CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Many had set the bar ripe for February melts . Still no idea how it will play out GEFS (which aren’t great) in the 11-15 day look better than the EPS which are hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the great February forecasts might burn. So sad just like "december feels different" discussions. sucks we have to look into Feb at this point, but we're in a much better spot now than 2-3 wks ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS (which aren’t great) in the 11-15 day look better than the EPS which are hideous. I've seen hideous'er EPS day 11-15 looks 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the great February forecasts might burn. So sad Along with the great January forecasts-remember the big pattern change around xmas was going to lead into a great January? 1st half was a torch followed by a week of mostly dry and cold and then back to a less intense torch the last week. YAWN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Brian5671 said: Along with the great January forecasts-remember the big pattern change around xmas was going to lead into a great January? 1st half was a torch followed by a week of mostly dry and cold and then back to a less intense torch the last week. YAWN. Snowy winters are a thing of the past it seems like. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS (which aren’t great) in the 11-15 day look better than the EPS which are hideous. They bounce around like ping pong balls day 11-15 products are basically a weenie flip of the coin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS (which aren’t great) in the 11-15 day look better than the EPS which are hideous. Yeah at least the GEFS seems like it might be about to improve things in the E Pac up through Alaska at the end, the EPS you’d be 10-15 more days probably til you could reset what it shows at 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Even beyond that panel above, EPS continues to funnel cold air into eastern Canada with a certain amount of ridging N of AK and maybe a weak +NAO. Possibly a gradient pattern, miller B looks, or CAD, but any given storm might have a decent source it could tap into. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 So is it safe to say next weeks snow/ ice events are all off the table? I was thinking I’d need to cancel work trip to BTV next week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I’m approaching the point of the season where I was at Week 6 with the 2023 NE Patriots. Might as well tank it and hope for draft picks. Add another regression deposit to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Might as well just cancel March while we’re at it too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So is it safe to say next weeks snow/ ice events are all off the table? I was thinking I’d need to cancel work trip to BTV next week . I think those are possible in SNE. I just feel the worst period might be 2/3-2/10 or so as far as most mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So is it safe to say next weeks snow/ ice events are all off the table? I was thinking I’d need to cancel work trip to BTV next week . No it's not safe to say that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Man, this place is a bloodbath this AM...glad I tuned out last night. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No chance. Way too dry here and there's a dry push later today from the north Exactly, we'll be lucky to have full cloud coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Might as well just cancel March while we’re at it too I've had March cancelled since November....hope I'm as wrong about March as I may be about February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No it's not safe to say that. I was about to respond...its one bad suite. Sure, its a very realistic concern, but people need to be mindful of this fatalistic thought process that has resulted from the shitty stretch we have been in. Its climo coldest point and Canada is cold...I'm not sold on crap...at least at my locale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No it's not safe to say that. We’ll see what kind of meat 12z offers up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, radarman said: Even beyond that panel above, EPS continues to funnel cold air into eastern Canada with a certain amount of ridging N of AK and maybe a weak +NAO look. Possibly a gradient pattern, miller B looks, or CAD, but any given storm might have a decent source it could tap into. Go forward and check out that PAC blood bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Will we have to replace ULLR with the Pope and the qqanon queen? where we go one we go all, to the torch??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, CoastalWx said: Go forward and check out that PAC blood bath. Really is the Pacific that drives the bus....I remember last decade we had a string of +NAO winters and we just kept rocking because of the Pacific....now its the opposite. We keep getting ineffectual blocking with a shit Pacific. That said, some of it is bad luck and yes...CC doesn't help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: PAC jet ext my fear might come true as we get a repeat of December. It took us weeks to recover for one cold week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: Not sure we ever lost it completely (the thaw was bad though), but it just feels more like January recently. Has been an odd but exciting winter to be honest. Several wet paste jobs, some true fluffers, some record floods and melts. No shortage of exciting weather… the long boring stretches have been absent. Theres been steady snow cover in parts of NNE that has likely influenced the overall tenor of the winter. Its not great, but not terrible either. 00z GFS ends that run in full spring from Texas all the way up to Kansas. It's just as less likely to occur as a big snow event at that range, of course. But I can tell ... as a veritable Rain Main when it comes to cataloging historical weather charts in the brain that I am, you can trust me when I tell you that 570 dm hydrostatic heights ballooning to the latitude of Kansas on February 4 is weird - I don't care what range it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man, 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Go forward and check out that PAC blood bath. It's not in debate that the pac sucks thereafter... the glass half full view is that the warm air push could be cut off at the pass over some of New England. Kind of like the Tuesday potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL like 2 days? You're not familiar with the climate down here, are you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Really is the Pacific that drives the bus....I remember last decade we had a string of +NAO winters and we just kept rocking because of the Pacific....now its the opposite. We keep getting ineffectual blocking with a shit Pacific. That said, some of it is bad luck and yes...CC doesn't help. Later next week holds more promise for a SWFE I think. I’m done commenting because it seems to drive people to the Tobin, just not a fan of the look in the long range. Maybe it changes. That’s JMHO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Really is the Pacific that drives the bus....I remember last decade we had a string of +NAO winters and we just kept rocking because of the Pacific....now its the opposite. We keep getting ineffectual blocking with a shit Pacific. That said, some of it is bad luck and yes...CC doesn't help. Pretty clear this is a multi year pattern. I wonder what will break it? Appear we’ve still had decent snow. Last year higher than average, but very much on the borderline. This year not too bad but slightly behind. But I’m trying to remember when we had what felt like a cold winter with decent snow that tended to predominate the majority of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, 1973. Adjust for CC, and you get a reduction in lower heights over the southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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