January 2024 -- Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Problem is this is not behaving like the 09-10 event. 

I'm just quoting what Cohen said. Clearly I don't expect a -3SD NAO and the oceans/hemisphere are much warmer.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Problem is this is not behaving like the 09-10 event. 

What’s up with the MJO? Everytime I look it’s going like 10x faster than guidance thought it would. 
 

Now into phase 3 by new years. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

What’s up with the MJO? Everytime I look it’s going like 10x faster than guidance thought it would. 
 

Now into phase 3 by new years. 

I honestly haven’t looked in like over a week. 
 

But this season I feel like the MJO/CCKW stuff has had no problem zipping along.  Haven’t seen a good stall in awhile. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly haven’t looked in like over a week. 
 

But this season I feel like the MJO/CCKW stuff has had no problem zipping along.  Haven’t seen a good stall in awhile. 

Probably lends itself to variability.

[ORH_wxman]

Anyways, I’m hoping we still follow the ‘57-58 progression…extremely wet/warm/snowless December….then got our first big snow January 7-8…then up and down pattern for rest of month with a few moderate snow events but also a big benchmark-track rainstorm (I could do without that one)…then an epic Feb/Mar.

 That year also had a stratosphere event with big blocking second half of winter. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s up with the MJO? Everytime I look it’s going like 10x faster than guidance thought it would. 
 

Now into phase 3 by new years. 

Yeah can see a flare up in the western IO coming up. 

 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, I’m hoping we still follow the ‘57-58 progression…extremely wet/warm/snowless December….then got our first big snow January 7-8…then up and down pattern for rest of month with a few moderate snow events but also a big benchmark-track rainstorm (I could do without that one)…then an epic Feb/Mar.

 That year also had a stratosphere event with big blocking second half of winter. 

My mouth waters when I hear '57-58. That was my #1 favorite analog in my winter outlook. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll tell you one change I am going to making next year is to stop using the fall sensible weather match seasons to formulate the winter monthly composites, as it only works for the DM mean forecast composite. The monthly analogs do a much better job conveying my expectations on a month to month basis, which should be expected.

Here is my December analog composite map:

VS the DM composite for December

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I’m not worried about ptype with this, as I believe it hooks up with the mid levels.

The +temp anomalies I’m seeing on guidance in the north has me thinking the real risk is in missing out is that it’s a southern snow storm—>mason dixon on south. That’s what is being hinted at. The Teles will also be primed to phasing during that window—early phase/cut-off,

It'll generate it's own cold 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you one change I am going to making next year is to stop using the fall sensible weather match seasons to formulate the winter monthly composites, as it only works for the DM mean forecast composite. The monthly analogs do much better job conveying my expectations on a month to month basis, which should be expected.

Here is my December analog composite map:

VS the DM composite for December

Reality:

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 Years doing this and you never stop learning.

[moneypitmike]

Was it in November that we had the fairly wide-spread 1-2.5"?   Ooph.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My mouth waters when I hear dongs. That was my #1 favorite body part in freshman anatomy class. 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, I’m hoping we still follow the ‘57-58 progression…extremely wet/warm/snowless December….then got our first big snow January 7-8…then up and down pattern for rest of month with a few moderate snow events but also a big benchmark-track rainstorm (I could do without that one)…then an epic Feb/Mar.

 That year also had a stratosphere event with big blocking second half of winter. 

serious Q'   where did you find this ?

[CoastalWx]

I’m honestly lost when it comes to what to expect.  Sure cold pushes can happen, but that -PNA modeled could be quite cold across the CONUS. I don’t think it will last, but it shows signs of lasting at least a week. 

[apm]

An all-timer, even for the clown show:

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m honestly lost when it comes to what to expect.  Sure cold pushes can happen, but that -PNA modeled could be quite cold across the CONUS. I don’t think it will last, but it snows signs of lasting at least a week. 

Freudian!

