CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has it though? I’d say you have really struggled forecasting this winter. You had Tuesdays snow starting after it had already ended . I’ve been pretty good I think. If you recall I’ve mentioned several of these systems not being an issue for suppression. If you could reduce the wind and QPF output by 50%, you’d have a good model. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 A few tiny teeny flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Sunday has a shot at being nice for late Jan at least. I mean, the reason for any cold anoms at that point is the eroding stale arctic airmass...Atmosphere aloft is warming nicely by Sunday afternoon... I think the real transition day is Monday. The rad pits will probably be 0° or below Monday morning while the hills are mixed and around +10°. Then we warm up well into the 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That would not be nice in any way shape or form lol Just because you want to travel to east-bum for snow....frankly, if it isn't going to snow IMBY, then just torch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Nice, 4 pages of doom and gloom, I'll make sure to take pics this weekend to cheer folks up. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We pound ? https://x.com/bobmaxon/status/1748346331972731195?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Wtf? Did you reply to him and get your comment deleted? 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Some flakes in W Hartford. Hunkering down and staying safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just because you want to travel to east-bum for snow....frankly, if it isn't going to snow IMBY, then just torch it. That is a garbage outcome in my mind and for a pattern to be horrific enough for a full scale punt I wouldn’t anticipate NNE offering much of an escape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve been pretty good I think. If you recall I’ve mentioned several of these systems not being an issue for suppression. If you could reduce the wind and QPF output by 50%, you’d have a good model. He runs the ETA model from the old Travelers Weather Service in Hartford on a Commodore 64 in his basement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I can handle the ups and downs of weekly Will it won’t it snow and don’t see any upside to news of punting the rest of season . That is a garbage outcome in my mind and for a pattern to be horrific enough for a full scale punt I wouldn’t anticipate NNE offering much of an escape I just prefer nice weather and not having to waste time and energy if we don't end up getting snow, but to each their own. Just so much time and energy with so little return these past several years. That long guidance looks just like 1973, which I always thought was a great analog save for the polar domain....but if we have already cashed in that blocking potential and still didn't score, than what are we left with? 1973. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: John has been hinting at this for a while I think Greta has a inflatable cosmic D and she is waving it at snow lovers along the CP of the North eastern US and every year the D inflates a lil more and pushes the boundary a touch NW HAHAHA... ... but just in case... please don't couch me in with the "Gretoscracy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It wasn't event warm....it just sucked. I'd rather shot-gun a case of battery acid than do that.....just warm up and rip the band aid off- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think the real transition day is Monday. The rad pits will probably be 0° or below Monday morning while the hills are mixed and around +10°. Then we warm up well into the 30s. our last frozen wafers of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: our last frozen wafers of the season? Still no ice-in on Winni https://www.wmur.com/article/lake-winnipesaukee-not-fully-frozen-ice-in/46455533 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 the last time we collectively melted down it led to a disappearing Pope and snow on snow in a lot of New England. What will the next 2 weeks bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Steady light snow. Grab 1-3” and call it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The very light snow is now a steady light snow with a few bursts of moderate snow 25° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: the last time we collectively melted down it led to a disappearing Pope and snow on snow in a lot of New England. What will the next 2 weeks bring? A GOA low and Baringer running in to punt Feb?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: the last time we collectively melted down it led to a disappearing Pope and snow on snow in a lot of New England. What will the next 2 weeks bring? The funny thing is I'll finish slightly AN for January snow if nothing else falls. December was an epic turd, but January hasn't been terrible. Hopefully we can cash in next week on a lucky SWFE. Early February also doesn't look bad, but the issue is the favorable pattern could be transient even if it does occur. