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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro still real paltry on Friday. 

Looking at the soundings for CT, it appears the GFS is the only model saturating the low levels; The 18z Euro keeps the low levels relatively dry right through the event?  

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The SST argument is always really bizarre to me…esp in January. It has very little to do with the longwave pattern. It maybe cost the coastline a bit more snow in the 1/7 event but we’re talking on the margins. 
 

The SSTs offshore could’ve been 3C colder and December still would’ve been an abomination. 

Not to mention, the SSTs in our hood are not warm!

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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9 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Looking at the soundings for CT, it appears the GFS is the only model saturating the low levels; The 18z Euro keeps the low levels relatively dry right through the event?  

Low level dry air is a major problem on the Friday setup. If we had less dry air, it prob wouldn’t be that hard to get a fluffy 2-5” event for a lot of the area but it’s gonna be tough to saturate. South coast looks the best right now for obvious reasons. 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

What do you look at when you interpret a model output?   I mean do you know how miserable you on the internet?  I don’t think you’re actually that way but man-gfs lines up with the box map actually!

I mean, is being pessimistic about a weak event where we on the northern fringe with tons of dry air really being miserable? Or is that just being realistic?

Theres no doubt that if something breaks right someone could see a fluffy few inches, but the euro is incredibly paltry, along with the Canadian.

 

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3 hours ago, George001 said:

It has been a non winter, +5 AN with well below normal snow here. My area doesn’t do well in strong and super ninos. The strength of the El Niño -PDO, and well AN Atlantic SSTs (especially bad news for the coastal plain) were overlooked. It’s not overcompensation, it’s telling it like it is. I do think next winter will be a more favorable pattern here though, should be another La Niña rather than this strong nino crap. I do think big winters are still on the table even with CC, but this just isn’t our year. It is what it is, it looked like it might become good a couple weeks ago but that didn’t pan out.

it’s fucking January 17 you clown

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1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Only a few spots in NE that hasn't had a 12" storm recently. Would be interesting to see a 24" map...

 

Crap period here imby :axe: 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I beg of thee. Can we please, please get this? Please 

https://x.com/tkranz23/status/1747758251452826028?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

That’s what I posted 

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5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Wow, who’d a thunk the Allagash was a snow hole?

I think its more a lack of  observations up there. That data set always seems to be low in NW ME, even on the daily time scales. Same for the non downslope areas of NNH. 

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Just was outside standing under clear starlit skies without a coat on, I asked myself that eternal question "how much longer do I stand here while my labradors fail to find the tennis ball in the snow?"

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