MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: That storm really was awful for the coastal areas of the northeast. I was only 12 y/o and in NNJ then but clearly remember the infamous snow map that the weather channel had up 1.5 days before the start of almost all of PA-NJ-SNE in purple saying 2-3 feet, locally more. Then remember that Sunday night the bust started going public with a now 3”-6” forecast, heartbreaking. That one hurt, so did 1/05 and 1/15. Just missed in NNJ-NYC while SNE got croaked in all of them. Got our revenge so to speak in 1/16 but the pain of those others was too much and moved up here 6/17, for personal reasons too. Sorry for the side track down memory lane. Please move to banter if need be The best thing to come out of that storm was that schools were closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, George001 said: We’re back to tracking patterns rather than concrete threats in mid Jan….. ratter. your overcompensation in the other direction from a year ago has been absolutely extraordinary to witness 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: i know Ray’s had several 30 burgers so a 25 spot must not make his top 5 but regardless of personal experience, that amount is extraordinary for SNE climo. I mean, i’d do some really nasty things for 25”. I’ve only eclipsed that once in my lifetime…Jan96. we did it here last year but I think the last time before that was NEMO for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: your overcompensation in the other direction from a year ago has been absolutely extraordinary to witness It has been a non winter, +5 AN with well below normal snow here. My area doesn’t do well in strong and super ninos. The strength of the El Niño -PDO, and well AN Atlantic SSTs (especially bad news for the coastal plain) were overlooked. It’s not overcompensation, it’s telling it like it is. I do think next winter will be a more favorable pattern here though, should be another La Niña rather than this strong nino crap. I do think big winters are still on the table even with CC, but this just isn’t our year. It is what it is, it looked like it might become good a couple weeks ago but that didn’t pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, George001 said: It has been a non winter, +5 AN with well below normal snow here. My area doesn’t do well in strong and super ninos. The strength of the El Niño -PDO, and well AN Atlantic SSTs (especially bad news for the coastal plain) were overlooked. It’s not overcompensation, it’s telling it like it is. I do think next winter will be a more favorable pattern here though, should be another La Niña rather than this strong nino crap. can we wait until the winter is, you know, over before people assign it a grade? I don't know why that's so hard for some 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 May need to take em up https://x.com/awxnyc/status/1747709218260439063?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: can we wait until the winter is, you know, over before people assign it a grade? I don't know why that's so hard for some Even if we get snow in Feb and Mar (we will, we do even in our worst winters), it’s very unlikely it will be enough to bring us to average, and even if it does the grade will be low due to overall temps and lack of snowcover. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, George001 said: It has been a non winter, +5 AN with well below normal snow here. My area doesn’t do well in strong and super ninos. The strength of the El Niño -PDO, and well AN Atlantic SSTs (especially bad news for the coastal plain) were overlooked. I agree with this to an extent, especially regarding Atlantic SSTs. We're running the end? of a +AMO and we'll see how that goes, but this configuration (generally months on end) seems to not bode well for the coastline 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 One last snowy day before torch . Very possible these are taken up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 While I understand wrt the coast SSTA but I can't figure out why posters dont state the obvious. If you get a well positioned low with deep cold at onset and a NNE wind you will get buried if SST at Boston Light is 49. I mean we've had November snowstorms in coastals. Heck, the December 2003 event had warm SSTs just be virtue of the timing in the season. Keep (at least some) hope alive folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: we did it here last year but I think the last time before that was NEMO for me You had a 30 incher last year in your new location? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Gfs looks even more awful for Friday. Punt that box map to the moon. Not happening. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 33 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: You had a 30 incher last year in your new location? not exactly sure but I know the March storm was right around there I would have to look back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs looks even more awful for Friday. Punt that box map to the moon. Not happening. What do you look at when you interpret a model output? I mean do you know how miserable you on the internet? I don’t think you’re actually that way but man-gfs lines up with the box map actually! