January 2024 -- Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is the most passive aggressive "FU" "like" in history

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think this was the most accurate portion of my December work

 

There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a multi-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual la Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. There Should be no repeat of January 2023.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The problem is they aren't vapid and mindless...they offer good insight, which is dangerous because they aren't using it to foster objectivity as they should. Instead, the aim is to passively aggressively elicit emotion from those invested in wintery pursuits and the quality of this place suffers for it because that is inimical to objectivity.

Many are the same trolls who did this back in the late 2000s or early 2010s and then would mostly disappear as soon as the snowstorms were verifying only to return to troll away during the next cutter or whiff….their scorn was well-earned. I think it was 2014-15 when one of them just was relentless during first half of Jan ‘15 and then basically disappeared post-blizzard for obvious reasons. I’d have to go back and look at the January ‘15 pattern thread to refresh my memory.  
 

Ive often called them the anti-snow JBs…just like how JB will never miss a cold shot or snowstorm, these posters will never miss a warm pattern or cutter. Of course, just like JB looks silly during +5 months, they will look the same way when the worm turns just like they did in some of those other years. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Today’s GFS next 15 days .. 40s to near 50 everyday in CT except one. Lows barely below freezing that’s hardly a pattern change from most of December.  We haven’t had a high below 32 since February 28th.. Average high at bdl is 37

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Today’s GFS next 15 days .. 40s to near 50 everyday in CT except one. Lows barely below freezing that’s hardly a pattern change from most of December.  We haven’t had a high below 32 since February 28th

Yikes. Plant life will start waking up. 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The problem is they aren't vapid and mindless...they offer good insight, which is dangerous because they aren't using it to foster objectivity as they should. Instead, the aim is to passively aggressively elicit emotion from those invested in wintery pursuits and the quality of this place suffers for it because that is inimical to objectivity.

It's a 'flaw in the design' of social media. 

 How does moderation ( which frankly in here ... doesn't seem to care or actually monitor - different discussion) determine the difference ?

Plus, you and I troll each other ( for example) but we're sincerely busting balls for laughs.  You can't allow that, and but then not allow the others. Yeah, the "intent" of others may be nauseatingly obviously and an insult-to-intelligence cloaked in careful phrasing - but it's not like it's okay to hijack a car if your just joking around?  

I'm kind of with JD.  I just ignore 'em.  But ... I don't even 'block'  Uuusually I  just can tell within the first sentence where the poster's intent most likely lies ( and "lies" ) and scroll on by. I mean it's not hard to do so.  Usually good intentions qualify their remarks.  When that never happens, just spewing ... immediately suspect.  Other times?  Ha, I may actually agree with them. Even when they are "really" trying to poke balls from the back, the joke may even be on them. They're unwittingly agreeing. 

Anyway yeah, there's a difference between objective criticism and/or objective forecasts that don't agree, vs those that attempt to 'sound' like they are in that group but are disingenuous about their intentions - the solution is to grant them no audience. 

 

[kazimirkai]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will probably end up too cold in January...my honest guess. But you tell me how this has aged from early November:

January 2024 Outlook

January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2)

This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. 

Dam you were accurate enough back then. Why does it take the models until now to realize it? Just to display ensembles with cold (not frigid but "workable" as folks say) and the odd deterministic with reasonable nor'easters only to cave to your prediction in the end?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a 'flaw in the design' of social media. 

 How does moderation ( which frankly in here ... doesn't seem to care or actually monitor - different discussion) determine the difference ?

Plus, you and I troll each other ( for example) but we're sincerely busting balls for laughs.  You can't allow that, and not allow the other. Yeah, the "intent" may be nauseatingly obviously and insult-to-intelligence cloaked in careful phrasing when it is coming from that other intention - but it's not like it's okay to hijack a car if your just joking around?  

I'm kind of with JD.  I just ignore 'em.  But ... I don't even 'block'  Uuusually I  just can tell within the first sentence where the poster's intent most likely lies ( and "lies" ) and scroll on by. I mean it's not hard to do so.  Usually good intentions qualify their remarks.  When that never happens, just spewing ... immediately suspect.  Other times?  Ha, I may actually agree with them. Even when they are "really" trying to poke balls from the back, the joke may even be on them when they're unwittingly agreeing. 

