40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sure, but whats the mechanism and why should we believe that it is predictable and not just like playing roulette? You win some and lose some....but is there any skill involved? Like if we miss 3 KUs by a hair, was that "skill" or not? OR what if we don't sniff anything big for the next month and then get a 35-40" juggernaut dumped on our head February 22nd? Was the crappy snow forecast a good one, but they got unlucky that a HECS happened late in the season to make verification look bad? The advantage gambler in me always tries to parse out what was skilled vs random noise....and I haven't seen evidence to the former on seasonal snowfall forecasts around here. I think the teleconnection forecast to a degree helps to determine whether performance/snowfall forecast was due to skill or luck....akin to run differential. For instance, last year I was very accurate with all of the teleconnections, but it just didn't snow. in 2014-2015, I totally whiffed on the polar domain, but hit on the snow....last year I was unlucky and in 2014-2015 I was lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: See, I'm viewing it less skillful than that on snowfall...I'm not sure there's much on a seasonal forecast level....I'm talking just snow, not temp forecasts where at least some skill has been demonstrated by good LR forecasters. The best teams in sports can win 70% of the time or so....so there's a clear skill element there. Nobody can forecast seasonal snowfall even close to that level of skill. Yea, snowfall is a lot or luck.....which I know rubs some the wrong way. But just to be clear, this season has been warmer than I thought. Its a combo of that and some bad luck, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Although next week's not looking too good, are things looking like they could change before the end of the month, how about February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the first half of winter was warmer than everyone imagined....including Raindance and probably Omega if he's being truthful...never published anything. Idk I and some others were concerned about the super nino driven pac jet flooding the country with warmth combined with the well AN ssts near the coast. That’s why I said +4 to +5 AN for winter in my forecast with 20-30 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I posted this in the NYC Metro, but since I am on the border with New England, I figured this also applies. Looking ahead at what if left of winter I think my prediction of an average snowfall season with warmer than average temperatures will bust on the snowfall. The warmer than average temperature I went +1 to +2 for winter overall, and I think that will also bust low. It really does look like winter will begin to unravel next week with a sea of warmth that likely takes us to mid-February. At that point the time is fully ticking for the southern northeast ski season. Most resorts, even to the north, have not sniffed being 100% open this year. I think the northern mountains will fair okay in February, but I think from I90 south it will be a tough go. That said it is completely insane to see how the media spins winter these days. Many are being gaslit into believing this is a “cold” winter. The media has been covering how frigid this winter has been, when it has been a week of cold for the vast majority of America. Yes, some record cold for sure, but winter has not been “cold”. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, George001 said: Idk I and some others were concerned about the super nino driven pac jet flooding the country with warmth combined with the well AN ssts near the coast. That’s why I said +4 to +5 AN for winter in my forecast with 20-30 inches of snow. You did post a forecast...that's right. Good call, so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I posted this in the NYC Metro, but since I am on the border with New England, I figured this also applies. Looking ahead at what if left of winter I think my prediction of an average snowfall season with warmer than average temperatures will bust on the snowfall. The warmer than average temperature I went +1 to +2 for winter overall, and I think that will also bust low. It really does look like winter will begin to unravel next week with a sea of warmth that likely takes us to mid-February. At that point the time is fully ticking for the southern northeast ski season. Most resorts, even to the north, have not sniffed being 100% open this year. I think the northern mountains will fair okay in February, but I think from I90 south it will be a tough go. That said it is completely insane to see how the media spins winter these days. Many are being gaslit into believing this is a “cold” winter. The media has been covering how frigid this winter has been, when it has been a week of cold for the vast majority of America. Yes, some record cold for sure, but winter has not been “cold”. I don't see how the warmth goes into mid February unless the Pacific look changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, snowfall is a lot or luck.....which I know rubs some the wrong way. But just to be clear, this season has been warmer than I thought. Its a combo of that and some bad luck, so far. I agree to an extent, but don’t feel that last season and the 1st half of this one are the best examples of this. 2021-2022 is actually a good example, my area got lucky to finish AN snowfall that winter. I still don’t consider that a good winter because it melted so fast, but the fact of the matter is I got more snow than I probably “should” have that winter when taking the overall pattern and temp profiles into account. The pattern was not good and it was a mild winter, we just happened to get a blizzard in the one favorable window sandwiched between a sea of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 “Sea of warmth through mid Feb” where do people find this stuff. Does anyone look at models or is just feelings now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, George001 said: I agree to an extent, but don’t feel that last season and the 1st half of this one are the best examples of this. 2021-2022 is actually a good example, my area got lucky to finish AN snowfall that winter. I still don’t consider that a good winter because it melted so fast, but the fact of the matter is I got more snow than I probably “should” have that winter when taking the overall pattern and temp profiles into account. The pattern was not good and it was a mild winter, we just happened to get a blizzard in the one favorable window sandwiched between a sea of warmth. I didn't say "the best", you did. But if you don't think coming up with essentially nothing out of these 3 patterns doesn't have any luck involved, then I am at a loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: “Sea of warmth through mid Feb” where do people find this stuff. Does anyone look at models or is just feelings now Its just playing the "hot" hand, IMO....no pun intended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't see how the warmth goes into mid February unless the Pacific look changes. I hope I am wrong, but one of the best ski mets I follow was the reason for my change of heart. He things the hostile period will end up being longer than currently modeled. Fingers crossed this isn’t the case, but so far, in my opinion, this ski season started out wonderfully, but since mid-December has been worse than last season for the areas south of I90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I