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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Climatologically, there tends to be a few events like this every winter.  In many, the wall is south of much of New England.  Time will tell but there is potential for wintry qpf in a lot of places that should be torching.  We'll see how it plays out.

Eh, north of the wall is where warm fronts go to die - that's around Winne's latitude. That line is very well established climatologically. 

Yes there are patterns that prove exceptions but that area is rock solid winter; and that's where I'm referencing.

Being Dry is their #1 enemy to big snowfall seasons. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think the MJO will speed up, but we'll see.

The tendency had been since November EPS too weak/GEFS too strong, both too slow but last 2 weeks EPS strength actually was closer to reality and the GEFS was too strong...now both have grossly changed their forecast the last 4 days so who knows now

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Everyone complaining about below average snowfall would not last one winter in the south...


I have been here 3 weeks and feel spoiled from the 13" of snow I have gotten so far considering I could potentially total out by the end of January with more snow than I have seen in my ENTIRE 29 YEARS OF EXISTENCE (18.5") if the 24th is a thumper, just my perspective

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have seen plenty of SWFE patterns that favored from around the pike points northward and even I 84...just depends and if there is ever a time for cold to get the jump climo wise, its these next few weeks.

Atleast we have high pressure and cold in Quebec modeled. Doesnt have to always be perfect to snow, esp with latitude. Unlike many of the setups the past 2 years, next week won't have a 970 stemwinder over DTW and a high over Bermuda

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17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Everyone complaining about below average snowfall would not last one winter in the south...


I have been here 3 weeks and feel spoiled from the 13" of snow I have gotten so far considering I could potentially total out by the end of January with more snow than I have seen in my ENTIRE 29 YEARS OF EXISTENCE (18.5") if the 24th is a thumper, just my perspective

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I spent 2016-2017 in NOVA. We had 1” of SLEET in mid March that winter. That’s it. That was the winter.  After that, I moved to the Mid Atlantic of Massachusetts. Cape Ann. 2014-2015 was my last good winter. It’s been a decade of regression for me. 
 

The 12z GFS man HP would save next week. Either get us on the cold side or blast through with the warmth. No straddling the line with 38F rain/drizzle. 

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6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Atleast we have high pressure and cold in Quebec modeled. Doesnt have to always be perfect to snow, esp with latitude. Unlike many of the setups the past 2 years, next week won't have a 970 stemwinder over DTW and a high over Bermuda

We got spoiled for years with those highs in Quebec…those La Niña seasons where we were getting several warning events on SWFEs while south and west furnaced. 
 

Hopefully we can grab in next week because it’s even a while as you said. These aren’t some obscenely rare feature…they do happen semi-frequently, but it was like pulling teeth the last couple seasons to get one. 

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34 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Eh, north of the wall is where warm fronts go to die - that's around Winne's latitude. That line is very well established climatologically. 

Yes there are patterns that prove exceptions but that area is rock solid winter; and that's where I'm referencing.

Being Dry is their #1 enemy to big snowfall seasons. 

Well this year so far dry isn’t the issue.  The pattern next week features the lurking  cold to our north.  I’ve been around long enough to see beautiful June days ruined by it while occasionally we end up surprisingly wintry during the cold season especially north of the pike.

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week looks like more of an icing concern in SNE than snow. With snow in NNE..That’s not me wanting that (though I do).. that’s the look it has 

Lord ...... You want ice in the worst way. You ever try cryotherapy? You can freeze your ass off and get encrusted and ice ( if you go and soak and wet of course ). You are one of a kind Kev..lol

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week looks like more of an icing concern in SNE than snow. With snow in NNE..That’s not me wanting that (though I do).. that’s the look it has 

Too early too tell IMO, but I think Tuesday has a better shot than later next week with the follow up wave 

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12 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Too early too tell IMO, but I think Tuesday has a better shot than later next week with the follow up wave 

Yeah agreed there . I remember a similar setup in early 2000’s .. before 05 when models morphed from a warm , rainy period to snow and ice in the days leading up to it . Same high strength and position .

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

I argue with myself about that. I really like events like Tuesdays. I would happily take a solid day or three of snow only accumulating 8 inches "days and days:lol:" over a large event if it happened fairly consistent throughout the season... but ask me again in six months

Our 1st few months in Fort Kent (and some other periods there) displayed the lots-of-modest events snow.  From when we moved there on Jan 1 thru the 1.5" on May 7 as I tilled the garden, we had 93.5" with no events larger than 8".  (They did have at least one double-digit storm in Dec 1975.)

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah agreed there . I remember a similar setup in early 2000’s .. before 05 when models morphed from a warm , rainy period to snow and ice in the days leading up to it . Same high strength and position .

:lol: 

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26 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Stay safe. May the bust, if any, be in your favor. 

haha, lets keep this atmosphere moist for tomorrow so we can pull off a couple of inches

9 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Is it really snowing in like Danbury area of ct?


.

Legit light snow, just started to accumulate on everything besides the heavily salted roadway

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