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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Over 40” last year. Wow!  I knew the coast has endured a local minima, but dang, we’ve really been hosed. 

A 40" season sounds like a dream. I'm on track for my third year in the last five under 12".

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think a big dog is really on the table, but you could envision maybe something a little higher than an advisory event only south of the pike. If we get more NAM-esque trends in the future, you could see a path to a healthy warning event. 

Yeah, I agree… I said something about that several hours ago in a post; so much power in that jet core going under Long Island. It’s really like it’s playing with fire. If that thing just giga moves slightly in the north direction or whatever it could mean the difference between, 5 inches up to Hartford in heartbeat 

I’ll tell you … models obsessed with stretching out everything from West east the whole thing is pancaked

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I agree… I said something about that several hours ago in a post; so much power in that jet core going under Long Island. It’s really like it’s playing with fire. If that thing just giga moves slightly in the north direction or whatever it could mean the difference between, 5 inches up to Hartford in heartbeat 

I’ll tell you … models obsessed with stretching out everything from West east the whole thing is pancaked

hell, look at what happened with today's system. trough went from totally strung out to consolidated at the same lead time

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh0_trend.thumb.gif.b0c0db0d2a53de525306aeb35e3f9646.gif

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, well...I average over 60" and haven't sniffed that since 2017-2018.

I average about 50” here. A little over a quarter of that last winter. Same so far this winter. But hey, at least Saturday’s high tide destroyed a 100 year old sea wall in town, flooding a neighborhood. 

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are folks waiting on a big dawg ?

I mean a light to perhaps moderate event for Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York City… it’s already interesting - to me anyway. 

It just seems like people aren’t interested unless it’s maximum dosage. Ha ha.seriously though.

I'll take another 2-4 incher but always looking for a big dog.

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5 hours ago, Hoth said:

A 40" season sounds like a dream. I'm on track for my third year in the last five under 12".

If this season turns out to be a rat that will be 5 out of the last 6 that were either well below average or straight up Ratters. 20-21 was the only good season since 17-18. 

If i get into the 20s this season, i'd consider that to be a win. Sad shit...

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Next Week

High pressure building over the east coast becomes centered due
south of southern New England roughly off the coast of The
Carolinas. This will support deep westerly flow over The
Northeast which will begin a warming trend that will support
high temperatures in the 40s for the first half of next week. No
strong signals for impactful weather next week at this time.

:stein:

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