leo2000 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Interesting that the NavGem still shows a snowstorm coming up the east coast on the 19th-20th period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Someone at Pivotal messing with us by drawing the L off NJ.Has to do with the inverted trough there I imagine . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Interesting that the NavGem still shows a snowstorm coming up the east coast on the 19th-20th period. "when the navy is most north and west there is something wrong with the rest" - a george proverb 1 1 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, Heisy said: Has to do with the inverted trough there I imagine . Right, the main SLP is way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS / NAM / GEM/ RGEM tantalizing close for the biggest snow of the year for the south coast.. verbatim at least a few inches of fluff .. 3-6"+ not too far south .. EURO the furthest South would still get a few fluffy inches probably. Hopefully we get another bump NW or two to get more into a few inches .. Advisory snow would be a win ... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GFS / NAM / GEM/ RGEM tantalizing close for the biggest snow of the year for the south coast.. verbatim at least a few inches of fluff .. 3-6"+ not too far south .. EURO the furthest South would still get a few fluffy inches probably. Hopefully we get another bump NW or two to get more into a few inches .. Advisory snow would be a win ... Right now you’d go 3-6” from Pike south with those Uber high ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right now you’d go 3-6” from Pike south with those Uber high ratios Might not see 3-6 flakes. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 30.5. We glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Might not see 3-6 flakes. Every model has accumulating snow Friday at minimum to 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty much all guidance has that high now...it's just a question of whether it presses down enough at the same time we're getting that low ejecting from the MS and TN valleys. I currently don't expect much of anything in SNE right now out of that setup, but it is something to keep an eye on. NNE could easily get out of the "torch period" unscathed if things break right. SE ridge and cold lower levels…. Kev may get his wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 54 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Interesting that the NavGem still shows a snowstorm coming up the east coast on the 19th-20th period. This is a major development, I’m back in. When the Navy is the most NW that’s a huge red flag and should not be ignored. I figured it was over when we lost the Navy and CMC yesterday, but now we have a shot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, George001 said: SE ridge and cold lower levels…. Kev may get his wish. There’s a ton of posters here that are looking for big ice. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Days n days n days....of ice. We wish 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 yah... uh, that thing at the end of the week is unfortunately ( for deterministic efforts) still sensy. The stream/mechanical interaction between the failed subsumption scenario while still S/W wind max potency running under LI could ..."accidentally" snow 4 or 5" down there. If these players are still tussling tomorrow night in the guidance, it may almost be a now cast effort - these global models corrected to a light to moderate impactor here in the interior with this thing today with only 24 hours to spare. Erstwhile clean whiffs - it's an apple to oranges system comparison but just shows what can happen when the flow is complexly sensitive. Something about this 10 day window of the risk assessing has been unusually like that. interesting... Other than that, ...kind of hard to run a warm blast with two SWFE opportunities out there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 hours ago, Heisy said: Has to do with the inverted trough there I imagine . Ya, it's just funny to see the big red L over the IVT, and no label over the 992 multi-ringed low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 hours ago, George001 said: This is a major development, I’m back in. When the Navy is the most NW that’s a huge red flag and should not be ignored. I figured it was over when we lost the Navy and CMC yesterday, but now we have a shot. It’s a minimal event on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GFS / NAM / GEM/ RGEM tantalizing close for the biggest snow of the year for the south coast.. verbatim at least a few inches of fluff .. 3-6"+ not too far south .. EURO the furthest South would still get a few fluffy inches probably. Hopefully we get another bump NW or two to get more into a few inches .. Advisory snow would be a win ... Speaking of wins, after my 1.5" today, I have surpassed last winter! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Speaking of wins, after my 1.5" today, I have surpassed last winter! Congrats! A few more inches needed for me to pass last season’s 12.5”. What a shameful stretch we’ve been in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I'm 16.5" shy of last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 32 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Congrats! A few more inches needed for me to pass last season’s 12.5”. What a shameful stretch we’ve been in. 45 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Speaking of wins, after my 1.5" today, I have surpassed last winter! 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm 16.5" shy of last season. My total last year was a tad over 12” too, and the 1.5” today brings me to 9” total so far on 1/16. 3 inches to tie, 4 inches for the win. I’m gonna go out on a limb (lol) and say it’s a done deal we beat last year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The 0z NAM certainly is trying for Friday. Tantalizingly close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Big improvements at 500mb, let’s see if the other guidance trends better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: My total last year was a tad over 12” too, and the 1.5” today brings me to 9” total so far on 1/16. 3 inches to tie, 4 inches for the win. I’m gonna go out on a limb (lol) and say it’s a done deal we beat last year. I had 40.5" last season and 24" so far, this year. I should beat it, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ok it’s the clown range NAM but let’s see if other guidance at least partially follows it. Then that system gets more interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had 40.5" last season and 24" so far, this year. I should beat it, too. Oh ya…that’s why I included you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had 40.5" last season and 24" so far, this year. I should beat it, too. Over 40” last year. Wow! I knew the coast has endured a local minima, but dang, we’ve really been hosed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ok it’s the clown range NAM but let’s see if other guidance at least partially follows it. Then that system gets more interesting. What we’re the changes at H5. Did the polar vortex piece separate a little more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ok it’s the clown range NAM but let’s see if other guidance at least partially follows it. Then that system gets more interesting. Are folks waiting on a big dawg ? I mean a light to perhaps moderate event for Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York City… it’s already interesting - to me anyway. It just seems like people aren’t interested unless it’s maximum dosage. Ha ha.seriously though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: What we’re the changes at H5. Did the polar vortex piece separate a little more? Yeah but it was more because of significantly stronger dynamics rounding the trailing PV lobe really helping to pump up heights downstream and also keep the sfc baroclinic zone a bit closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Are folks waiting on a big dawg ? I mean a light to perhaps moderate event for Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York City… it’s already interesting - to me anyway. It just seems like people aren’t interested unless it’s maximum dosage. Ha ha.seriously though. I don’t think a big dog is really on the table, but you could envision maybe something a little higher than an advisory event only south of the pike. If we get more NAM-esque trends in the future, you could see a path to a healthy warning event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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