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, apm said:

An all-timer, even for the clown show:

Those stem-wound bombs have been recurring in both the GFS and Euro beyond 300 hours. 

( not intending to lecture you here ...)   It's likely a factor of background volatility in a potential saturated hemisphere, more so than having a "real" system.  I think when there is this behavior in the guidance, there might be some value in monitoring the period in question as the time ranges shorten.  The idea there being ... as the time nears and any real entities emerge, they may be doing so in said higher dynamics environment.  Maybe D9 ? ... usually by 7 if the system in question is destined to be a humdinger it start to pin to the charts as run-to-run identity. 

[greenmtnwx]

I have to say up here in the Vermont ski resorts this is a 1 in 50 year Christmas week. This is what I would call a bankruptcy special. Some smaller mountains are going to have a hard time financially. One of those where one or two might not open in the future. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m honestly lost when it comes to what to expect.  Sure cold pushes can happen, but that -PNA modeled could be quite cold across the CONUS. I don’t think it will last, but it snows signs of lasting at least a week. 

Hopefully once the mjo works fully into p3 we get the pna to improve 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully once the mjo works fully into p3 we get the pna to improve 

To me, that just means the cold loads west first and maybe modifies some as it comes east, but its not a death knell. All I want is storms and seasonable temps.

[Damage In Tolland]

Forecast bad outcomes and expect the worst 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To me, that just means the cold loads west first and maybe modifies some as it comes east, but it’s not a death knell. All I want is storms and seasonable temps.

Your location will have chances as long as the -pna doesn’t go crazy. Last few years that feature has trended stronger as we have gotten closer. Hopefully this is different 

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Forecast bad outcomes and expect the worst 

That’s called persistence and those guys have been dead right over a lot of the other pro mets. We all owe the pope an apology lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Your location will have chances as long as the -pna doesn’t go crazy. Last few years that feature has trended stronger as we have gotten closer. Hopefully this is different 

Yes....it could trend stronger, but I don't see it as being prohibitive. It could work as a favorable cool ENSO paradigm to lead into the better el Nino like stretch.

[NorEastermass128]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Forecast bad outcomes and expect worse outcomes than forecasted.  

FYP

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

That’s called persistence and those guys have been dead right over a lot of the other pro mets. We all owe the pope an apology lol

Go to confession and see him and tell him you sinned.

[jbenedet]

37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It'll generate it's own cold 

I mean it looks like a big system. Tearing a hole in the upper atmosphere has no problem yielding sufficient cold in winter, generally. That’s a given. The general tapestry at the surface looks BN in the south; N to slightly AN to the north. Common layout for Southern snowstorms.

[weatherwiz]

I think we need a thread dedicated to the explanation of what a pattern change actually means and is.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

The cold loading into Canada ( particularly evidenced in the 00z GGEM and Euro operational runs) appears classic -EPO related.  Couple of plumes up there to -30 C at 850 mb. 

The fact that it's not really coming south of the border?  that appears related to the collapse of +PNA toward neutral or even going negative.  

The vastness of the PNA allows for less tightly constrained results. What we need to consider when juggling teleconnectors (particularly when they are in flux), is that there can be idiosyncratic anomalies relative to what is the canonical correlated/text book layout.  Some -PNA's appear instrumental in driving 60 F to Chicago and eventually Boston, while others hit a cold wall and a stationary polar boundary aligns just S of that axis.  Mixing/snows on one side, and a tornado event south.  These variances occurring at the same numerical index values. 

The PNA domain is truly huge.  It covers such a vast geometric area that events over the Pacific may ballast the total index into a negative value, while the eastern limb of the domain (over N/A) may actually be structured more like the positive mode.  And vice versa..  Granted comparatively less likely.  

The D8-9-10 of the Euro and GGEM have some syrupy cold right down to the border of Lakes/NE with Canada.  That's awful close for the deep mid range model performance to expect that it's impossible for that to come south.