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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the great February forecasts might burn.

So sad

Along with the great January forecasts-remember the big pattern change around xmas was going to lead into a great January?  1st half was a torch followed by a week of mostly dry and cold and then back to a less intense torch the last week.  YAWN.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Along with the great January forecasts-remember the big pattern change around xmas was going to lead into a great January?  1st half was a torch followed by a week of mostly dry and cold and then back to a less intense torch the last week.  YAWN.

Snowy winters are a thing of the past it seems like.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS (which aren’t great) in the 11-15 day look better than the EPS which are hideous.

Yeah at least the GEFS seems like it might be about to improve things in the E Pac up through Alaska at the end, the EPS you’d be 10-15 more days probably til you could reset what it shows at 360 

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Even beyond that panel above, EPS continues to funnel cold air into eastern Canada with a certain amount of ridging N of AK and maybe a weak +NAO.  Possibly a gradient pattern,  miller B looks, or CAD, but any given storm might have a decent source it could tap into.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So is it safe to say next weeks snow/ ice events are all off the table? I was thinking I’d need to cancel work trip to BTV next week . 

I think those are possible in SNE.  I just feel the worst period might be 2/3-2/10 or so as far as most mild 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So is it safe to say next weeks snow/ ice events are all off the table? I was thinking I’d need to cancel work trip to BTV next week . 

No it's not safe to say that.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No it's not safe to say that.

I was about to respond...its one bad suite. Sure, its a very realistic concern, but people need to be mindful of this fatalistic thought process that has resulted from the shitty stretch we have been in. Its climo coldest point and Canada is cold...I'm not sold on crap...at least at my locale.

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11 minutes ago, radarman said:

Even beyond that panel above, EPS continues to funnel cold air into eastern Canada with a certain amount of ridging N of AK and maybe a weak +NAO look.  Possibly a gradient pattern,  miller B looks, or CAD, but any given storm might have a decent source it could tap into.

Go forward and check out that PAC blood bath. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Go forward and check out that PAC blood bath. 

Really is the Pacific that drives the bus....I remember last decade we had a string of +NAO winters and we just kept rocking because of the Pacific....now its the opposite. We keep getting ineffectual blocking with a shit Pacific. That said, some of it is bad luck and yes...CC doesn't help.

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Not sure we ever lost it completely (the thaw was bad though), but it just feels more like January recently.  Has been an odd but exciting winter to be honest.

Several wet paste jobs, some true fluffers, some record floods and melts.  No shortage of exciting weather… the long boring stretches have been absent.

Theres been steady snow cover in parts of NNE that has likely influenced the overall tenor of the winter.  Its not great, but not terrible either.

00z GFS ends that run in full spring from Texas all the way up to Kansas.

It's just as less likely to occur as a big snow event at that range, of course.  But I can tell ... as a veritable Rain Main when it comes to cataloging historical weather charts in the brain that I am, you can trust me when I tell you that 570 dm hydrostatic heights ballooning to the latitude of Kansas on February 4 is weird - I don't care what range it is...

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go forward and check out that PAC blood bath. 

It's not in debate that the pac sucks thereafter... the glass half full view is that the warm air push could be cut off at the pass over some of New England.  Kind of like the Tuesday potential.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Really is the Pacific that drives the bus....I remember last decade we had a string of +NAO winters and we just kept rocking because of the Pacific....now its the opposite. We keep getting ineffectual blocking with a shit Pacific. That said, some of it is bad luck and yes...CC doesn't help.

Later next week holds more promise for a SWFE I think. 
 

I’m done commenting because it seems to drive people to the Tobin, just not a fan of the look in the long range. Maybe it changes. That’s JMHO.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Really is the Pacific that drives the bus....I remember last decade we had a string of +NAO winters and we just kept rocking because of the Pacific....now its the opposite. We keep getting ineffectual blocking with a shit Pacific. That said, some of it is bad luck and yes...CC doesn't help.

Pretty clear this is a multi year pattern. I wonder what will break it? Appear we’ve still had decent snow. Last year higher than average, but very much on the borderline. This year not too bad but slightly behind.  But I’m trying to remember when we had what felt like a cold winter with decent snow that tended to predominate the majority of the season

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