hope I am wrong, but one of the best ski mets I follow was the reason for my change of heart. He things the hostile period will end up being longer than currently modeled. Fingers crossed this isn’t the case, but so far, in my opinion, this ski season started out wonderfully, but since mid-December has been worse than last season for the areas south of I90. Well, like I implied...he is hedging towards guidance changing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 There’s a 2-3 day warmup coming. Even despite that it’s a look that’s could still work for NNE with a well timed high and some CAD. Beyond that there’s strong ensemble support for the cold reloading and this time it’s in our backyard with a ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't say "the best", you did. But if you don't think coming up with essentially nothing out of these 3 patterns doesn't have any luck involved, than I am at a loss. Oh there absolutely is some bad luck involved. The way I look at it is that with every favorable window, you get a shot to roll the dice. Yes, you are correct that the past 3 rolls of the dice not panning out is bad luck (sub 10th percentile luck, you are absolutely right here). I just think the bigger problem is that the pattern has been so bad in the aggregate that we aren’t getting enough rolls of the dice. That’s the bad pattern, 5 weeks of close the blinds and then a 1 week favorable window this Jan. Last March was a 1 week window. Last Dec was 2 (correct me if I’m wrong, I remember getting 2 weeks of well BN temps, just didn’t work out snow wise then which is bad luck, we agree on that). When’s the last team we had an extended window of opportunity? It’s gotta be March 2018 right? Regardless, some of the long range guidance is hinting towards a longer window in Feb. hopefully that holds up and we get a 2012-2013 style comeback, which was one of my “what could go wrong” analogs (warm winter overall, but cashed in on the favorable pattern in the second half of winter). If we can get a 1 month instead of 1 or 2 week favorable window, I think that will go a long way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Even in March 2018, which was an amazing stretch of winter (I don’t remember seeing bare ground until like the 1st week of April), but even during that stretch we rolled snake eyes a couple of times in my area. The last nor’easter was shunted just south, the 1st one hugged the coast and it rained. However, it didn’t matter because the favorable pattern lasted for a month, and we got so many dice rolls that we didn’t need all of them to hit for a great month. Now 2015… that was the perfect combination of 99.9th percentile luck and a 10 week window of opportunity (great pattern in the aggregate). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 that was close to being a great run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 RGEM and ICON are mildly interesting…esp if you’re on the south coast. But would be nice to see one of the non-GGEM globals show more interest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 58 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I posted this in the NYC Metro, but since I am on the border with New England, I figured this also applies. Looking ahead at what if left of winter I think my prediction of an average snowfall season with warmer than average temperatures will bust on the snowfall. The warmer than average temperature I went +1 to +2 for winter overall, and I think that will also bust low. It really does look like winter will begin to unravel next week with a sea of warmth that likely takes us to mid-February. At that point the time is fully ticking for the southern northeast ski season. Most resorts, even to the north, have not sniffed being 100% open this year. I think the northern mountains will fair okay in February, but I think from I90 south it will be a tough go. That said it is completely insane to see how the media spins winter these days. Many are being gaslit into believing this is a “cold” winter. The media has been covering how frigid this winter has been, when it has been a week of cold for the vast majority of America. Yes, some record cold for sure, but winter has not been “cold”. Ya..keep these ideas in the NYC Metro. Thanks. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 58 minutes ago, George001 said: Idk I and some others were concerned about the super nino driven pac jet flooding the country with warmth combined with the well AN ssts near the coast. That’s why I said +4 to +5 AN for winter in my forecast with 20-30 inches of snow. Yeah your forecast was excellent! You may have to become the board long range forecaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ya..keep these ideas in the NYC Metro. Thanks. Just stop would you please. People are entitled to their opinions. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: I posted this in the NYC Metro, but since I am on the border with New England, I figured this also applies. Looking ahead at what if left of winter I think my prediction of an average snowfall season with warmer than average temperatures will bust on the snowfall. The warmer than average temperature I went +1 to +2 for winter overall, and I think that will also bust low. It really does look like winter will begin to unravel next week with a sea of warmth that likely takes us to mid-February. At that point the time is fully ticking for the southern northeast ski season. Most resorts, even to the north, have not sniffed being 100% open this year. I think the northern mountains will fair okay in February, but I think from I90 south it will be a tough go. That said it is completely insane to see how the media spins winter these days. Many are being gaslit into believing this is a “cold” winter. The media has been covering how frigid this winter has been, when it has been a week of cold for the vast majority of America. Yes, some record cold for sure, but winter has not been “cold”. That's what gets clicks so they run with it. Nature of the beast these days. 1st half of met winter has been god-awful-hopefully Feb delivers but if it doesn't it's another 10 day winter like some recent ratters... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Enjoy your IVT friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 A lot of guidance has some weak isentropic lift Thursday night, so it's possible there is some light snow Thursday evening/overnight. Doesn't look like anything plowable, but a coating to an inch of pure blower feathers wouldn't be a total shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12z GFS coming in more NW of 6zSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 19 minutes ago, kdxken said: Just stop would you please. People are entitled to their opinions. Man…you can’t take a joke, unless you’re the guy doing it I guess. When your the guy goofing around, I guess it’s all good? And nobody is seeing what that post stated. So there’s that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Snowy Friday shaping up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Snowy Friday shaping up Yep, in Reggie we trust Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said: Yep, in Reggie we trust Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Very much like today . Burst overnight Thursday and then light to moderate most of Friday . Sets up a frigid weekend before the rainy torch next week wipes it all out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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