40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Sadly…. above normal snowfall probably off the table now For whom?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I see nothing exciting going forward. Meh that will change as it always does with you. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: For whom?? New Jersey the snowfall mecca 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, wx2fish said: For the strip from your area up to me it could be alot worse. Temps and cutters have sucked, but we are within a couple inches of normal snow year to date now, despite punting Dec. One big event can skew things quite a bit Yea, we are probably a couple of inches below normal....not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 19 at KBOS this morning, second-latest sub-20 reading on record (2007: 1/16, 2002: 2/05, and no one is looking back to the halcyon days of either of those winters!). Should be five straight days below freezing at KBOS, longest such streak since 2021, and more than the entirety of CY 2023. Freeze up some lakes and maybe the Charles, at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: New Jersey the snowfall mecca No way. The only area I am somewhat worried about is coastal SNE....for everyone else normal is well within reach, but even for coastal SNE. People become mired in these negative thought patterns when it isn't snowing much and it impacts their ability to objectively assess how quickly 1-2 large events and a few minors can change things. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 My buddy Paulie A this morning West Seneca NY 28 overnight. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 You all are on it... keep monitoring. 09z serf sagged a little south but pretty beefy. am pretty sure we'll see a band of 5" somewhere between PHL and BDR. also...fwiw.. a band of 1/4-1" snow continues for tomorrow in N CT-S Ma... that may mt be f interest but it is to me..a possible hilly hazard. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way. The only area I am somewhat worried about is coastal SNE....for everyone else normal is well within reach, but even for coastal SNE. People become mired in these negative thought patterns when it isn't snowing much and it impacts their ability to objectively assess how quickly 1-2 large events chances things. Lol I was kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, wdrag said: You all are on it... keep monitoring. 09z serf sagged a little south but pretty beefy. am pretty sure we'll see a band of 5" somewhere between PHL and BDR. also...fwiw.. a band of 1/4-1" snow continues for tomorrow in N CT-S Ma... that may mt be f interest but it is to me..a possible hilly hazard. Hey Walt long time no see. We miss you in New England. Best NWS met ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Lol I was kidding Wasn't directed at you...just to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I see no issue to start February.....EPS and GEPS look great and the GEFS is more of a gradient look that can work in SNE with a cold Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wasn't directed at you...just to you. Ha, at 12 ytd here normal is 19 ytd. Need 15 more this month. 4 so far. You are over normal YTD. My normals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see no issue to start February.....EPS and GEPS look great and the GEFS is more of a gradient look that can work in SNE with a cold Canada. Scooter is gone. Will take a biggie to shake him out of his dark place. Dark Scooter is dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Scooter is gone. Will take a biggie to shake him out of his dark place. Dark Scooter is dark. GEFS could have a latitudinal gradient running through our area, but I see no issue with the GEPS and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 TBH, the GEFS maybe the safest outcome (high floor) from an IMBY standpoint....that looks almost La Nina like. The GEPS and EPS are high stakes.....greater ceiling-lower floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 46 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Sadly…. above normal snowfall probably off the table now It seems pretty clear that's getting more difficult, year after year, anyway. Just hypothetically: suppose in 1950 there is a 50% chance of being above normal snowfall when peering ahead from any given October 15. Now ? -would be perhaps half those chances? 25% ... Certainly it is less, though. At the rate in which CC is occurring already, makes the present 7-10 day scold wave across the CONUS, and any possible winter-storm events connected to it ... seem to be the rarefying state. There's currently an article published over at Phys.org ... quoting among others, Judah Cohen... His contribution is generally on point ... Et al, they describe that the reason N/A is cold is in part because the AO is forced negative by Global Warming. I don't have any issues with that, ...despite some home-grown dissension over the him - I don't really engage in that popular dissent so be that as it may. I don't follow his work. But I will add that it is theoretically sound to connect warm excess terminating into higher latitudes as contributing to increased incidences of higher latitude blocking. Blocking then directs planetary CCB channels into mid latitude, and like water ...finds the pathways of lesser resistance. Which it happens to be that the topographic macro-scaled circumstance of the NE Pacific running into the western N/A continental cordillera, creates a natural channel east of