CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Want happened to the +pna with -epo looks we had to start February last week? It has morphed into a torch ugly No pattern has really sustained itself this year except the December torch. Torch, cold...not really sustaining itself although we are biasing warm. Seems like MJO again is zipping along again into shit phases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The GEFS seems to truly have no idea whats gonna happen at the moment, its current run is basically a 180 of the previous 3-4 runs past 300 hours and even those were bad patterns. Yeah I’ve noticed that whenever the northern stream pulls N of the border … flopping kicks in among all the ens sources actually. I remember Scott and I were talking about this last month when we went through a period whence there was almost no predictability. It seemed like every two runs there was a wholesale different hemisphere look construction. I don’t know if we’re that bad right now, but it does seem like the entire area below 50N has opened up and populated with jet meanders more so than an identifiable main circulation stream. It strikes me as odd during an El Niño… Where the hell is the STJ been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No pattern has really sustained itself this year except the December torch. Torch, cold...not really sustaining itself although we are biasing warm. Seems like MJO again is zipping along again into shit phases. Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching. But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that, 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nianticct Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Steady light snow on se ct coast Roads are getting a lite covering 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, nianticct said: Steady light snow on se ct coast Roads are getting a lite covering That’s a pretty nice band just south of RI. Would be a nice time to be on the block island ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 That's a huge PNA ridge at 240 on the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching. But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that, Is next week one event or two events as modeled yesterday? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nianticct Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 With a tall one! Blonde is my preference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching. But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that, It's got to turn eventually right? LOL. Oye. Might get an icing look next week from Union CT on north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This winter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 When I hear ice storm from DIT, my eyes glaze over in the same manner as when I hear about severe from Wiz during the warm season. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I hope the heat rifle loads up like this in early May ... +25C at 850 mb over southern Manitoba - no problem I mean ...this is eerily a +PNAP flow structure down stream of a +PNA surge ... resulting in that - wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 EPS trying to save the day here in the 11-15 day. Builds the ridge out west a little more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS trying to save the day here in the 11-15 day. Builds the ridge out west a little more. The GEPS was semi trying the same late and the GEFS at 15-16 was maybe showing higher heights in AK/NWT somewhat but you’d think it’s 2/10 at least before that translates to anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Heh, there's a real signal on the 30th, though. Of what will show given time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 There is something about Ray giving advice and counseling for a winter PTSD case that has me roaring in laughter. I do understand Ray is great at what he does, but the king of storm melts counseling the king of seasonal melts is great shit. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: There is something about Ray giving advice and counseling for a winter PTSD case that has me roaring in laughter. I do understand Ray is great at what he does, but the king of storm melts counseling the king of seasonal melts is great shit. What are you the king of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Have had about 1/2” today. Enough to freshen up stuff and sticking some to roads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What are you the king of Smiling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 We should get another re-load of the pattern moving into February. We'll certainly still have some wintry threats though through the end of the month. They'd all probably be similar to what we're looking at for next Monday/Tuesday where we may need to rely on high pressure to the north to reinforce and lock in cold. While the upper pattern looks like crap, if we can keep moving sfc highs southeast across Canada we'll have some shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Smiling? He’s like the Joker on the original Batman movie in 1989. When he was selling that product Smilex that would cause people to die. Then they would have that big giant joker grin lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 50 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: That’s a pretty nice band just south of RI. Would be a nice time to be on the block island ferry. Tickled Newport for a while. Covered everything up. I'll dig myself out later when the trees stop falling down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: Advice, lol. You must be a tri-stater. Whatever that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, George001 said: Having a different way of grading how good a pattern is makes me dumb? All this talk about the pattern is just dancing around what the real problem is, which is CC. It’s not just bad luck, you even said it yourself. You are the guy who’s always talking about the speed of the flow being a limiting factor, and the role CC plays in it. So patterns that worked in the past no longer work. I’m probably oversimplifying things, but that’s what I got out of your posts. If it makes me stupid to question whether or not we had a favorable pattern when the temp anomalies for the winter are roughly +4 so far makes me stupid, then yeah I guess I’m dumb as shit. I prefer to look at the big picture rather than the smaller details. You've read enough of Tip's tomes to know that he thinks we're all neurotic about snow and cold, himself included. And I won't argue that. Always consider the source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have had about 1/2” today. Enough to freshen up stuff and sticking some to roads Has been snowing non stop since 8 am, roughly 1.1" so far....beautiful out, 27.1° atm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Of course no snowflakes but plenty of cloud cover to keep the day dark and dismal. Cold, high of 25° so far. Really hoping next week can deliver a little something Wintery to keep the vibe alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Caked…. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Has been snowing non stop since 8 am, roughly 1.1" so far....beautiful out, 27.1° atm Nice . There’s your 1-3”! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What are you the king of Rescue dogs On the dim sun menu most of today, after the -12 low. We must've decoupled earlier than the other rad pits. We're almost never colder than BML/HIE on calm nights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 flurries here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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