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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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14 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So are we seeing a bit of a change for midweek next week as far as attempts not being as high as the mid-40s? There was talk that some colder air may wedge down and we won't get as warm. Just wondering if the models today trended towards a more wintry solution in the middle of next week. More importantly, are we going to get colder after next week again with more chances of winter weather...... that is the question

The push of that high is TBD at this point. Personally i am kinda hoping next Thursday will end up 45 degrees, we have rooftop work and a crane delivering a new HVAC unit to a customer... so the pattern will probably morph into a cold / snow scenario :lol:

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Looks cold for the next little while. At least you guys have snow on the ground. Wiped clean here and have to start again. Would be nice to get some skating in on the ponds. Fingers crossed for Feb works out better than this month otherwise the rat is nibbling. 

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

The target for this decent 9-15 hour snowfall continue PA-NJ, though the SREF is I80 north.  Debateable but to me it looks like a base snowfall of 2" everywhere and then tops could e narrow swath of 5". NWS graphics attached from 09z/17.

I added OBS to the thread title at 503AM Wed and unfortunately felt the need to add rain/snow mix tag for at least eastern/southern LI and coastal NJ where all snow is not in my mind a 100% guarantee.  This event differs from the Tuesday event (I'll have a snowfall/qpf brief review up in the Tuesday thread late today). Tuesday was pure warm air advection with an 850 MB sw jet as the 5H short wave triesdtilting negative in its Tuesday afternoon mid Atlantic coast passage.

This upcoming event looks a little more negative at 5H, and to me sharper with slower flow aloft as an 850MB low (very weak) tries to form in eastern PA-NJ coast Friday. This one to me has a little better chance at a short period of decent dendritic snow growth. (Tuesdays snow at least for nw NJ was mostly small flake dense packed).

The EPS is well south of the SREF.  I like best snowfall in the weak south or east flow between 8H-7H which is north of the EPS and is what the NWS 09z/17 probabilities for 2 and 4" show.  User the colors bar for the chances of these amounts and click for clarity.  

All solutions need consideration. Another nice snowfall is on the way. 

At 555AM I added: The thought that we could break the record consecutive streak of no daily snowfall 2" or more at CP is definitely a possibility. Depends on snowfall rates and timing the measuring. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like Tuesday night is the next crack at a couple of inches, but we're onto February for anything overly impactful.

EPS looks like it gets us to a better place quicker than the GEFS and GEPS.

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EPS looks like it gets us to a better place quicker than the GEFS and GEPS.

Yea, I'm not too worried about February, just speaking of the balance of January....the pattern should flip back by the end of the month. January has been pretty good in my area, but kind of disappointing on a regional level. I expected the coast to struggle, but I thought that they would have more than this.

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd def keep an eye on Friday south of pike...I'm prob toast up here for more than a feather dusting but south coast peeps could easily get a few inches with a small bump north.

Keeping an eye, but expecting flurries here. Probably one where there's a super sharp cutoff between an inch or two and nada.  But... cue the weenies if one of the Mesos throws out an "interesting" solution today

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Sadly…. 
 

above normal snowfall probably off the table now 

In a year where there’s been some decent blocking, which is likely to reoccur, and now with cold air sources near us I think the chance of a couple of decent snowstorms in February is fairly high. One big and one moderate snowstorm puts a lot of people to normal or above.

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34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm not too worried about February, just speaking of the balance of January....the pattern should flip back by the end of the month. January has been pretty good in my area, but kind of disappointing on a regional level. I expected the coast to struggle, but I thought that they would have more than this.

For the strip from your area up to me it could be alot worse. Temps and cutters have sucked, but we are within a couple inches of normal snow year to date now, despite punting Dec. One big event can skew things quite a bit

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

In a year where there’s been some decent blocking, which is likely to reoccur, and now with cold air sources near us I think the chance of a couple of decent snowstorms in February is fairly high. One big and one moderate snowstorm puts a lot of people to normal or above.

Snow coming Friday and Tuesday and cold, snow OTG and yet we have to read the same old whining every day. Good lord

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