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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Want happened to the +pna with -epo looks we had to start February last week? It has morphed into a torch ugly 

No pattern has really sustained itself this year except the December torch. Torch, cold...not really sustaining itself although we are biasing warm.

 

Seems like MJO again is zipping along again into shit phases. 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The GEFS seems to truly have no idea whats gonna happen at the moment, its current run is basically a 180 of the previous 3-4 runs past 300 hours and even those were bad patterns.

Yeah I’ve noticed that whenever the northern stream pulls N of the border … flopping kicks in among all the ens sources actually.

I remember Scott and I were talking about this last month when we went through a period whence there was almost no predictability. It seemed like every two runs there was a wholesale different hemisphere look construction. 

I don’t know if we’re that bad right now, but it does seem like the entire area below 50N has opened up and populated with jet meanders more so than an identifiable main circulation stream.  

It strikes me as odd during an El Niño… Where the hell is the STJ been. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No pattern has really sustained itself this year except the December torch. Torch, cold...not really sustaining itself although we are biasing warm.

 

Seems like MJO again is zipping along again into shit phases. 

Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching.

But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that,

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching.

But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that,

Is next week one event or two events as modeled yesterday?  Thanks

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching.

But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that,

It's got to turn eventually right? LOL. Oye.   Might get an icing look next week from Union CT on north. 

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I hope the heat rifle loads up like this in early May ...  +25C at 850 mb over southern Manitoba - no problem

image.png.5118ee4fa7baeadb4262b9817b2ffbb0.png

 

I mean ...this is eerily a +PNAP flow structure down stream of a +PNA surge ... resulting in that - wow

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS trying to save the day here in the 11-15 day. Builds the ridge out west a little more.

The GEPS was semi trying the same late and the GEFS at 15-16 was maybe showing higher heights in AK/NWT somewhat but you’d think it’s 2/10 at least before that translates to anything 

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There is something about Ray giving advice and counseling for a winter PTSD case that has me roaring in laughter.  I do understand Ray is great at what he does, but the king of storm melts counseling the king of seasonal melts is great shit.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is something about Ray giving advice and counseling for a winter PTSD case that has me roaring in laughter.  I do understand Ray is great at what he does, but the king of storm melts counseling the king of seasonal melts is great shit.

What are you the king of 

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We should get another re-load of the pattern moving into February. We'll certainly still have some wintry threats though through the end of the month. They'd all probably be similar to what we're looking at for next Monday/Tuesday where we may need to rely on high pressure to the north to reinforce and lock in cold. While the upper pattern looks like crap, if we can keep moving sfc highs southeast across Canada we'll have some shots. 

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50 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

That’s a pretty nice band just south of RI. Would be a nice time to be on the block island ferry.

Tickled Newport for a while. Covered everything up. I'll dig myself out later when the trees stop falling down. 

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

Having a different way of grading how good a pattern is makes me dumb? All this talk about the pattern is just dancing around what the real problem is, which is CC. It’s not just bad luck, you even said it yourself. You are the guy who’s always talking about the speed of the flow being a limiting factor, and the role CC plays in it. So patterns that worked in the past no longer work. I’m probably oversimplifying things, but that’s what I got out of your posts. If it makes me stupid to question whether or not we had a favorable pattern when the temp anomalies for the winter are roughly +4 so far makes me stupid, then yeah I guess I’m dumb as shit. I prefer to look at the big picture rather than the smaller details. 

You've read enough of Tip's tomes to know that he thinks we're all neurotic about snow and cold, himself included.  And I won't argue that.  ;)   Always consider the source.

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