qg_omega Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 26 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Does Jay Peak really have 187” on the season? Seems ridiculous? PF? I believe they had over 100 before the big rainstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It's been an interesting season for model performance ... it's been A, or F. Not a lot of mediocrity there. This handling of this recent event was piss poor in the global runs. I don't consider their ceding to the event with just 30 hours remaining before dandruff as acceptable. Booya to the meso models - particularly the RGEM which took the trophy in performance. Sans details and people just not being happy with the d-drip dosing, probably skewing the fairer judgement for it ..., the essence of getting an event out of the performance window actually seen by technology that is supposed to be able to see it ... the RGEM was miles ahead of the pack. The NAM comes in a second on that...perhaps the ICON 3rd - I do recall some consistency around a 3 or 4" interior result from that particular guidance. Anyway, going back the system that dropped the 6-16" across the interior the week before...the global models were outstanding on that one. The one next week - I prooobably shouldn't be too optimistic about that at this range. It's not really anchored in telecon signaling, and the ens means may be too noisy to handle the delicate nature of that set up. Which leaves it up to the operationals to be right with less support. Eek! But I've seen that type of snow event 'sneak up' on forecasters back in the 1980s and 1990s - prior to present day modeling standards. You get that NW-SE oriented polar boundary and then sustainable isentrophic lift develops over top. What looked like a warm interlude ends up shunted to PA, while we contend with episodic gunky snows and mix. You know,... ( can't believe I'm saying this with Kevin in ear shot) but that could also evolve into an icing scenario. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 low of 7.7 this morning, coldest of the season. pretty sad that I have only had single digits twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 hours ago, WinterWolf said: What double digit blizzards? There was one blizzard that I remember in 15-16…And it fringed the area, and buried the mid Atlantic in January. I got about 10 inches from it, and south and west in CT got lots more, and NYC got like 30”. Once you got north of here, it went down exponentially. I don’t remember any other blizzard in ‘16? Not a blizzard from the second one, but a double digit snow storm. First one was 14 1/2 here and the 2nd big one was Feb 5th which was 10-11" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: And not much of a warmup here? She back? Eh. Never looked that warm here. A lot of NW flow and 30s to 40ish and maybe we knife in a BD colder shot here and there. Probably some snow with the WAA next week but looks like advisory or less right now. I’m just hoping to avoid any big cold. This weekend is cold enough for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I believe it's legit guys - just my 2 cents.... As I'm sure both of you are aware, this below has been a consistent feature on or around the 24th for many runs... Sometimes more than less actual snow, but the same synoptic cinema. It's now also showing up in the operational Euro more than less. The thing is, this sort of event tends to get buried in the noise of the means so those are less useful at this range. It is also not a telecon signaled type, either. I don't have a problem with it. I posted that episodic confluence across the Canadian shield would threaten the homogenized warmth idea a day or two ago. But, folks get caught up in the neg- head meme thing, so it's not really probably being read very well... ha. I know the feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I believe they had over 100 before the big rainstorms When you you believe is the most favorable stretch between now and 3/31? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not only that... the one about day and half after the 24th -ish has also been surprising consistent. Very similar to the predecessor... After all that, we may begin to see the N/A look tilt in favor a low amplitude +PNA, with overriding -EPO loading cold. Higher hopes for that last week of January into the first week of February from my desk. Well, hopefully your desk has a higher return rate, because most of SNE is about ready to toss mine out the window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s a little tenuous so I’d wait. Looks like cirrus tomorrow. Maybe a dusting toward Kevin. Blows. 1-3” on track to pike. Nothing has changed. Dustings as far as S NH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess there’s an outside shot of C-1” to the pike, but afraid the low level dry air wins. Maybe eastern PYM county gets some OES, but hi res are really meager all around. I think that is what I had in the map....1" or less pike points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Yeah there’s two chances. Second one might be more wintry but not worth getting into detail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that is what I had in the map....1" or less pike points south. BOX went wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, CoastalWx said: BOX went wild. Another 3.5 for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not in love with the ensembles to start February… we wait? I think its much more likely you wait, than we wait... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Another 3.5 for you? I feel like one of the prominent BOX mets resides on the cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that is what I had in the map....1" or less pike points south. You know winters bad when....you have a hard time remembering what your own map looks like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: BOX went wild. I went 1-3" for far SW CT and ACK...other than that, an inch to perhaps 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Eh. Never looked that warm here. A lot of NW flow and 30s to 40ish and maybe we knife in a BD colder shot here and there. Probably some snow with the WAA next week but looks like advisory or less right now. I’m just hoping to avoid any big cold. This weekend is cold enough for me. The late week one moderate, the early week one light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: You know winters bad when....you have a hard time remembering what your own map looks like. A part of me died when I made that. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The Mets LOVE the HREF model I always check that now inside of 60 hours mean gives Scott 4” and matches that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think its much more likely you wait, than we wait... That block north of Alaska solid on all 3. That is almost always good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Another 3.5 for you? Snowy day on tap for many tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Tomorrow's system is kick in the balls. Just can't get the s/w's to amplify when we need them to. Instead they just slide off the coast and east to the flemish cap. Annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's been an interesting season for model performance ... it's been A, or F. Not a lot of mediocrity there. This handling of this recent event was piss poor in the global runs. I don't consider their ceding to the event with just 30 hours remaining before dandruff as acceptable. Booya to the meso models - particularly the RGEM which took the trophy in performance. Sans details and people just not being happy with the d-drip dosing, probably skewing the fairer judgement for it ..., the essence of getting an event out of the performance window actually seen by technology that is supposed to be able to see it ... the RGEM was miles ahead of the pack. The NAM comes in a second on that...perhaps the ICON 3rd - I do recall some consistency around a 3 or 4" interior result from that particular guidance. Anyway, going back the system that dropped the 6-16" across the interior the week before...the global models were outstanding on that one. The one next week - I prooobably shouldn't be too optimistic about that at this range. It's not really anchored in telecon signaling, and the ens means may be too noisy to handle the delicate nature of that set up. Which leaves it up to the operationals to be right with less support. Eek! But I've seen that type of snow event 'sneak up' on forecasters back in the 1980s and 1990s - prior to present day modeling standards. You get that NW-SE oriented polar boundary and then sustainable isentrophic lift develops over top. What looked like a warm interlude ends up shunted to PA, while we contend with episodic gunky snows and mix. You know,... ( can't believe I'm saying this with Kevin in ear shot) but that could also evolve into an icing scenario. I was very happy with the NAM thermal fields...I had ice getting into NH going off of that and nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was very happy with the NAM thermal fields...I had ice getting into NH going off of that and nailed it. Perfect example of knowing how and when to use guidance...all you hear is how useless the NAM is and that just isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The Mets LOVE the HREF model I always check that now inside of 60 hours mean gives Scott 4” and matches that map It's pretty bullish for this one. I don't know much about its accuracy but anecdotally it seems to be a bit high a lot of the time. I like using it for 1/hr rates, probs and ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The Mets LOVE the HREF model I always check that now inside of 60 hours mean gives Scott 4” and matches that map HREF is always wild until 12 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That's actually a high amplitude +PNA. Lower heights N/NE of Hawaii, higher heights over western continent is the hallmark of +PNA. Only that Euro means is very deep and widely integrated N of Hawaii, terminating into a flatter western N/A ridge... The problem is, the amplitude is there but not expressed in the N-S(meridian). This is a problem of fundamental physics ( really..) in that higher velocity tends not to go around sharper angled trajectories. When the flow is gradient soaked, and thus fast ... the curves in the flow tend to stretch like that. I'm just commenting on the pattern foot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I.E HC gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: That block north of Alaska solid on all 3. That is almost always good for us. The GEPS and especially the EPS is good to go...the GEFS has a "just cold enough to snow" appeal to me...this is for most of SNE points N. I can see why @Allsnowhates the GEFS look, especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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