January 2024 -- Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think we need a thread dedicated to the explanation of what a pattern change actually means and is.

 

When you go from a roaring PAC jet with no cold, to a medium RNA with cold loading west, that is a change.....independent of snowfall in SNE.

[MJO812]

Winter is far from over

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When you go from a roaring PAC jet with no cold, to a medium RNA with cold loading west, that is a change.....independent of snowfall in SNE.

Yup. 

Quantifying a pattern change goes way beyond the sensible weather in someone's backyard. This is assessed on the large-scale and even at the hemisphere level. We can be in a pattern which elicits above-average temps/wet weather and then see the pattern change and up with above-average temps/dry weather...just because it remained above-average temp wise does not mean there was not a pattern change. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, I’m hoping we still follow the ‘57-58 progression…extremely wet/warm/snowless December….then got our first big snow January 7-8…then up and down pattern for rest of month with a few moderate snow events but also a big benchmark-track rainstorm (I could do without that one)…then an epic Feb/Mar.

 That year also had a stratosphere event with big blocking second half of winter. 

I don't necessarily structure my outlooks around analog method/philosophies, buuuut ... the overnight ensemble means appear to be leaning more Jan 7 as opposed to the Jan 5 .     You might recall yesterday the trend was the other way/we discussed it.  

Then we have these la la range runs occasionally creating black hole quasar storms near the 10-11-12 ...

I think above all else, we're seeing some of the most elevated potential power we've seen in quite some time painted on the longer range model canvas'  As the next cold loading into the continent is very prolific, and down to perhaps 50 N,  meanwhile this maddening warm belt lingers along the ~ San Francisco to VA Beach latitude. Pretty much a baroclinic particle accelerator between it and said 50 N.  ha.  That's probably why anything the model physics generate beyond D10 is exceptionally intense - any cumulus cloud that wonders through ends up being an Andromeda Galaxy. 

sorry babbling

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't necessarily structure my outlooks around analog method/philosophies, buuuut ... the overnight ensemble means appear to be leaning more Jan 7 as opposed to the Jan 5 .     You might recall yesterday the trend was the other way/we discussed it.  

Then we have these la la range runs occasionally creating black hole quasar storms near the 10-11-12 ...

I think above all else, we're seeing some of the most elevated potential power we've seen in quite some time painted on the longer range model canvas'  As the next cold loading into the continent is very prolific, and down to perhaps 50 N,  meanwhile this maddening warm belt lingers along San Francisco to VA Beach latitude. Obviously that baroclinic particle accelerator between it and said 50 N.  ha.  That's probably why anything the model physics generate beyond D10 is exceptionally intense - any cumulus cloud that wonders through ends up being an Andromeda Galaxy. 

sorry babbling

I will be surprised if we don't get really rocked later this season. In the meantime, the "persistence" groupies can have a field day.

Everything appears on track AFAIC.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

I have to say up here in the Vermont ski resorts this is a 1 in 50 year Christmas week. This is what I would call a bankruptcy special. Some smaller mountains are going to have a hard time financially. One of those where one or two might not open in the future. 

https://mountaintimes.info/snowmaking-saved-worst-season-in-decades-for-vermont-ski-resorts/

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

https://mountaintimes.info/snowmaking-saved-worst-season-in-decades-for-vermont-ski-resorts/

Agree, another bad season

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is far from over

Another one that Snowman must have missed lol He normally streamlines that guy's twitter feed via IV.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will be surprised if we don't get really rocked later this season. In the meantime, the "persistence" groupies can have a field day.

Everything appears on track AFAIC.

I have to say...I am extremely confused as to what is meant and being discussed when the term persistence is being thrown around. 

[CoastalWx]

Will this nino peak under 2.0 in the trimonthlies? Seems like it will. Peaked already.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will this nino peak under 2.0 in the trimonthlies? Seems like it will. Peaked already.

no argument from me.  this seemed evident by late August or September frankly. 

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Agree, another bad season

This is the one that reminded me of this year so I searched for info on that year.  I have personal memories of how bad that year was and wanted to see if my memories were correct.  2015-16 was also and awful year personally and weather wise.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Will this nino peak under 2.0 in the trimonthlies? Seems like it will. Peaked already.

I think that is a pretty good bet. The OND value probably comes in at around +1.8C is my guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no argument from me.  this seemed evident by late August or September frankly. 

Totally. I have been pinned to a 1.7 to 1.9 peak ONI range since June.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think that is a pretty good bet. The OND value probably comes in at around +1.8C is my guess.

I haven’t cared much to follow, but seemed like it back in the Fall despite the calls from some.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have to say...I am extremely confused as to what is meant and being discussed when the term persistence is being thrown around. 

They just mean a continuation of no snow in NE.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven’t cared much to follow, but seemed like it back in the Fall despite the calls from some.

It seemed some were hot to trot because of Region 1.2. No matter how many times you tell people that is the most volatile region in terms of SST changes they don't want to listen.  

[UnitedWx]

59 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think we need a thread dedicated to the explanation of what a pattern change actually means and is.

 

That's a good idea. Better do it before some here fire up the 2024 lawn thread

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

That's a good idea. Better do it before some here fire up the 2024 lawn thread

Backedgeapproaching already itching to fire it up.

