January 2024 -- Discussion

[kazimirkai]

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Models are enslaved by the physics....that is why its incumbent on the forecaster to utilize analogs and experience to know when to diverge on a seasonal level.

Why must they be? Surely there can be some way to correct and adjust them based on historical analogs like professionals do. Are analogs thought to be less valued in the future with such an unpredictably changing climate?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

 

Why must they be? Surely there can be some way to correct and adjust them based on historical analogs like professionals do. Are analogs thought to be less valued in the future with such an unpredictably changing climate?

To a degree, yes...they already are.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, kazimirkai said:

 

Why must they be? Surely there can be some way to correct and adjust them based on historical analogs like professionals do. Are analogs thought to be less valued in the future with such an unpredictably changing climate?

The last thing you want models doing is heuristic output. You want them to obey physics as much as possible or their solutions will be even more error-prone. 
 

The reason sometimes analog forecasting can outperform a LR model is because of potential model biases in either initial conditions or their inability to weigh certain influences more heavily. For example, I don’t think models are trying to weigh the likelihood of an SSW months in advance like a long range forecaster might….someone like Ray knows that -QBO and El Niño have a much higher chance than climo of producing one. 
 

But as model guidance gets closer and can “see” that type of event, then the physics will respond and you’ll see changes. 
 

Model guidance used to be so much worse beyond day 6 than they are now. In fact, we hardly looked at any OP solutions beyond day 6 other than just for fun. Even ensembles were so-so. They still have issues but not like 15 years ago. 

[weatherwiz]

What grinds me most is how much MOS (And I'll put NBM in this category too) scales back to climo, thus they're absolutely horrible in anomalous air masses. Surely there has to be a way to negate this or have climo weighed less. IDK...maybe that is something for AI (please smack me).

[Ginx snewx]

Patience Grasshoppers? Eric Webb chart.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I am not can kicking or back tracking....I posted in plain English that I had specified the second half of January as the real change, per back loaded el Nino climo....if that period can kicks, then I promise I will make some concessions.

You also did think it would have snowed several times by now. So we’ve already lost part 1

[WinterWolf]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the pond skaters get their cold shot on the 12z Euro. 

So where are the trolls? How come they don’t post the cold shot? Tells you all you need to know. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So where are the trolls? How come they don’t post the cold shot? Tells you all you need to know. 

They're onto 18z

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You also did think it would have snowed several times by now. So we’ve already lost part 1

Not much...mainly over the deep interior and NNE, which it did.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not much...mainly over the deep interior and NNE, which it did.

Ok.. but let’s judge the winter by months.  
Dec and any snow at all in general and in winter forecasts is lost . So all get an F

We have 2 months left to grade and see how they turn out 

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The last thing you want models doing is heuristic output. You want them to obey physics as much as possible or their solutions will be even more error-prone.

At first yes, but what if the model is self-educating and learns from past errors?  Isn't that where we are heading with AI?

Imagine a (dystopian) world where the weather models are flawless...what would we do to entertain ourselves?

 

[cleetussnow]

There is one BN day on the 15 day gfs op.  1.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

December recap and January preview...

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/very-mild-december-prompts-change-to.html

[greenmtnwx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My most valuable seasonal efforts are the ones that do NOT verify.

In all honesty I very much commend you for your hard work, research and effort. The problem is that you’re leaning into a science which is extremely difficult to forecast at a human level that far out. Your accuracy gets you in trouble, but your effort is to be commended. 

[weathafella]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok.. but let’s judge the winter by months.  
Dec and any snow at all in general and in winter forecasts is lost . So all get an F

We have 2 months left to grade and see how they turn out 

 

 

That's fair.  Now here's a question and I'm not saying it's going to happen.

Let's say we go to town and get some 12+ storms in the next 2 months with a few 4-8s interspersed so that everyone ends up above normal.  How would you grade it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

In all honesty I very much commend you for your hard work, research and effort. The problem is that you’re leaning into a science which is extremely difficult to forecast at a human level that far out. Your accuracy gets you in trouble, but your effort is to be commended. 

Good post...as for the accuracy, sure...I have won some and lost some. If you go into my blog and type "Outlook Verification" in the search box...you will see seasons like 2014-2015, 2017-2018, and 2020-2021, 2021-2022 that were damn good....hell, even in 2016 I nailed that blizzard right down to the two week window.

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok.. but let’s judge the winter by months.  
Dec and any snow at all in general and in winter forecasts is lost . So all get an F

We have 2 months left to grade and see how they turn out 

 

 

Yes, December sucked. It was worse than I forecast.

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good post...as for the accuracy, sure...I have won some and lost some. If you go into my blog and type "Outlook Verification" in the search box...you will see seasons like 2014-2015, 2017-2018, and 2020-2021, 2021-2022 that were damn good....hell, even in 2016 I nailed that blizzard right down to the two week window.

