CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Which is sort of odd because it’s MJO projection is markedly worse overall than the EPS is so it’s somewhat strange that on the 00Z ensemble it shows a better setup MJO composites haven't meant much this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Back to a winter pack in northern vermont…. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, DavisStraight said: It's funny when things look good in the future most doubt it and wait for the rug to get pulled, when it looks bad it's a lock. And in good patterns like now, it's a lock to get effed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was about to respond...its one bad suite. Sure, its a very realistic concern, but people need to be mindful of this fatalistic thought process that has resulted from the shitty stretch we have been in. Its climo coldest point and Canada is cold...I'm not sold on crap...at least at my locale. 1 minute ago, DavisStraight said: It's funny when things look good in the future most doubt it and wait for the rug to get pulled, when it looks bad it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Thankfully this system went south. I’ve had too much snow lately…need a break. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What time should the 3-6” south of the pike be starting today? Revised to 3 to 6 flakes... which is about what I've had here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 53 minutes ago, wx2fish said: -PDO has had a role in this sub par stretch imo Agreed... I feel as though the speediness of the basal flow across the hemisphere, as well as the -PDO ... etc, are at least relatable to the facets found in this paraphrased reprint, https://phys.org/news/2024-01-climate-south-china-sea-global.html "...Researchers point to the predicted changes in the Hadley circulation as an example, which is a cell that connects the tropics and extratropics. In a warmer climate, the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation would become stronger and narrower, while the descending branch would shift poleward..." The implications on the mid latitude is that there is the increasing gradient in the boreal winter, a posit I made on my own back in 2010. Heights and warming is occurring in the polar regions at 3X's the global rate ( 1.5 to 2X's the global rate, but recent findings increased that to 3). However, that rate of change hasn't yet crossed a threshold where the total D(HGT) between 70N and 30N falls below increasing geostrophic wind as a compression response. There was an earlier ( half decade ago at this point) IPCC report ... chapter 5 discussed implications. The HC was notably expanding ... but they also attempted to limit that to summers. I found that to be dubious. I didn't believe that part of it would ultimately prove true. They appeared to be basing that on the observed termination latitude of where the HC boundary smears out into the westerlies... However, it is an easy math conversion to show that spatial release in winter, is actually converted to mechanical energy... in the form of speeding up the flow. Trading. It's okay though ... since then there are papers that describe the jets as increasing in velocity (now) ..which I feel was academically missed by the 2017 report background. That's the nature of a new frontiers of science. There are going to be suppositions and postulates that turn out to be both correct, and incorrect ... and around and around we go. I think the speeding flow and increasing wind is distorting SST anomalies over the Pacific northern Basin, another among a new ( or new-ish) aspect of the CC implication envelope. Add that to the list. That, AND... it is also physically proven that 90% of the warming in CC has been absorbed by the oceans. Despite the increased killer heat waves and record general warm episode headline frequency, world over, spanning the last 20 years, those are atmospheric. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We've been shellshocked because of the last 4 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Revised to 3 to 6 flakes... which is about what I've had here lol Been a tough winter for the KFS. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Been a tough winter for the KFS. I like to call it the HI-RESKEV. It's hyper local to the Tolland hills, always comes NW, always come in earlier and NEVER backs down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agreed... I feel as though the speediness of the basal flow across the hemisphere, as well as the -PDO ... etc, are at least relatable to the facets found in this paraphrased reprint, https://phys.org/news/2024-01-climate-south-china-sea-global.html "...Researchers point to the predicted changes in the Hadley circulation as an example, which is a cell that connects the tropics and extratropics. In a warmer climate, the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation would become stronger and narrower, while the descending branch would shift poleward..." The implications on the mid latitude is that there is the increasing gradient in the boreal winter, a posit I made on my own back in 2010. Heights and warming is occurring in the polar regions at 3X's the global rate ( 1.5 to 2X's the global rate, but recent findings increased that to 3). However, that rate of change hasn't yet crossed a threshold where the total D(HGT) between 70N and 30N falls below increasing geostrophic wind as a compression response. There was an earlier ( half decade ago at this point) IPCC report ... chapter 5 discussed implications. The HC was notably expanding ... but they also attempted to limit that to summers. I found that to be dubious. I didn't believe that part of it would ultimately prove true. They appeared to be basing that on the observed termination latitude of where the HC boundary smears out into the westerlies... However, it is an easy math conversion to show that spatial release in winter, is actually converted to mechanical energy... in the form of speeding up the flow. Trading. It's okay though ... since then there are papers that describe the jets as increasing in velocity (now) ..which I feel was academically missed by the 2017 report background. That's the nature of a new frontiers of science. There are going to be suppositions and postulates that turn out to be both correct, and incorrect ... and around and around we go. I think the speeding flow and increasing wind is distorting SST anomalies over the Pacific northern Basin, that is a new ( or new-ish) aspect of the CC implication envelope. Add that to the list. That, AND... it is also physically proven that 90% of the warming in CC has been absorbed by the oceans. Despite the increased killer heat waves and record general warm episode headline frequency, world over, spanning the last 20 years. So you think that CC is predisposing the Pacific to a -PDO configuration.