ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not Will, but this is a different look. Apples to oranges. You have a confluence zone to the north of us vs today which is a s/w well west and nothing really to stop this from coming NW. It could maybe drop advisory snow, but seems like a low ceiling IMO. Yeah we were even discussing how far west the ridge and trough axis was for the storm today and thinking there was a good chance it would come NW which it did. This one doesn't have that look. This one is all about separating the two broken PV pieces and that trend hasn't been favorable the last few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we were even discussing how far west the ridge and trough axis was for the storm today and thinking there was a good chance it would come NW which it did. This one doesn't have that look. This one is all about separating the two broken PV pieces and that trend hasn't been favorable the last few days. That storm went so far NW it caused ptype issues. We need that kind of NW move for the Friday storm which is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 EPS def more robust than 00z which were basically a clean whiff. 12z gets much of CT/RI and SE MA into that 1-2" range. With maybe one more little push, there could be some advisory type snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS def more robust than 00z which were basically a clean whiff. 12z gets much of CT/RI and SE MA into that 1-2" range. With maybe one more little push, there could be some advisory type snows. confluence is solidly weaker and the vort is stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/10/2024 at 12:19 PM, Layman said: yes i did lol with plastic bags over my shoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/10/2024 at 12:22 PM, dryslot said: I can relate, I grew up in the 60's, Feb 69, We were out of school for a week so you would have to know it was real bad snow, Because they never cancelled back then, In fact, If the buses didn't run, You had to still find a away to get to school, A parent or walk. busses had no heat or drop chains but get up you got school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: There is a zero percent chance to forecast whether PV lobes are going to phase or not when making forecasts 2 months out. I'm not saying this to pick on you....but I think people take the idea too seriously that seasonal snowfall forecasts in New England can be skillfully predicted to anything closer than about a 20-30 inch range. I applaud people for trying, but it's so much harder than temperatures because there are like a thousand more variables for snowfall than forecasting temps. This is one of the reason I don't engage in seasonal forecasting for this social media - or anywhere. I wouldn't bother with "snow forecast" ... I find it to be a bit wishy casty If we wanted to focus instead upon the governing aspects that drive temperature anomaly distribution - that can be more readily and correlative -connectable to pattern tendencies; an area where I feel I personally excel ... but I'm not trying to go there ... Point being, if the temperature forecast were BN and the precipitation ( also more connectable but sans any mention of ptype) is AN. Then "odds are" it snows more so that year than if it were AN and BN for those two basic metrics, respectively. Just say AN, N, or BN for precipiation, and because it is AN(BN) in temperature ...etc, and leave it at that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS def more robust than 00z which were basically a clean whiff. 12z gets much of CT/RI and SE MA into that 1-2" range. With maybe one more little push, there could be some advisory type snows. Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here we go Don't overplay the trend here...it's pretty weak sauce still, but a period of light snow is looking more plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 NAVGEORGE 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Don't overplay the trend here...it's pretty weak sauce still, but a period of light snow is looking more plausible. How’s EPS for icestorm/ snow next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How’s EPS for icestorm/ snow next week? Signal is there actually. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Don't overplay the trend here...it's pretty weak sauce still, but a period of light snow is looking more plausible. At least if we can muster an inch or two it’ll be blower powder fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Wonder if we can at least get a James-esque Cape Crusher run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 just for fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, George001 said: That storm went so far NW it caused ptype issues. We need that kind of NW move for the Friday storm which is a long shot. “Not happening” George. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Signal is there actually. Pretty much all guidance has that high now...it's just a question of whether it presses down enough at the same time we're getting that low ejecting from the MS and TN valleys. I currently don't expect much of anything in SNE right now out of that setup, but it is something to keep an eye on. NNE could easily get out of the "torch period" unscathed if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty much all guidance has that high now...it's just a question of whether it presses down enough at the same time we're getting that low ejecting from the MS and TN valleys. I currently don't expect much of anything in SNE right now out of that setup, but it is something to keep an eye on. NNE could easily get out of the "torch period" unscathed if things break right. I noted the strong CAD setup though it does eventually break down at the end of the week at least per ECMWF OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Signal is there actually. Nice! @RUNNAWAYICEBERGwill love this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice! @RUNNAWAYICEBERGwill love this Yup. Today’s little glaze on top of the hard fought 1” of snow was a pleasure to clean up. If we can get more snow and ice and take some trees down along the way while not sacrificing a power outage…I’m all in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: just for fun Watch us get the 979 over Philmont, NY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The Navgeorge is a NW outlier .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 NAM likes Midatlantic and NE on Friday? we have the sref nam and nav - what could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Someone at Pivotal messing with us by drawing the L off NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The Navgeorge is a NW outlier .. correct. I miss the old George though..he'd be pimping that model and slinging around the B word in his posts to the tune of 10+ s 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Thursday night/ Friday snows look like that 30:1 fluid where you can grab 3-6” from like .15-.20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Thursday night/ Friday snows look like that 30:1 fluid where you can grab 3-6” from like .15-.20 30 for you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, CT Rain said: 30 for you It’s a total fluff job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nianticct Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Fluffer Nutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 So are we seeing a bit of a change for midweek next week as far as attempts not being as high as the mid-40s? There was talk that some colder air may wedge down and we won't get as warm. Just wondering if the models today trended towards a more wintry solution in the middle of next week. More importantly, are we going to get colder after next week again with more chances of winter weather...... that is the question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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