[Typhoon Tip]

mm  Teleconnection spread looked contentious for mid month, though.  

We have a -EPO early on, and there's ample suggestion among the operational runs ... materializing cold into the Canadian shield as a result of that. It's gonna set up volatility and potential for time as that happens - no question.  But beyond the 5th, the EPO fades and actually flips positive in the index projections from all three ens sources.  If the PNA were to stay positive we'd be okay - but the PNA projection beyond that is negative.  So a +EPO/-PNA for mid month? 

It's a little bit of a head scratch though because the -AO/-NAO phase state is also in the outlooks/agreed upon. 

If these grander scaled telecon work out, it's going to be a merry-go-round badly performing operational model run era.  I imagine the flow would have to be fast - wtf's new there, huh ... - because the Pac is a warm signal over the downstream continent, whilst the -AO/-NAO is not.  So competing larger scale mass-field indicators makes for a mid latitude gradient rich environment with cold over hot. 

Seems the last several years ...one f'n way or the other we end up in mid winter with some kind of rage of velocity issues - so how's that for "persistence" ?    we'll see

 

[FXWX]

29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have to say...I am extremely confused as to what is meant and being discussed when the term persistence is being thrown around. 

That's because it's used differently by different folks.  If the snow drought continues, some call it persistence regardless of large scale pattern changes.  Most mets, including myself, tend to look at the pattern changes, not the outcome when talking about persistence.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

That's because it's used differently by different folks.  If the snow drought continues, some call it persistence regardless of large scale pattern changes.  Most mets, including myself, tend to look at the pattern changes, not the outcome when talking about persistence.

This is why why I thought it should be looked at lol. This makes the most sense and is the more correct method. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  Teleconnection spread looked contentious for mid month, though.  

We have a -EPO early on, and there's ample suggestion among the operational runs ... materializing cold into the Canadian shield as a result of that. It's gonna set up volatility and potential for time as that happens - no question.  But beyond the 5th, the EPO fades and actually flips positive in the index projections from all three ens sources.  If the PNA were to stay positive we'd be okay - but the PNA projection beyond that is negative.  So a +EPO/-PNA for mid month? 

It's a little bit of a head scratch though because the -AO/-NAO phase state is also in the outlooks/agreed upon. 

If these grander scaled telecon work out, it's going to be a merry-go-round badly performing operational model run era.  I imagine the flow would have to be fast - wtf's new there, huh ... - because the Pac is a warm signal over the downstream continent, whilst the -AO/-NAO is not.  So competing larger scale mass-field indicators makes for a mid latitude gradient rich environment with cold over hot. 

Seems the last several years ...one f'n way or the other we end up in mid winter with some kind of rage of velocity issues - so how's that for "persistence" ?    we'll see

 

This fits with the anticipated progression...I have always thought there would be another period of warmth after the early month cool down, while the any strat shenanigans propagate, so that makes sense to me...I think the MJO may also be going Maritime again.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is far from over

Im sorry, I hated to weenie you, but after last nights melt down from you about being close to canceling winter, it was deserved. Especially since you’ve about faced 12 hours later, and are back going the other way because you saw a tweet from Mr. Web.   Very bi polar of you Ant. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

January is a month in a great deal of flux and the second half should be much more wintery.

[dryslot]

There were some calls by some of a super Nino 2.0+ that i recall.

[weatherwiz]

This is brutal...47F at CEF and only 60F at PBI  

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January is a month in a great deal of flux and the second half should be much more wintery.

So we are now at Jan 20th with zero to date and temps 4 to 6 above average and no cause for concern?

[NittanyWx]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  Teleconnection spread looked contentious for mid month, though.  

We have a -EPO early on, and there's ample suggestion among the operational runs ... materializing cold into the Canadian shield as a result of that. It's gonna set up volatility and potential for time as that happens - no question.  But beyond the 5th, the EPO fades and actually flips positive in the index projections from all three ens sources.  If the PNA were to stay positive we'd be okay - but the PNA projection beyond that is negative.  So a +EPO/-PNA for mid month? 

It's a little bit of a head scratch though because the -AO/-NAO phase state is also in the outlooks/agreed upon. 

If these grander scaled telecon work out, it's going to be a merry-go-round badly performing operational model run era.  I imagine the flow would have to be fast - wtf's new there, huh ... - because the Pac is a warm signal over the downstream continent, whilst the -AO/-NAO is not.  So competing larger scale mass-field indicators makes for a mid latitude gradient rich environment with cold over hot. 

Seems the last several years ...one f'n way or the other we end up in mid winter with some kind of rage of velocity issues - so how's that for "persistence" ?    we'll see

 

Just personally I care way more about what's happening upstream right now given lack of carpet and atrocious source region.  Think the 'way out' of this very mild pattern has to be this +EPO/-PNA combo, which likely means locally it's mild outside of a transient period around the 5-7 and cuts off the Pac flow into NW Canada for a minute.    Then when you return to a more +PNA setup given background standing wave pattern you're advecting air that isn't just mild mP that has flooded into NW Canada.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

So we are now at Jan 20th with zero to date and temps 4 to 6 above average and no cause for concern?

I mean, its disappointing that December was warmer than expected and entirely devoid of snowfall, sure.....but its not a huge deal because I didn't expect a good month. And it doesn't change how I feel about latter January and February. No...not at all.