40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This has about the same upside as the 17th, in my opinion. Look at where the mean on a lot of these ensembles are, that should tell you all you need to know. This thread is quite because I think people are sick of tracking 1-3” glancing failures. Nonsense. Absolutely has a higher ceiling than Tuesday. However, I agree that we need to see a big move soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, WinterWolf said: Lol…has that thing ever gotten anything correct? WTF? It nailed the last event where inland areas got buried, but typically it has a SE bias. It’s usually not correct, but a good rule of thumb is when the Navy is more amped than other guidance, it’s a big red flag. It’s basically the opposite of the Canadian (amped bias). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I don’t think I even know where to find the NavyAlb knows. You only use it when you are having a big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, cuz the modeling is superb at 5-6 days out. Said nobody ever. Come on man. We can only go off what it shows right now. It being 5 days out isn’t a scientific reason it’s going to improve. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Come on man. We can only go off what it shows right now. It being 5 days out isn’t a scientific reason it’s going to improve. Doesn't look good...agreed. But the lead time is a scientific reason to not write a large event off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Come on man. We can only go off what it shows right now. It being 5 days out isn’t a scientific reason it’s going to improve. And it isn’t a scientific reason it wont improve either man. If one thing is off at 5-6 days out, it can have huge implications down the line at this lead time. All the parameters aren’t being modeled absolutely correct at this lead time. That’s the only point. Maybe it never improves…but it wouldn’t surprise me if it did, especially at this advanced lead time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Look at at December 2022...how far did that blizzard just prior to Xmas trend west at like day 5? Crazy shit happens with PV lobe phases and blocks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Come on man. We can only go off what it shows right now. It being 5 days out isn’t a scientific reason it’s going to improve. You aren’t wrong, but the margin of error is fairly large (around 200 miles 5 days out IIRC). If there is large scale agreement that the storm is headed towards Bermuda, that’s outside the margin of error and therefore it makes sense to say we arent getting shit. However, this storm is fairly close. It’s about 100 miles SE of where I’d like it to be, but you and I both are in a good spot for these types of storms. I’d be more worried if I was west and inland for this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, George001 said: You aren’t wrong, but the margin of error is fairly large (around 200 miles 5 days out IIRC). If there is large scale agreement that the storm is headed towards Bermuda, that’s outside the margin of error and therefore it makes sense to say we arent getting shit. However, this storm is fairly close. It’s about 100 miles SE of where I’d like it to be, but you and I both are in a good spot for these types of storms. I’d be more worried if I was west and inland for this setup. No, He is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, WinterWolf said: No, He is wrong. Angry optimism 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Angry optimism ? I’m not angry lol. I’m just not ready to close the book on a potential that’s close to a week away. I mean each system these folks get more and more unhinged. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: ? I’m not angry lol. I’m just not ready to close the book on a potential that’s close to a week away. I mean each system these folks get more and more unhinged. Yeah, I’m the unhinged one, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, George001 said: You aren’t wrong, but the margin of error is fairly large (around 200 miles 5 days out IIRC). If there is large scale agreement that the storm is headed towards Bermuda, that’s outside the margin of error and therefore it makes sense to say we arent getting shit. However, this storm is fairly close. It’s about 100 miles SE of where I’d like it to be, but you and I both are in a good spot for these types of storms. I’d be more worried if I was west and inland for this setup. Going to need to see a move in the next few runs here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, I’m the unhinged one, for sure. When you’re calling for a nonevent at a week out…that’s pretty unhinged in the weather world. Don’t look at the GFS Brett, it just trended a lot better for the system 24 hrs from now…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gfs even worse for the 20th. And it’s the “on hour” runs, not off, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs even worse for the 20th. And it’s the “on hour” runs, not off, lol. . But it’s still 5 days away!! Ifs congealing way to far east, it’s just a total non starter in that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs even worse for the 20th. And it’s the “on hour” runs, not off, lol. Its always something....system looked better, but the ridge out west collapsed faster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: . But it’s still 5 days away!! Ifs congealing way to far east, it’s just a total non starter in that position. Yup. It’s over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Let it go. It’ll be back in about 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, WeatherX said: Let it go. It’ll be back in about 72 hours . Kind of like the system that begins 24 hrs from now…this was a whiff by the GFS right up to…..NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Kind of like the system that begins 24 hrs from now…this was a whiff by the GFS right up to…..NOW. Would fit the pattern. Nothing scientific but just the gut feel. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 You can tell who is teetering just by the posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I’m not saying it can’t come back to something decent but it looks like we will waste another high end potential pattern with a low impact event. That’s the tougher pill to take. It’s not just a missed opportunity but a missed high end one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m not saying it can’t come back to something decent but it looks like we will waste another high end potential pattern with a low impact event. Proof positive that high end events don’t grow on trees. Lots of things need to come together just right…and that isn’t all that common. Many got spoiled, and now are having a tough time with things… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, WinterWolf said: Proof positive that high end events don’t grow on trees. Lots of things need to come together just right…and that isn’t all that common. Exactly my point…so when the ingredients are there and we miss, it sucks more than usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Exactly my point…so when the ingredients are there and we miss, it sucks more than usual. Ya it does…but we haven’t missed anything yet. 6 days from now we’ll be able to say we missed. Or…. I’ll gladly take a moderate event on the 20th. Sure the pattern and pieces would indicate something more, but as we said they’re tougher to come by. But for me, any snow is good snow. So bring the moderate event…And we add to the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We obviously want to get a touchdown on the board, not a FG. Let's finish the drive on Tuesday by getting on the board, get the ball back with cold in the wake of that one, and try to get in the end zone with something good Friday. I'm not even really paying attention to Friday yet (not saying others need to be like me) given how much guidance has struggled and how close the pattern looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We obviously want to get a touchdown on the board, not a FG. Let's finish the drive on Tuesday by getting on the board, get the ball back with cold in the wake of that one, and try to get in the end zone with something good Friday. I'm not even really paying attention to Friday yet (not saying others need to be like me) given how much guidance has struggled and how close the pattern looks. Nice post. I Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m not saying it can’t come back to something decent but it looks like we will waste another high end potential pattern with a low impact event. That’s the tougher pill to take. It’s not just a missed opportunity but a missed high end one. A miss, Is a miss, No matter what the ceiling is, And right now, Were running out of get out of jail free cards as were hitting mid January, That is the benchmark to gauge a climo avg winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I was optimistic about this period but no longer. At best looking at maybe an inch or two a few times. With how warm winters have been don't know how many better chances we will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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