40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah... well, that's why I suggest a combination of 'deck loading against,' together with bad luck. It's impossible - probably - to parse out how much is which - Yea, the climate is definitely warming...no doubt. But on top of that the multi-decadal pattern has been tilted against the east coast. They have been doing just fine out west, despite CC....and again, I get the CC predisposing us to MC forcing argument, but I am not ready to accept that as a permeant change, just as I wasn't with respect to the GOA "warm blob" phenomenon that we benefited from last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I feel for folks in CNE and SNE. Our last several winters have barely worked because when it's not been hostile we've squeezed out a lot of marginal events. Still a bad stretch starting in 19-20 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, NW_of_GYX said: I feel for folks in CNE and SNE. Our last several winters have barely worked because when it's not been hostile we've squeezed out a lot of marginal events. Still a bad stretch starting in 19-20 here. I have definitely had it better than SNE the past year an a half, but the prior several years were a real butt-plug for my spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Ya it's def not a BN look going into Feb but I still like where the cold is. That's a look that could torch much of the CONUS while we wedge. That SWFE thing on the 24th is worth keeping an eye on for NNE. We watch, We wait, In the meantime, Its time to hit the trails, Going north this weekend and next weekend too, Have to make lemonade when you have the lemons. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: We watch, We wait, In the meantime, Its time to hit the trails, Going north this weekend and next weekend too, Have to make lemonade when you have the lemons. You need to make lemonade when ma nature insists on kicking you in the lemons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Outer cape might gets some OES Saturday Night/Sun morning. maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the climate is definitely warming...no doubt. But on top of that the multi-decadal pattern has been tilted against the east coast. They have been doing just fine out west, despite CC....and again, I get the CC predisposing us to MC forcing argument, but I am not ready to accept that as a permeant change, just as I wasn't with respect to the GOA "warm blob" phenomenon that we benefited from last decade. Many parts of the west are helped out by elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: Many parts of the west are helped out by elevation. I understand that, but the positive temp departures haven't been extreme, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: I feel for folks in CNE and SNE. Our last several winters have barely worked because when it's not been hostile we've squeezed out a lot of marginal events. Still a bad stretch starting in 19-20 here. I guess some would say in 10 years that same pattern would yield a further push up and in until you see it break favorably in marginal events .. due to warming over that period or maybe that won’t be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the climate is definitely warming...no doubt. But on top if that the multi-decadal pattern has been tilted against the east coast. They have been doing just fine out west, despite CC....and again, I get the CC predisposing is to MC forcing argument, but I am not ready to accept that as a permeant change, just as I wasn't the GOA "warm blob" phenomenon that we benefited from last decade. The great plains and northeast have been the places most warmed in winter, and it is untested waters as to whether that is a pattern that continues, but in general it makes some sense that the colder places warm the most. Let's say it doesn't though, even those places have warmed, and we'll end up in the same place regardless, further down the line, if it's more pattern-driven. I think there's obviously scope for infrequent blockbuster storms, and even more than normal snow in the interior, due to climate change, in the right set ups, but that is just going to lead to a monumental view of history, wherein big events tend to colour perspectives. The coast is different though. If you're already in a spot that is kind of liminal for snow, and inexorably average temperatures increase, you're just going to see less snow, and more subtly, you'll have a lot less time feeling like winter. I know the winter of the last few years, I grew up in it when I was young. It feels like a winter in the north of england. It is cold but not really, it is very wet and rainy. You're more likely to flood. It doesn't snow usually, but it can. You keep a sled in your basement that you don't use, because one day you might get to use it. Your parents remember using it more. The ponds don't freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You need to make lemonade when ma nature insists on kicking you in the lemons. We good, Have to go get after it, Its there for the taking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I remeber back in the 2010s when we were having amazing snow seasons there were people saying how lucky we'd been and sending out warnings that at some point the tables would turn, and boy did they ever. We are definitely paying the price now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, WJX231 said: I remeber back in the 2010s when we were having amazing snow seasons there were people saying how lucky we'd been and sending out warnings that at some point the tables would turn, and boy did they ever. We are definitely paying the price now. