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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That said, you know how many recovering addicts are therapists? You can't manufacture empathy and shared experiences. 

My brother ran a very successful alcohol counseling company in Alaska. As you can imagine he was always busy. Ex alcohol heroin addict.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don't worry, the weeklies save us 2nd half of February and into early March....they will be 100% correct too.

I don't know if your kidding ?  ... anyway, the numerical representation of weeklies has a favorable spread...  AO is modestly neg/EPO is modestly neg/PNA is modestly pos   ... 

I don't normally employ the EWs but just cause you said that I admitted to looking.  LOL.  sue me.

anyway, cheers.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know if your kidding ?  ... anyway, the numerical representation of weeklies has a favorable spread...  AO is modestly neg/EPO is modestly neg/PNA is modestly pos   ... 

I don't normally employ the EWs but just cause you said that I admitted to looking.  LOL.  sue me.

anyway, cheers.

looks like there’s a potentially legit PNA spike before the Pacific jet becomes too much to handle. 3 sigma at near our latitude is no joke

IMG_4337.thumb.png.fc71ff0c79fb582763aa69e99a5ac297.png

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yeah...well, I outlined early - will again...

there's an impressive signal from about Jan 26 - Feb 4... within which Jan 30 is about centered -

That event has been emerging into a favorable signal, not the other way around.   This is actually (30th) the most telecon directive period I've seen this winter. 

so we'll see.   I don't have a problem with any solution that hits that period with an emerge system.  Euro and GGEM in fact both carry a system in the window at this point and all three have been gaining on this...

 

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like there’s a potentially legit PNA spike before the Pacific jet becomes too much to handle. 3 sigma at near our latitude is no joke

IMG_4337.thumb.png.fc71ff0c79fb582763aa69e99a5ac297.png

I've been trying to tell folks ...  

People get into this neg head daily culture and it's utterly blinding - it seems.   the 30th is a big signal here...

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've been trying to tell folks ...  

People get into this neg head daily culture and it's utterly blinding - it seems.   the 30th is a big signal here...

I'm guilty of it this week...missing out this week killed me. But truth be told, the window I outlined preseason was 1/23 to 2/6. I'll take another look this weekend when I can maybe be objective again.

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- the most recent GFS happens to be the most impressive and seemingly realized of said indexing.  I wouldn't be shocked if we see bigger solutions in terms of cyclone size and power at some point for that 30th thing... But ... being 'not being shocked' isn't a forecast - just sayn'.

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