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Been a tough winter for the KFS. Isn't it always? Hopefully you guys get some love down that way, we haven't done terrible up here. I still think next week could end up interesting for some. Lets see what the GFS rolls out on the craps table at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, UnitedWx said: Isn't it always? Hopefully you guys get some love down that way, we haven't done terrible up here. I still think next week could end up interesting for some. Lets see what the GFS rolls out on the craps table at 12Z 6z GFS offers some snow. I'm just not confident in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Poundtown here. Dozens of flakes per hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Which is sort of odd because it’s MJO projection is markedly worse overall than the EPS is so it’s somewhat strange that on the 00Z ensemble it shows a better setup Strange. Lots of background noise wreaking navoc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 We'll weve achieved a coating here, so thats a win? Thinking 0.5-1" here of pure pixie dust. Steady light snow continues. 26F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Been a tough winter for the KFS. Has it though? I’d say you have really struggled forecasting this winter. You had Tuesdays snow starting after it had already ended . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 We pound ? https://x.com/bobmaxon/status/1748346331972731195?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has it though? most were hugging the globals and had a whiff until shortly beforehand. Not all fortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I like to call it the HI-RESKEV. It's hyper local to the Tolland hills, always comes NW, always come in earlier and NEVER backs down. HI-RISKEV? All in all the time…(AIATT). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So you think that CC is predisposing the Pacific to a -PDO configuration.... I think so... But with the oceans warming at a faster rate ( recently ) than the 30 years trend line ( in other words accelerated rate ) that makes attribution difficult to parse out, which and what owns what. I feel the circulation changes over the last 30 years in general are occurring are too plausibly connected to redistributing the SST. That should be automatic ... Change the wind patterns --> changes that sea surface stressing model. If we can't see that much wrt to than Darwin's already won... (the actual trophy awarding happens when we pretend the anthropogenic CC forcing isn't the cause) But, look at what happened last spring. The oceanic surface anomalies everywhere ... spiked. And, stayed there. The PDO is a moving average. The (-) vs (+) of that longer term teleconnector are based upon very long term seas surface temperature normals. I'm just having trouble with the arithmetic of even using the -PDO, because these above aspects causing the "negative," appear to be modulated too fast( faster) for(than) the longer/multi-decade basis. What it all boils down to is that the -PDO right now ... doesn't mean the same implication on the weather patterns that it physically did back in 1950. Probably not the same as it did in 2000, given the last 20 years of explosions in heat d(rate) being observed. I don't think the current -PDO is driving these current pattern headaches ...etc. The -PDO, and the heart aches, are both a reflection of something else going on, and that something else is most likely CC general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Strange. Lots of background noise wreaking navoc? It’s probably more the EPS is focusing on the whole Pac Jet but reality is by D16 on most of the three ensembles is well past when that issue peaks, it more or less peaks in the next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Giant GOA low in the extended is a classic Super Nino signal....we haven't had it all season, but if it sets up and stays there, then you can probably punt February if there's no blocking. That said, I have no confidence in any pattern staying put for long since it hasn't really done that all since Xmas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So you think that CC is predisposing the Pacific to a -PDO configuration.... John has been hinting at this for a while I think Greta has a inflatable cosmic D and she is waving it at snow lovers along the CP of the North eastern US and every year the D inflates a lil more and pushes the boundary a touch NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Giant GOA low in the extended is a classic Super Nino signal....we haven't had it all season, but if it sets up and stays there, then you can probably punt February if there's no blocking. That said, I have no confidence in any pattern staying put for long since it hasn't really done that all since Xmas. I have 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: John has been hinting at this for a while I think Just wait and see, I guess....I know the "warm blob" was the supposed CC related trend last decade. CC is definely real and having an impact, but the key is understranding exactly what said impact is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Sunday has a shot at being nice for late Jan at least. I mean, the reason for any cold anoms at that point is the eroding stale arctic airmass...Atmosphere aloft is warming nicely by Sunday afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: John has been hinting at this for a while I think Greta has a inflatable cosmic D and she is waving it at snow lovers along the CP of eastern US Greta has a “winter home” in Southington CT herding wolves to head up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Giant GOA low in the extended is a classic Super Nino signal....we haven't had it all season, but if it sets up and stays there, then you can probably punt February if there's no blocking. That said, I have no confidence in any pattern staying put for long since it hasn't really done that all since Xmas. It would at least be nice to be so bad we can just set it and forget it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It would at least be nice to be so bad we can just set it and forget it. That would not be nice in any way shape or form lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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