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: We watch, We wait, In the meantime, Its time to hit the trails, Going north this weekend and next weekend too, Have to make lemonade when you have the lemons. It’s another beautiful winter day out today. Headed to the mountain right now. Have a great time this weekend, cold weather should keep some of the idiots off the trails 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 One thing I don't mind about CC is the increased frequency of larger events at the expense of currier and ives shit. Sign me up for that....I am okay with missing out on days like Tuesday in favor of more like January 7th even if the overall total drops a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Fully expect more favorable winters to return to the NE. But can’t deny CC either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: It’s another beautiful winter day out today. Headed to the mountain right now. Have a great time this weekend, cold weather should keep some of the idiots off the trails Awesome, Enjoy, Thanks, Generally, We ride during the week where the traffic is pretty low, But for the next two, Its sat-Sun this week and Fr-Sun next week, Then back to going up Thurs am and ride Thurs-Fri-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 What a man high next week on GFS. We hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said: Fully expect more favorable winters to return to the NE. But can’t deny CC either. 100% agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One thing I don't mind about CC is the increased frequency of larger events at the expense of currier and ives shit. Sign me up for that....I am okay with missing out on days like Tuesday in favor of more like January 7th even if the overall total drops a bit. Oh 100% this for me as well. If CC increases my odds of seeing big dogs like 1978, 1996 and 2005 then sign me up. It's just the waiting period in between that blows. Also, events like Dec 1992 and March 2001 would be crushing for me because we were so close to something historic but it was just too far north. Its much harder nowadays to get a good blocking cold pattern but Feb 2015 showed us that it can still happen, its just very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a man high next week on GFS. We hope. 1040mb+ should push the boundary more south, Torch cancel up here, I've had my eye on weds next week, Didn't bother with the friday non event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, WJX231 said: Oh 100% this for me as well. If CC increases my odds of seeing big dogs like 1978, 1996 and 2005 then sign me up. It's just the waiting period in between that blows. Also, events like Dec 1992 and March 2001 would be crushing for me because we were so close to something historic but it was just too far north. Its much harder nowadays to get a good blocking cold pattern but Feb 2015 showed up that it can still happen, its just very rare. Its been worse these past several years, though...definitely exacerbated to some degree by a generally hostile Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 1040mb+ should push the boundary more south, Torch cancel up here. That probably even works for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a man high next week on GFS. We hope. Don't worry still plenty of time left for that to go down the toilet too 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Don't worry still plenty of time left for that to go down the toilet too Not typical for models to pick up on that feature this far out, Usually its when we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Classic overrunning setup on GFS. High-ceiling event as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah... well, that's why I suggest a combination of 'deck loading against,' together with bad luck. It's impossible - probably - to parse out how much is which - Since no one right now has a clue just how much CC is impacting our weather patterns, maybe we are looking at it the wrong way....maybe CC is the bad luck factor As years go by it seems like bad luck is becoming more and more of our issue around here with regards to snow. Here in Southbury, I average 45ish inches per season...now unless we have 2 or more 10-15 inch events, we are almost guaranteed a below or well below average season. When in the past we probably averaged one, 10-15 inch event ever 2 years but still had enough snow to establish that average. Something is definitely broken, maybe bad luck is just voodoo at this point and should be looked at as something else causing our snow issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, RDRY said: Classic overrunning setup on GFS. High-ceiling event as modeled. I like my spot for that....for the same reason that I sometimes get porked by those dry air corridors flowing down from Maine during CJ events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Canadien has the 24th too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Since no one right now has a clue just how much CC is impacting our weather patterns, maybe we are looking at it the wrong way....maybe CC is the bad luck factor As years go by it seems like bad luck is becoming more and more of our issue around here with regards to snow. Here in Southbury, I average 45ish inches per season...now unless we have 2 or more 10-15 inch events, we are almost guaranteed a below or well below average season. When in the past we probably averaged one, 10-15 inch event ever 2 years but still had enough snow to establish that average. Something is definitely broken, maybe bad luck is just voodoo at this point and should be looked at as something else causing our snow issues. Since 2016, sure.....like we had bad luck in the 80s/early 90s and late 90's, too. Again, need a larger sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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