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 36 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: You had a 30 incher last year in your new location? Yeah I got 33". But it was gone in like under 3 days so who cares, useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: What do you look at when you interpret a model output? I mean do you know how miserable you on the internet? I don’t think you’re actually that way but man-gfs lines up with the box map actually! Yeah that was kind of funny. GFS is prob 1-2” pike region with maybe a little more south coast. Pretty similar to the BOX map. They might be a bit heavier on the cape than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: What do you look at when you interpret a model output? I mean do you know how miserable you on the internet? I don’t think you’re actually that way but man-gfs lines up with the box map actually! You can be very sure that he doesn’t look at any model output other than a snow map someone posts . Be willing to bet he doesn’t even know where to find them . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 When you get called out by the guru of wx Aka Jerry .. you know it’s time to take a break , perhaps leave the board for good 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: not exactly sure but I know the March storm was right around there I would have to look back Yeah. I had 29.5” I think in the 3/14/23 event. Not bad. But kinda sad it melted so quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: One week of winter ends Sunday for the year, no changes That is a bold statement. Either you are a seer or an idiot. Hmmmm. Did you look at another 384 hour EC op run? She gone? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: You would’ve loved the 28 inches I got in about seven hours in December 20 20. Brian got even more, I think 34 inches in the same time frame 10 miles north of me. it was the most amazing seven hours. Every time I come in from a walk I waited about 15 minutes it went out again with the excuse that I had to shovel the walk. At 6 inches an hour at one point, I really did need to go out twice an hour. I hope you see this sometime soon! Yea that was a great one for you. I forgot, that’s another one that missed here just to my north. The snow hole over CT was well modeled though so it was expected. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: we did it here last year but I think the last time before that was NEMO for me Moving to a weenie spot helps. You’ll have many more in the years to come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 52 minutes ago, weathafella said: While I understand wrt the coast SSTA but I can't figure out why posters dont state the obvious. If you get a well positioned low with deep cold at onset and a NNE wind you will get buried if SST at Boston Light is 49. I mean we've had November snowstorms in coastals. Heck, the December 2003 event had warm SSTs just be virtue of the timing in the season. Keep (at least some) hope alive folks. rolling the dice, I'd rather not see those types of SSTs. this may be anecdotal, or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: rolling the dice, I'd rather not see those types of SSTs. this may be anecdotal, or not Of course! Probably one big reason it snows more in late February vs mid December most years. But my point still stands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 59 minutes ago, weathafella said: While I understand wrt the coast SSTA but I can't figure out why posters dont state the obvious. If you get a well positioned low with deep cold at onset and a NNE wind you will get buried if SST at Boston Light is 49. I mean we've had November snowstorms in coastals. Heck, the December 2003 event had warm SSTs just be virtue of the timing in the season. Keep (at least some) hope alive folks. The SST argument is always really bizarre to me…esp in January. It has very little to do with the longwave pattern. It maybe cost the coastline a bit more snow in the 1/7 event but we’re talking on the margins. The SSTs offshore could’ve been 3C colder and December still would’ve been an abomination. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah. I had 29.5” I think in the 3/14/23 event. Not bad. But kinda sad it melted so quickly That set me into spring. I logged off and went outside with the kids to play in super wet 3”. It was like being in a rainstorm but with snow falling. Jackets, hats, and gloves dripping wet. Interesting enough, Spanks, who lives maybe 4miles on the other side of town but in the valley, never accumulated. Just mangled flakes. But I’m 550’ while he’s maybe 200’ so it’s not a huge elevation difference. It’s one of the most bizarre micro climate events I’ve ever experienced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: That is a bold statement. Either you are a seer or an idiot. Hmmmm. Did you look at another 384 hour EC op run? She gone? He won’t be using the 18z GFS OP run beyond 300h…that’s for sure. Maybe he will post the 00z run if it shows a torch pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: May need to take em up https://x.com/awxnyc/status/1747709218260439063?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg If they're suggesting a 60% chance of greater than 4", I think it follows that they need to alert the public to at least 4" on the upper side. Like a 2-4" event for that area, maybe even 3-6. That would cover most of CT. Whether any guidance hints at this is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro still real paltry on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, weathafella said: What do you look at when you interpret a model output? I mean do you know how miserable you on the internet? I don’t think you’re actually that way but man-gfs lines up with the box map actually! Hmmm, been saying this for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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