January 2024 -- Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is a good trend...just saw

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Usually, but it can be the final solution....given the range, probably not.

Of course it’s never a guarantee, but that’s not the final solution…no way. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Any trend?

Wolfie might be right, just noting the solution verbatim. I’ll be interested to see what EPS does since my guess is that we’d have some tasty members. The initial s/w that spawns cyclogenesis looked better to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Of course it’s never a guarantee, but that’s not the final solution…no way. 

All I am saying is inverted troughs to happen, but I agree this is very unlikely to be the final solution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Wolfie might be right, just noting the solution verbatim. I’ll be interested to see what EPS does since my guess is that we’d have some tasty members. The initial s/w that spawns cyclogenesis looked better to me.

OP is def. better. Agree.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I am saying is inverted troughs to happen, but I agree this is very unlikely to be the final solution.

Oh I know what you meant, and certainly agree with you 100%.  We on the same page. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

OT but a plane crashed a few miles from our house in an area we frequently hike.  No survivors.  

We were glued to the emergency scanner for an hour.  I think we heard the same plane fly over our house.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

They are on the Fruad Five list for a reason lol...but like everything else on this list, they are an actual phenomenon. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

OT but a plane crashed a few miles from our house in an area we frequently hike.  No survivors.  

We were glued to the emergency scanner for an hour.  I think we heard the same plane fly over our house.  

Yikes...commercial?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yikes...commercial?

Private 2 engine out of Westfield according to scanner. 
We almost never had emergency vehicles go up our road and it was like a convoy today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Tell me this. isn't a trend towards less compression...

 

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tell me this. isn't a trend towards less compression...

 

Not sure if that's a good thing or not

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not sure if that's a good thing or not

More that it could portend a good thing...especially if EPS follows suite.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not sure if that's a good thing or not

Less compression means a little less speed, and more time to congeal and bomb for SNE, instead of OTS, or for Nova Scotia. 

[hammerz_nailz]

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Private 2 engine out of Westfield according to scanner. 
We almost never had emergency vehicles go up our road and it was like a convoy today.

Weird track

[40/70 Benchmark]

Flow looks a hair more relaxed early on with respect to 12z EPS, but probably not a enough to be a huge difference.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Flow looks a hair more relaxed early on with respect to 12z EPS, but probably not an enough to be a huge difference.

Outcome was a bit better than 6z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can see how a continuation of this trend would lead to a marriage over Long Island.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, hammerz_nailz said:

Weird track

Yeah, I’m wondering if a rouge gust of wind caught them? Right around when they went down it was very windy here with hundreds of pinecones raining down at my house.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like the GEFS in the sense that most of the trend is late in the game....IE east of the cape, rather than south of SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like the GEFS in the sense that most of the trend is late in the game....IE east of the cape, rather than south of SNE.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like the GEFS in the sense that most of the trend is late in the game....IE east of the cape, rather than south of SNE.

Where would development be ideally?  Off the Delmarva? 

[ORH_wxman]

@CoastalWx, check out late in the EPS (GEFS also have the same look)….that’s 2015-ish? We’ll see if that look continues as we get closer

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Where would development be ideally?  Off the Delmarva? 

South of LI....maybe near Jersey shore.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx, check out late in the EPS (GEFS also have the same look)….that’s 2015-ish? We’ll see if that look continues as we get closer

 

LOL I joked about that yesterday when it hinted that.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL I joked about that yesterday when it hinted that.

We haven’t seen a low set up way down there SW of the Aleutians in eons. It was prob 2015 the last time we had one setup there for more than just a fleeting moment. Nice to see it on guidance….that’s about as good as a pacific pattern as we can get. Maybe shift the ridge axis a couple hundred miles east if we’re nitpicking, but otherwise it’s what we’ll want to see showing up as we move forward. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thank goodness, because it’s tiring relying on the underperforming atlantic. 

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx, check out late in the EPS (GEFS also have the same look)….that’s 2015-ish? We’ll see if that look continues as we get closer

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like the GEFS in the sense that most of the trend is late in the game....IE east of the cape, rather than south of SNE.

WTTTW. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

I really thought the next panel after this one would show a consolidated bomb off Cape May: