 hrs should be the real one we should be tracking.  

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The new snow today added just enough to better the footing on icy paths ironically.  My wife and I enjoyed a long walk in cold and snowy conds earlier.  My tolerance is such that I would love it to be at least 10 degrees warmer.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

The new snow today added just enough to better the footing on icy paths ironically.  My wife and I enjoyed a long walk in cold and snowy conds earlier.  My tolerance is such that I would love it to be at least 10 degrees warmer.

Yeah this is the best kind of snow to receive imo. Light, fluffy, picturesque and not even enough to have to worry about shoveling. It’s too bad we can’t this like as you said, without it being bone numbing cold as well. I guess you can’t have it all in the middle of January!

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3 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z GFS Kuchera Clown run all the way out. Had the boys over at Hewlett Packard install the Cray at my house yesterday morning - because this was clearly run from my basement. 42" spot right over my house. Lock it in, lol. Map courtesy of Pivotal Weather.

Double Ultimate Weenie Run.jpg

A few miles west of you are the real weenie spots in Washington / S Goshen 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

January thaw time ?

I suppose we always new it would come at some point this winter.  Regular feature of mid winter lately.  I don’t see a cold shot on ensembles in the east for a couple of weeks or more - Canada is going to get warm again.  Source region isn’t cold.  We may do some April temps a couple of times.

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

January thaw time ?

It is needed around here....While the landscape has a nice winter vibe to it. The layer of ice under the snow makes walking (especially a dog) around dangerous and sledding for the kids is pretty much impossible. So lets thaw it out and get some real snow in here before spring starts. If grading winters based on sledding days, we are behind last year at this point (6 days to 2)...

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Scanning the ensemble source/means over night, there's still a signal for the end of the month that is on the robuster side of the climate.  The time range still beyond 200 hours.  

The 28th system appears to be fading?  No qualms from me.  The index method likes that one less ( but not zero ;) ) than leaning toward the 30th.  What is interesting, it is as though both the EPS and GEFs are sans the 28th and 30th in lieu of "merging" or emerging at all, on to the 29th mid way between. That's kind of cool ... for determinstic nerds  lol.  These are 18z on the 29th:

  image.png.91b8856b62add2dcb7c5a3a872d4f81c.png

 

If this continues to emerge ...there'll be problems with cold air availability though, too.  I'm willing to lean that some of the 850 mb positive anomalies normalize ( but not all), as the larger synoptic signal begins to back the deep layer flow NW over Canada -

 

 

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