said Continental Divide. So ...in principle... CC can be at least partial in why the U.S. seems to do okay with cold waves while the warming over the integral of the world is actually increasing.. Whenever I read that statement you wrote (bold) in general (seems to be meme in here), the first internal monologue that coalesces out of the white noise of the mind goes something like, "who ever thought that was possible." Obviously, it is possible - sort of. Buuuut, DP/DT (change in possibility over change in time) is not only in decline, year after year, it's likely accelerating in the D' - most objective observations around the world, at minimum make that intuitive. But unless we get one of these CCB channel events to produce big dawgs with more success, it does appear the "maintenance" periods in between bounce back too warm to favor - the seasonal totaling comes in the aggregate. Adding up all the nickle and dimes, over the longer haul, will tend to outweigh the bomb-cyclone trophy totaling. If we lose the nickle and dimers... it gets lower dicey. But ... hell, it may be a fun challenge to try and buck those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Scooter is gone. Will take a biggie to shake him out of his dark place. Dark Scooter is dark. I’m not gone. I feel like I’m one of the few that’s actually being objective. Everybody else has left the ranch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’m not gone. I feel like I’m one of the few that’s actually being objective. Everybody else has left the ranch. Care to comment on my take? Where is the lack objectivity? What do you disagree with?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Care to comment on my take? Where is the lack objectivity? What do you disagree with?? That wasn’t directed at you at all. I just don’t have much confidence in February. It doesn’t mean I expect it to be a crap month, I just don’t know. I don’t really see any signs of blocking at least to start out February. I was hoping to see that, but doesn’t look like it for the time being. So, if the Pacific goes to crap, I don’t think it bodes well for us. Just have to hope that we keep a decent Pacific. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That wasn’t directed at you at all. I just don’t have much confidence in February. It doesn’t mean I expect it to be a crap month, I just don’t know. I don’t really see any signs of blocking at least to start out February. I was hoping to see that, but doesn’t look like it for the time being. So, if the Pacific goes to crap, I don’t think it bodes well for us. Just have to hope that we keep a decent Pacific. I feel like there is some obfuscation and equivocation going on here....everything has gone so shitty for so long that people are conditioned to assume that that will continue, which triggers skepticism of objective analysis of guidance that isn't dire or offers reason for optimism. I agree regarding the blocking, but I see no reason to doubt the favorable Pac look during a time that is climo favored to look like that in a warm ENSO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nam is north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nam is north getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/15/2024 at 8:57 PM, snowman19 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 That may shed some light on the NAO....we'll see what happpens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like there is some obfuscation and equivocation going on here....everything has gone so shitty for so long that people are conditioned to assume that that will continue, which triggers skepticism of objective analysis of guidance that isn't dire or offers reason for optimism. I agree regarding the blocking, but I see no reason to doubt the favorable Pac look during a time that is climo favored to look like that in a warm ENSO. My reasoning is just based on what I see. Trust me I’m not a guy who always goes with persistence. I’m just calling it as I see it. I know very well. February can be good in an El Niño And as I said, I’m not saying it’s a crap month, I’m just a little unsure how it shakes out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 NAM is more amped at 12z....but still fighting the dry air. If we're able to overcome the low level dry air then there could be several inches of fluff because the sounding have the snow growth zone like 200-250mb deep....that's a massive DGZ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, CoastalWx said: My reasoning is just based on what I see. Trust me I’m not a guy who always goes with persistence. I’m just calling it as I see it. I know very well. February can be good in an El Niño And as I said, I’m not saying it’s a crap month, I’m just a little unsure how it shakes out. I could totally see the month just kind of being normal....which ends up as another subpar season, and a lack of blocking would leave less margin for error. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That wasn’t directed at you at all. I just don’t have much confidence in February. It doesn’t mean I expect it to be a crap month, I just don’t know. I don’t really see any signs of blocking at least to start out February. I was hoping to see that, but doesn’t look like it for the time being. So, if the Pacific goes to crap, I don’t think it bodes well for us. Just have to hope that we keep a decent Pacific. A certain K-9 stalks his prey and is ready to pounce! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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