dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like my spot for that....for the same reason that I sometimes get porked by those dry air corridors flowing down from Maine during CJ events. I'm always onboard with an overrunning event up here, We do well in them generally speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One thing I don't mind about CC is the increased frequency of larger events at the expense of currier and ives shit. Sign me up for that....I am okay with missing out on days like Tuesday in favor of more like January 7th even if the overall total drops a bit. ..I disagree. I've always like the smaller events in addition to the larger events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, dryslot said: I'm always onboard with an overrunning event up here, We do well in them generally speaking. Yea, coastals are hit and miss for us, but SWFE/overrunning usually have a high floor here.....though I def need a stronger high than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One thing I don't mind about CC is the increased frequency of larger events at the expense of currier and ives shit. Sign me up for that....I am okay with missing out on days like Tuesday in favor of more like January 7th even if the overall total drops a bit. I argue with myself about that. I really like events like Tuesdays. I would happily take a solid day or three of snow only accumulating 8 inches "days and days" over a large event if it happened fairly consistent throughout the season... but ask me again in six months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, UnitedWx said: I argue with myself about that. I really like events like Tuesdays. I would happily take a solid day or three of snow only accumulating 8 inches "days and days" over a large event if it happened fairly consistent throughout the season... but ask me again in six months If the timing were better, sure...but yesterday right during the day following a holiday...not quite bad enough to get the day off, but bad enough to be a nuisance....eh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Another monster high late week on this gfs run. Hopwfully we can keep things interesting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It would be nice to make lemonade from a lemon set up, instead of making lactose intolerant rhea from a hot fudge Sundae set up for once. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Actually squishes the system south verbatim but whatever. Nice to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If the timing were better, sure...but yesterday right during the day following a holiday...not quite bad enough to get the day off, but bad enough to be a nuisance....eh. Well nuisance, it's only a nuisance when the snow blower's shit the bed... but I fixed that. Thank God for garage heat! And well, well.. look at that high pressure flexing for next Wednesday. That has a nice look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, coastals are hit and miss for us, but SWFE/overrunning usually have a high floor here.....though I def need a stronger high than you do. Yes, Especially Miller A's, Im not to crazy about them, Better down south for them as there LBSW before here if they even make it up here, But i won't kick a Miller B to the curb either up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Yeah GFS shows you how to run a shitty pattern. Man oh Man 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It would be nice to make lemonade from a lemon set up, instead of making lactose intolerant rhea from a hot fudge Sundae set up for once. Has not been very many events that have panned out over that last few years in a positive way outside of a few days ago's event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Well nuisance, it's only a nuisance when the snow blower's shit the bed... but I fixed that. Thank God for garage heat! And well, well.. look at that high pressure flexing for next Wednesday. That has a nice look I afforded myself an "out clause" next week in yesterday's blog.... However, the primary difference between this milder period and the stretch earlier in the season is that the higher heights should be focused across the northeastern CONUS, as dictated by the aforementioned tropical forcing. The is in sharp contrast to the period in December, in which a potent Pacific jet eradicated the entire North American continent of cold air. This means that while the pattern will certainly grow much milder, the cold air source will remain nearby and thus wintry threats cannot be ruled out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nickels and dimes events can work like the GFS has, Better then the alternative. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like my spot for that....for the same reason that I sometimes get porked by those dry air corridors flowing down from Maine during CJ events. Yeah. Closer to the high. Should still work okay in the Berks, but a changeover will arrive sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Nickels and dimes events can work like the GFS has, Better then the alternative. Lewiston Maine. Sure. But the op runs with the -NAO look, with snow potential into coastal SNE are just evil. The ops notoriously lag the teleconnection shifts, but this lag is likely especially pronounced given the unusual spike we're seeing in both the NAO and AO indexes. It's a shit pattern that will produce shit, except north of the wall. The GEFS and EPS are much more reliable here, even at 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Lewiston Maine. Sure. But the op runs with the -NAO look, with snow potential into coastal SNE are just evil. The ops notoriously lag the teleconnection shifts, but this lag is likely especially pronounced given the unusual spike we're seeing in both the NAO and AO indexes. It's a shit pattern that will produce shit, except north of the wall. The GEFS and EPS are much more reliable here, even at 5 days. Maybe you end up correct, but this latitude can do just fine with a +AO/NAO and cold Canada......December 2007 is a perfect example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Our "Canadian High" "Eff you Cya" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Lewiston Maine. Sure. But the op runs with the -NAO look, with snow potential into coastal SNE are just evil. The ops notoriously lag the teleconnection shifts, but this lag is likely especially pronounced given the unusual spike we're seeing in both the NAO and AO indexes. It's a shit pattern that will produce shit, except north of the wall. The GEFS and EPS are much more reliable here, even at 5 days. Climatologically, there tends to be a few events like this every winter. In many, the wall is south of much of New England. Time will tell but there is potential for wintry qpf in a lot of places that should be torching. We'll see how it plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You know its bad when you lose count of how many years its been since you sniffed normal snowfall. I think 17-18 was close, every other year since was ten to thirty inches below and 17-18 here wasn't anything special that March and early April like it was elsewhere in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe you end up correct, but this latitude can do just fine with a +AO/NAO and cold Canada......December 2007 is a perfect example. I think the better argument is if the MJO and forecasted teles are wrong.... If they're right and you bake this into the op runs with that general longwave pattern, it's ugly. Very much like that 6z EPS evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I think the better argument is if the MJO and forecasted teles are wrong.... If they're right and you bake this into the op runs with that general longwave pattern, it's ugly. Very much like that 6z EPS evolution. TBH, I won't be surprised if I see 100% rain or 100% snow...not very insightful, I know...but just depends where the boundary sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I think the better argument is if the MJO and forecasted teles are wrong.... If they're right and you bake this into the op runs with that general longwave pattern, it's ugly. Very much like that 6z EPS evolution. You definitely do not want the GEFS idea today of it re-emerging in 3 to be correct...its better for it to just go totally dormant and do nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: You definitely do not want the GEFS idea today of it re-emerging in 3 to be correct...its better for it to just go totally dormant and do nothing It’s not going to go totally dormant… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 31 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm always onboard with an overrunning event up here, We do well in them generally speaking. That's definitely meat-and-potatoes for CNE/NNE. Seems like it's been a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: It’s not going to go totally dormant… This argues for forcing progressing westward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Since 2016, sure.....like we had bad luck in the 80s/early 90s and late 90's, too. Again, need a larger sample size. I agree, sample size needs to be bigger, maybe this is all a bad memory in a few years and we can go back to arguing about jackpots....But was it bad luck during those other periods or just a bad pattern? CC has accelerated, but was still a factor back then as well, so who knows....Hopefully the GFS has a clue about next week, would finally be something that is in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s not going to go totally dormant… It certainly could, for the majority of winters it generally is a non-factor...it just so happens its been unusually active the last 4-5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, PWMan said: That's definitely meat-and-potatoes for CNE/NNE. Seems like it's been a little while. Base builders, For my liking, Better then fluffa nutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Spanks45 said: I agree, sample size needs to be bigger, maybe this is all a bad memory in a few years and we can go back to arguing about jackpots....But was it bad luck during those other periods or just a bad pattern? CC has accelerated, but was still a factor back then as well, so who knows....Hopefully the GFS has a clue about next week, would finally be something that is in our favor Usually both...I think the late 90's were genuinely worse than the 80s, which had some bad luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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