Anyway yeah, there's a difference between objective criticism and/or objective forecasts that don't agree, vs those that attempt to 'sound' like they are in that group but are disingenuous about their intentions - the solution is to grant them no audience. 

 

I feel like the difference is that we are adding sincere and empirical content the vast majority of the time....the ball busting is in the minority. Its just constant passive aggressive siege with them.  And sure, my content supports my opinion, duh....but folks have seen be self critical and admit when I am wrong. If I need to do so again this season, then so be it...I will.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like the difference is that we are adding sincere and empirical content the vast majority of the time....the ball busting is in the minority. Its just constant passive aggressive siege with them.  And sure, my content supports my opinion, duh....but folks have seen be self critical and admit when I am wrong. If I need to do so again this season, then so be it...I will.

Agreed. And you’re doing fine…I’m with ya.  Gotta de what transpires over the next month or so. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Dam you were accurate enough back then. Why does it take the models until now to realize it? Just to display ensembles with cold (not frigid but "workable" as folks say) and the odd deterministic with reasonable nor'easters only to cave to your prediction in the end?

Models are enslaved by the physics....that is why its incumbent on the forecaster to utilize analogs and experience to know when to diverge on a seasonal level.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed. And you’re doing fine…I’m with ya.  Gotta de what transpires over the next month or so. 

My most valuable seasonal efforts are the ones that do NOT verify.

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Today’s GFS next 15 days .. 40s to near 50 everyday in CT except one. Lows barely below freezing that’s hardly a pattern change from most of December.  We haven’t had a high below 32 since February 28th.. Average high at bdl is 37

Funny, Ryan's forecast has us around 45 for Saturday and then low 40s for most of the week. Dropping to the 30s next weekend.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My most valuable seasonal efforts are the ones that do NOT verify.

Agreed. But let’s see how this next month shakes out…and see if you’re on track?  On 3/31 we can see how well you did, and if it was a decent winter, or a flop? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed. But let’s see how this next month shakes out…and see if you’re on track?  On 3/31 we can see how well you did, and if it was a decent winter, or a flop? 

If we get to 1/20 with no sign of imminent change, then yes...trouble. I think by mid January I knew I was screwed last year, though I still thought that March would produce.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we get to 1/20 with no sign of imminent change, then yes...trouble. I think by mid January I knew I was screwed last year, though I still thought that March would produce.

It did produce…but only for HUBB Dave and Ineedsnow. Lol.  

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Funny, Ryan's forecast has us around 45 for Saturday and then low 40s for most of the week. Dropping to the 30s next weekend.

OP GFS was a pretty torchy run. You’d forecast a bit colder than that based on ensemble guidance. There’s no need to get too specific on a 5-10 day forecast when you’re going to see some swings on deterministic runs. 

[weatherwiz]

I agree, if we get deep into January (mid-month) and we haven't seen improvements or there is nothing on the horizon...and I mean as in days it may be time to start worrying. At that point it will probably be preparations for May.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree, if we get deep into January (mid-month) and we haven't seen improvements or there is nothing on the horizon...and I mean as in days it may be time to start worrying. At that point it will probably be preparations for May.

Yea, I am not can kicking or back tracking....I posted in plain English that I had specified the second half of January as the real change, per back loaded el Nino climo....if that period can kicks, then I promise I will make some concessions.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I am not can kicking or back tracking....I posted in plain English that I has specified the second half of January as the real change, per back loaded el Nino climo....if that period can kicks, then I promise I will make some concessions.

 

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree, if we get deep into January (mid-month) and we haven't seen improvements or there is nothing on the horizon...and I mean as in days it may be time to start worrying. At that point it will probably be preparations for May.

Agreed on both posts.  Maybe it’s another Rat?  I still don’t think so. And I feel it will turn around.
 

 But if it is a rat, last year I got a tad over 12” for the season, I hope I can beat that and go even lower this year If it rats, let’s set a record if it’s gonna suck. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I am not can kicking or back tracking....I posted in plain English that I had specified the second half of January as the real change, per back loaded el Nino climo....if that period can kicks, then I promise I will make some concessions.

