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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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It's been an interesting season for model performance ... it's been A, or F.  Not a lot of mediocrity there.  

This handling of this recent event was piss poor in the global runs. I don't consider their ceding to the event with just 30 hours remaining before dandruff as acceptable.  Booya to the meso models - particularly the RGEM which took the trophy in performance.  Sans details and people just not being happy with the d-drip dosing, probably skewing the fairer judgement for it ..., the essence of getting an event out of the performance window actually seen by technology that is supposed to be able to see it ... the RGEM was miles ahead of the pack.  The NAM comes in a second on that...perhaps the ICON 3rd - I do recall some consistency around a 3 or 4" interior result from that particular guidance.

Anyway, going back the system that dropped the 6-16" across the interior the week before...the global models were outstanding on that one. 

The one next week - I prooobably shouldn't be too optimistic about that at this range. It's not really anchored in telecon signaling, and the ens means may be too noisy to handle the delicate nature of that set up.  Which leaves it up to the operationals to be right with less support.  Eek!  But I've seen that type of snow event 'sneak up' on forecasters back in the 1980s and 1990s - prior to present day modeling standards.  You get that NW-SE oriented polar boundary and then sustainable isentrophic lift develops over top. What looked like a warm interlude ends up shunted to PA, while we contend with episodic gunky snows and mix.   You know,... ( can't believe I'm saying this with Kevin in ear shot) but that could also evolve into an icing scenario.

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6 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What double digit blizzards?  There was one blizzard that I remember in 15-16…And it fringed the area, and buried the mid Atlantic in January.  I got about 10 inches from it, and south and west in CT got lots more, and NYC got like 30”.  Once you got north of here, it went down exponentially. I don’t remember any other blizzard in ‘16? 

Not a blizzard from the second one, but a double digit snow storm. First one was 14 1/2 here and the 2nd big one was Feb 5th which was 10-11" here.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

And not much of a warmup here?  She back?

Eh. Never looked that warm here. A lot of NW flow and 30s to 40ish and maybe we knife in a BD colder shot here and there. Probably some snow with the WAA next week but looks like advisory or less right now. I’m just hoping to avoid any big cold. This weekend is cold enough for me. 

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I believe it's legit guys - just my 2 cents.... As I'm sure both of you are aware, this below has been a consistent feature on or around the 24th for many runs... Sometimes more than less actual snow, but the same synoptic cinema. It's now also showing up in the operational Euro more than less.

The thing is, this sort of event tends to get buried in the noise of the means so those are less useful at this range.  It is also not a telecon signaled type, either.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

I don't have a problem with it. I posted that episodic confluence across the Canadian shield would threaten the homogenized warmth idea a day or two ago. But, folks get caught up in the neg- head meme thing, so it's not really probably being read very well...  ha. 

I know the feeling.

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not only that... the one about day and half after the 24th -ish has also been surprising consistent. Very similar to the predecessor...

After all that, we may begin to see the N/A look tilt in favor a low amplitude +PNA, with overriding -EPO loading cold.  Higher hopes for that last week of January into the first week of February from my desk.

Well, hopefully your desk has a higher return rate, because most of SNE is about ready to toss mine out the window. :lol:

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Eh. Never looked that warm here. A lot of NW flow and 30s to 40ish and maybe we knife in a BD colder shot here and there. Probably some snow with the WAA next week but looks like advisory or less right now. I’m just hoping to avoid any big cold. This weekend is cold enough for me. 

The late week one moderate, the early week one light.

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's been an interesting season for model performance ... it's been A, or F.  Not a lot of mediocrity there.  

This handling of this recent event was piss poor in the global runs. I don't consider their ceding to the event with just 30 hours remaining before dandruff as acceptable.  Booya to the meso models - particularly the RGEM which took the trophy in performance.  Sans details and people just not being happy with the d-drip dosing, probably skewing the fairer judgement for it ..., the essence of getting an event out of the performance window actually seen by technology that is supposed to be able to see it ... the RGEM was miles ahead of the pack.  The NAM comes in a second on that...perhaps the ICON 3rd - I do recall some consistency around a 3 or 4" interior result from that particular guidance.

Anyway, going back the system that dropped the 6-16" across the interior the week before...the global models were outstanding on that one. 

The one next week - I prooobably shouldn't be too optimistic about that at this range. It's not really anchored in telecon signaling, and the ens means may be too noisy to handle the delicate nature of that set up.  Which leaves it up to the operationals to be right with less support.  Eek!  But I've seen that type of snow event 'sneak up' on forecasters back in the 1980s and 1990s - prior to present day modeling standards.  You get that NW-SE oriented polar boundary and then sustainable isentrophic lift develops over top. What looked like a warm interlude ends up shunted to PA, while we contend with episodic gunky snows and mix.   You know,... ( can't believe I'm saying this with Kevin in ear shot) but that could also evolve into an icing scenario.

I was very happy with the NAM thermal fields...I had ice getting into NH going off of that and nailed it.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The Mets LOVE the HREF model 

I always check that now inside of 60 hours 

mean gives Scott 4” and matches that map

It's pretty bullish for this one. I don't know much about its accuracy but anecdotally it seems to be a bit high a lot of the time. I like using it for 1/hr rates, probs and ICE

snowfall_024h_mean_ne.f04800.thumb.png.637fd68e332c495794367e4625536e3a.png

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That's actually a high amplitude +PNA.   Lower heights N/NE of Hawaii, higher heights over western continent is the hallmark of +PNA.  Only that Euro means is very deep and widely integrated N of Hawaii, terminating into a flatter western N/A ridge...

The problem is, the amplitude is there but not expressed in the N-S(meridian). This is a problem of fundamental physics ( really..) in that higher velocity tends not to go around sharper angled trajectories.  When the flow is gradient soaked, and thus fast ... the curves in the flow tend to stretch like that. 

I'm just commenting on the pattern foot...

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8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That block north of Alaska solid on all 3.  That is almost always good for us.

The GEPS and especially the EPS is good to go...the GEFS has a "just cold enough to snow" appeal to me...this is for most of SNE points N. I can see why @Allsnowhates the GEFS look, especially.

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