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Raging flurries in Simsbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The funny thing is I'll finish slightly AN for January snow if nothing else falls. December was an epic turd, but January hasn't been terrible. Hopefully we can cash in next week on a lucky SWFE. Early February also doesn't look bad, but the issue is the favorable pattern could be transient even if it does occur. January has been good, despite being mild....what taints the perception is the fact that the vast majority of the snow was gone so quickly and now we may be staring down the barrel of Feb 1973. I was trying to look up the MJO plot for that month, but it didn't go back that far....1995 and 2007 have some similarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It wasn't event warm....it just sucked. I'd rather shot-gun a case of battery acid than do that.....just warm up and rip the band aid off- Yeah... not to make it about me but really, I haven't once talked about temperatures across the themes of my posting this winter thus far, in any limitation schemes. I've never thought we had a lack of cold air; limitation has been the access to colder air. Even if the above panel is derived because nights were this or days were that, and the ending averages somehow belie the truth of temperature distribution in some way ... I very vividly recall plumes of sub -10C air expanding across Canada below the 60th parallel to know, it's just a matter of if the circulation mode over the continent gets it far enough south to do the deed. I've had three separate 14", 2" and 4.5" totaling my snow season thus far. I'm thinking I may be a little behind average to date? But based purely on scalar comparison, that's not sufficient to justify grousing if being fair to expectation. Wanting and pining or heroine ague withdraw syndrome ... those are not part of that "fairness to expectation" model. So maybe in the SE zones and along S CT/RI they are farther behind... Otherwise, if folks are manic when not being above normal for snow, no sympathy. If one's quality of life is being affected by model cinema not triggering the right way? - not joke, they should seek some sort of council. I'm curious if the 24th overrunning works out. I've seen those burst to 6" where's more snow over cold rain types. Suddenly, I'd be nearing 28" - ... But you know, if it didn't snow again I'm weird. I'd find that interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wtf? Did you reply to him and get your comment deleted? What? I know Bob personally. I didn’t reply or delete anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... not to make it about me but really, I haven't once talked about temperatures across the themes of my posting this winter thus far, in any limitation schemes. I've never thought we've had a lack of access to colder air. Even if the above panel is derived because nights were this or days were that, and the ending averages somehow belie the truth of temperature distribution in some way ... I very vividly recall plumes of sub -10C air expanding across Canada below the 60th parallel to know, it's just a matter of if the circulation mode over the continent gets it far enough south to do the deed. I've had three separate 14", 2" and 4.5" totaling my snow season thus far. I'm thinking I may be a little behind average to date? But based purely on scalar comparison, that's not sufficient to justify grousing if being fair to expectation. Wanting and pining or heroine ague withdraw syndrome ... those are not part of that "fairness to expectation" model. So maybe in the SE zones and along S CT/RI they are farther behind... Otherwise, if folks are manic when not being above normal for snow, no sympathy. If one's quality of life is being affected by model cinema not triggering the right way? - not joke, they should seek some sort of council. I'm curious if the 24th overrunning works out. I've seen those burst to 6" where's more snow over cold rain types. Suddenly, I'd be nearing 28" - ... But you know, if it didn't snow again I'm weird. I'd find that interesting. Cool. Let me Zoom myelf later...I think I'm free. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 it seems like the crap Pacific is due to a +EAMT that is supercharging the Pacific jet for a bit… this is similar to December, but it shouldn’t be as bad given a colder source region and lingering AN heights into AK and Siberia once the effects of the +EAMT wear off and the Pacific jet retracts (which, again, it likely will), we should see a more favorable pattern develop mid month, similar to what happened in Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: the last time we collectively melted down it led to a disappearing Pope and snow on snow in a lot of New England. What will the next 2 weeks bring? Bad timing ... I'm being ( or trying to be ) objective in my contributions this morning - it just so happens that it coincided with a daily vibe I wasn't aware was happening when I wrote about the CC aspects. Ha. Sorry guys. I still think there's reasonable chance for some snow on the 24th, fwiw. NNE is the best shot but CNE is in the hunt. Maybe down here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Bad timing ... I'm being ( or trying to be ) objective in my contributions this morning - it just so happens that it coincided with a daily vibe I wasn't aware was happening when I wrote about the CC aspects. Ha. Sorry guys. I still think there's reasonable chance for some snow on the 24th, fwiw. NNE is the best shot but CNE is in the hunt. Maybe down here... Nah, its great conversation and interesting food for thought. Will be interestig to see if the multi decedal signal flips back in the coming years, as it has in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nah, its great conversation and interesting food for thought. Will be interestig to see if the multi decedal signal flips back in the coming years, as it has in the past. We’ll be telling our grandkids about living through the lean snow years of the 2020s… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 remember when everyone wished for this nino to be atypical like that would be a good thing 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it seems like the crap Pacific is due to a +EAMT that is supercharging the Pacific jet for a bit… this is similar to December, but it shouldn’t be as bad given a colder source region and lingering AN heights into AK and Siberia once the effects of the +EAMT wear off and the Pacific jet retracts (which, again, it likely will), we should see a more favorable pattern develop mid month, similar to what happened in Jan We settle for PD III in lieu of Feb '78 redux? In all seriousness, it looks as though my timeline will be off, at the very least. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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