I completely agree but I just hope you know that nailing that blizzard down to a two week window is literally like flipping a coin or the roulette wheel at the Vegas table. There is no science known to man that can predict that accurately or even has any value, so it’s frankly just dumb luck at this point.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That's fair.  Now here's a question and I'm not saying it's going to happen.

Let's say we go to town and get some 12+ storms in the next 2 months with a few 4-8s interspersed so that everyone ends up above normal.  How would you grade it?

We could get 200” over the next 2 months and it will never be a great winter. There’s nothing worse than a short winter or 4-6 weeks.

You can liken it to summer. If you lose June to cold and wet .. all you have are July and August.. And you’ve got in the back of your mind how the late August  sun loses its bite.. and there’s posters talking about leathery leaves and the first cool shot across the bow. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We could get 200” over the next 2 months and it will never be a great winter. There’s nothing worse than a short winter or 4-6 weeks.

You can liken it to summer. If you lose June to cold and wet .. all you have are July and August.. And you’ve got in the back of your mind how the late August  sun loses its bite.. and there’s posters talking about leathery leaves and the first cool shot across the bow. 

This deserves both a reaction and a reply.

Here's the reply  

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We could get 200” over the next 2 months and it will never be a great winter. There’s nothing worse than a short winter or 4-6 weeks.

You can liken it to summer. If you lose June to cold and wet .. all you have are July and August.. And you’ve got in the back of your mind how the late August  sun loses its bite.. and there’s posters talking about leathery leaves and the first cool shot across the bow. 

200" of snow in a two month period would be the greatest winter you will ever see in Connecticut, and that is iron clad

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

200" of snow in a two month period would be the greatest winter you will ever see in Connecticut, and that is iron clad

But losing December ruins the winter 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

In all honesty I very much commend you for your hard work, research and effort. The problem is that you’re leaning into a science which is extremely difficult to forecast at a human level that far out. Your accuracy gets you in trouble, but your effort is to be commended. 

To be honest, he’s probably one of the few guys forecasting, temps and snowfall… And he’s been pretty decent overall. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I completely agree but I just hope you know that nailing that blizzard down to a two week window is literally like flipping a coin or the roulette wheel at the Vegas table. There is no science known to man that can predict that accurately or even has any value, so it’s frankly just dumb luck at this point.

I wouldn’t call forecasting a huge snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic in a potent El Niño sometime in late January or early February complete luck. That is basically their most climatologically favorable window and favorable ENSO state to get one. You’d have to know that type of climo and ENSO background to do it. 
 

But overall I agree with the difficulty in pinning down favorable windows. There’s so much chaos that can throw things off that we aren’t able to comprehend. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I completely agree but I just hope you know that nailing that blizzard down to a two week window is literally like flipping a coin or the roulette wheel at the Vegas table. There is no science known to man that can predict that accurately or even has any value, so it’s frankly just dumb luck at this point.

No, its an educated guess based upon historical precedence during preferred analog seasons. All of this work is part of an eclectic, wholistic approach that incorporates many different methodologies to identify the analog seasons in order to glean insight into crucial details like that. Quite frankly, I would expect you to have any insight into that when you have never tried it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn’t call forecasting a huge snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic in a potent El Niño sometime in late January or early February complete luck. That is basically their most climatologically favorable window and favorable ENSO state to get one. You’d have to know that type of climo and ENSO background to do it. 
 

But overall I agree with the difficulty in pinning down favorable windows. There’s so much chaos that can throw things off that we aren’t able to comprehend. 

Yes..an "educated" guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, its an educated guess based upon historical precedence during preferred analog seasons. All of this work is part of an eclectic, wholistic approach that incorporates many different methodologies to identify the analog seasons in order to glean insight into crucial details like that. Quite frankly, I would expect you to have any insight into that when you have never tried it.

Its almost analogous to those phycological profiles that you see on forensic shows....are those accurate profiles of the ultimate assailant "lucky guesses"?

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This deserves both a reaction and a reply.

Here's the reply  

That's his subjective opinion, which is fine...that isn't a right or wrong thing. Its about values...like some people have all of the money in the world, but never end up with a family and are miserable, anyway.

[Snowcrazed71]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But losing December ruins the winter 

No it doesn't. Would it have been nice to have some snow? Yes. Would it have been a nice to have a white Christmas? Yes.

If It ruined winter for you then why are you still on here? The answer to that question is because you still do want to have winter. If you didn't you wouldn't be on here. Let December go and look to the future.

[mcap77]

All this crying, particularly from areas that do not average much snow in Dec, is comical. I am not nearly as educated as many of the posters on here and will not comment on LR, but will say all it is going to take is one or two decent storm for Southern areas be reach normal or even above normal snowfall to date this early in the season. It is the Northern areas that have more catching up to do. 

Yes the warmth has sucked and yes it has put a damper on the winter feel, but in terms of snowfall (at least IMBY) it has not been a terrible December. We average a bit over 12" in Dec and we are just shy of 12" to date. The lack of retention does suck, but I am far from ready to call this a ratter. We still have plenty of time to turn this around.