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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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The 06z GFS attempts to materialize the Jan 30 signal I was mentioning the other day...  (finally).  I mean it's been the telecon suggestion for awhile but the operational dailies didn't reflect it.  In fact, last nights numerical PNA projection was even more impressive. It's actually huge.   

The only problem is...where the f* are the polar indexes?  

They're apparently in hell. AO is soring...and the -EPO has been lost.  Typically the AO and EPO will move together as they share domain space. But...there is a partial disconnect.  Some times the EPO(NAO as well) will part index modal company with the AO...etc..  It's dizzy logic.    But the EPO index was indicating a negative burst around the 27th; since yesterday morning ...it's neutralized.  So, neutral (even modestly) positive EPO under a raging hard-on +AO ... mm, doesn't send a cold signal. 

What we have working in favor ( maybe ...big maybe ) is the climatological nadir.  We rock-bottom over the next week and then slowly start going the other way, so all this above may be able to "manufacture" ( whatever that means )...

Needs lots of work.  We need this chart-esque to continue to evolve, and then cross the cold air supply bridge later I guess.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We settle for PD III in lieu of Feb '78 redux?

In all seriousness, it looks as though my timeline will be off, at the very least.

Oh well.

yeah, i think it’s more like Feb 10-Mar 10 instead of Feb 1-Mar 1. i get that it’s frustrating and perhaps even annoying to see stuff get pushed back, but it is what it is 

the nice thing is that you can still get big storms in that window quite easily. 1958 comes to mind 

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Nice, 4 pages of doom and gloom, I'll make sure to take pics this weekend to cheer folks up.

You should have a good weekend up north, took yesterday off to groom another 60% of our system, just one more trail left to do the other guys are packing today with sleds so we can take the groomer. Hopefully ride 200 miles Saturday, full on winter fun!

420948010_772370624923292_72903437667451

 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Radar really in good agreement with models today. Love that nrly slap to my head on radar once you get east of RI.

Yeah the snow is screeching to a halt about 10 miles SW of me. Prob won’t get anything here. 

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