I've been thinking about this the past few days as I've made some posts about how we need something big to really shake things up. We may just have to closely monitor the stratosphere and hope the signals for a SSW can emerge (and of course hope it does so that is favorable for our side of the hemisphere). If we can get a SSW and prompt the development of blocking things are going to change quickly. Of course this scenario would be lagged but once (if) we see it occur, it's just a matter of when things pan out. 

I am hoping such a scenario will occur when the PAC relaxes some or enough to displace some colder air into Canada so if blocking does transpire we'll at least have a period where the source region will be better. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Agreed on both posts.  Maybe it’s another Rat?  I still don’t think so. And I feel it will turn around.
 

 But if it is a rat, last year I got a tad over 12” for the season, I hope I can beat that and go even lower this year If it rats, let’s set a record if it’s gonna suck. 

If this winter ends up as a rat I will be extremely perplexed. I figured this winter would be above-average in terms of precipitation and we're doing extremely well in that department. If you would have told me we'd get 7-10'' of precipitation this month and the result at the major climo sites for snow was a goose egg I'd have laughed. I still expect we'll be on the active side the remainder of winter, but all we need is just to shake things up slightly. 

An airmass slightly above-average in terms of temps in Jan/Feb is vastly different than an airmass slightly above-average temp wise in Dec. Even if we don't see significant changes...hopefully climo will at least work in our favor. 

[MJO812]

Euro close

[SJonesWX]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Agreed on both posts.  Maybe it’s another Rat?  I still don’t think so. And I feel it will turn around.
 

 But if it is a rat, last year I got a tad over 12” for the season, I hope I can beat that and go even lower this year If it rats, let’s set a record if it’s gonna suck. 

man, last year was a rat up here-until March. I was at <50% of average, but then March hit me with 27" which i didn't want, and brought me to within about a foot of average. it sucks, becuase the numbers really don't tell the story of how bad it really was.

if we are gonna rat (like you did), i want to rat full tilt full time.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

55 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Today’s GFS next 15 days .. 40s to near 50 everyday in CT except one. Lows barely below freezing that’s hardly a pattern change from most of December.  We haven’t had a high below 32 since February 28th.. Average high at bdl is 37

I haven’t really followed things that closely for a bit but I am rather surprised that even an Op gfs run has highs that above normal for the period “prior to a relaxation” .
 

If it wasn’t posted I wouldn’t look as I have stopped looking at 850 anomalies and ensembles for a bit .  I have to say that is kind of comical and something has certainly changed with the predicted temp profiles offered by said pattern change if that is a realistic temperature guide . I’m not saying anything more or less . I don’t even like it cold if it’s gonna be dry .

It just makes me wonder if models have another sort of bias this winter where things are going on somewhere in the globe that lends models to lean too cold our neck of the woods at day 10-15 or of its they just couldn’t account for remnants of pacific airmass or the colder airmass lies just north of us now and some blip caused it to not come as far south.

[tavwtby]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It did produce…but only for HUBB Dave and Ineedsnow. Lol.  

yeah, lot of us in WSNE got skunked last winter while a lot were able to at least get near avg. I wound up with 41.25" 3rd worst of the last 5 years if you can believe that.

[Typhoon Tip]

What if it doesn't snow an inch until March ...then we get 70 inches - what then

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

What if it doesn't snow an inch until March ...then we get 70 inches - what then

Beer

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What if it doesn't snow an inch until March ...then we get 70 inches - what then

Hopefully it all melts before May 1

[ORH_wxman]

At least the pond skaters get their cold shot on the 12z Euro. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I haven’t really followed things that closely for a bit but I am rather surprised that even an Op gfs run has highs that above normal for the period “prior to a relaxation” .
 

If it wasn’t posted I wouldn’t look as I have stopped looking at 850 anomalies and ensembles for a bit .  I have to say that is kind of comical and something has certainly changed with the predicted temp profiles offered by said pattern change if that is a realistic temperature guide . I’m not saying anything more or less . I don’t even like it cold if it’s gonna be dry .

It just makes me wonder if models have another sort of bias this winter where things are going on somewhere in the globe that lends models to lean too cold our neck of the woods at day 10-15 or of its they just couldn’t account for remnants of pacific airmass or the colder airmass lies just north of us now and some blip caused it to not come as far south.

Wait that doesn’t look like deep winter to you?