BombsAway1288 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Incredible warmth has been the story since 12/1 this winter, along with incredible amounts of rain. Classic strong El Niño winter and more warmth just a few days away. Wrong. It’s gonna be way below normal next week and even after that the warmth might but muted 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Looks like it, I’m not on the February is going to be great because El Nino’s are backload. Even this week’s cold has trended warmer. I wouldn’t have expected you saying that. You really know how to spin things for your agenda. I’ll give you last year, you were correct that it was gonna be warm and snowless even though you would have predicted that no matter what but to just shit on next weeks cold and bit even acknowledge the fact that it looks like the pacific is changing just truly shows what you’re trying to do. No changes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS wasn’t as enthused with 1/19-20 on 18z run but still really close. Verbatim like a 4-8” type event. What you want to look for in that event in future runs is the PV lobe being stretched far to the southwest so that it has room to amplify along the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Boston is 4.6 ave for January not including today. Last January was +8.8; thru yesterday we're running +4.0, though today will kick that up by about 0.7°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS wasn’t as enthused with 1/19-20 on 18z run but still really close. Verbatim like a 4-8” type event. What you want to look for in that event in future runs is the PV lobe being stretched far to the southwest so that it has room to amplify along the coast. Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: This forum has become something else when people who get 18” of snow are bitching and moaning incessantly within a week of that event. It’s the same problem posters all the time. Whining babies. The guy gets 18 inches 6 days ago, and he says F-. That’s just Unreal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: That stadium will be full 100% no matter what the call is. Been there. Those are hearty tough people and they only have the Bills and snow. Thats it. They are all in! If they could get to the place, and if they wouldn't care whether they could see the field. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 23. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 25. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 14. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow before 10am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 10am and 4pm. High near 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS wasn’t as enthused with 1/19-20 on 18z run but still really close. Verbatim like a 4-8” type event. What you want to look for in that event in future runs is the PV lobe being stretched far to the southwest so that it has room to amplify along the coast. Where do we normally want the PV? I feel like it gives us nothing but headaches when it’s trap underneath the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s the same problem posters all the time. Whining babies. The guy gets 18 inches 6 days ago, and he says F-. That’s just Unreal. And then somebody weenies me for stating the truth. An 18” snowstorm less than a week ago Ken, and the winter on Jan 13th is an F-? So you agree with his idea of an F- after a crushing event 5 days prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Where do we normally want the PV? I feel like it gives us nothing but headaches when it’s trap underneath the block PV is actually getting a bit stretched. One piece breaks off and becomes a 50/50 low and the other gets pulled back SW and becomes a key player for 1/19-20. But yeah, you don’t want it over us or you get suppression. Ideally, you have it sitting over the 50/50 position or just west of it and waiting to block a cutter shortwave which turns it into a monster snowstorm coastal. In order to get the PV stuck in that position, usually a -NAO block is helpful which is why we often like them. But you obviously can have too much of a good thing sometimes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: PV is actually getting a bit stretched. One piece breaks off and becomes a 50/50 low and the other gets pulled back SW and becomes a key player for 1/19-20. But yeah, you don’t want it over us or you get suppression. Ideally, you have it sitting over the 50/50 position or just west of it and waiting to block a cutter shortwave which turns it into a monster snowstorm coastal. In order to get the PV stuck in that position, usually a -NAO block is helpful which is why we often like them. But you obviously can have too much of a good thing sometimes. Thanks. What is stopping this from moving into that 50/50 position? The strength of the west base block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 So the National Fairy League postponed the Bills until Monday due to weather.And as a Bills fan I am downright pissedSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: PV is actually getting a bit stretched. One piece breaks off and becomes a 50/50 low and the other gets pulled back SW and becomes a key player for 1/19-20. But yeah, you don’t want it over us or you get suppression. Ideally, you have it sitting over the 50/50 position or just west of it and waiting to block a cutter shortwave which turns it into a monster snowstorm coastal. In order to get the PV stuck in that position, usually a -NAO block is helpful which is why we often like them. But you obviously can have too much of a good thing sometimes. Thanks for the explanation. It’s all a very delicate balancing act… The second piece of the PV lobe you’re speaking of Will, we want that piece to be SW of the 50/50 lobe? Is that what you’re saying? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 We're getting the old placeholder anchor low extending west, though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We're getting the old placeholder anchor low extending west, though Is this a good thing or not? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I'ya I'm just gonna tutor y'all 'bout how this subsume shit works. The X coordinate S/W translation speed ( not the same as the wind flowing through the medium - whole 'nother headache), needs to be as close to the same translation speed as the Y coordinate of the severing SPV fragment/N/stream tucking into the back side. Those deltas need to = 1 as closely as possible... Nothing in the atmosphere is ever perfect... but ...get that up 70 .. 80% and you turn a pedestrian system into bombogenesis potential. All you have to do is find the best perceived center mass of the N/stream, and click a couple intervals, and measure the N-->S distance/time ... that equals your dy/dt. Do the same for the S/stream dx/dt, or W-->E. The ratio of these in this case is about 1.5 . that's just too fast in the southern component ... But just looking at the synoptics? yeah, you can see how the SPV/N/stream collapses in but it's chasing and not actually 'catching' the S/W wave space - it escapes east as a shearing stretched out weaker system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Is this a good thing or not? Lol. It’s that old extended range faux inverted trough look. The system is “feeling” the trailing H5 vort to the west cuasing some pressure falls ahead of it and that “kinked” look to the isobars. A lot of times we see that trend toward a closed sfc cyclone closer to the coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GEFS has actually been consistently more amplified, regardless of the OP’s movement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Is this a good thing or not? Lol. haha... sorry it was an inside comment to Will - he knows. Basically...the physics in the model "sense" that there should a low there - produce one incompletely, is what happening. If this was more proficiently phasing, that would probably be the "real" low, and it would be a much bigger ordeal there. It's good in the sense that it's possible still? But I'm not sure we are going to slow things down enough... the 12z guidance did seem to slow a fraction and almost immediately we saw a better performance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 26 minutes ago, tamarack said: If they could get to the place, and if they wouldn't care whether they could see the field. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 23. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 25. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 14. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow before 10am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 10am and 4pm. High near 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80% It will keep going on some level daily Until the lake feeezes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s that old extended range faux inverted trough look. The system is “feeling” the trailing H5 vort to the west cuasing some pressure falls ahead of it and that “kinked” look to the isobars. A lot of times we see that trend toward a closed sfc cyclone closer to the coast. ah, you beat me to it, Brian - yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s that old extended range faux inverted trough look. The system is “feeling” the trailing H5 vort to the west cuasing some pressure falls ahead of it and that “kinked” look to the isobars. A lot of times we see that trend toward a closed sfc cyclone closer to the coast. I was thinking to myself, that looks like an inverted trough there…but didn’t know if that was a good sign or not. Thanks for the info. Yes, sometimes it seems like when you see that look, it’s the modeling not quite knowing what to do with the energies..and then that morphs as later runs figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: ah, you beat me to it, Brian - yup Sorry man. Wasn’t trying to cut into your convo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sorry man. Wasn’t trying to cut into your convo. oh I don't care who says it first. ha. Anyway, the 18z GEFs just went some 10 to as much as 12 dm deeper with the non-hydrostatic height depth leaving the M/A with the 20th compared to the 12z ... I'd call that a pretty significant adjustment considering the entire synoptic manifold is involved here - the impetus here being the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Huge change in the member depiction, too... There's likely some members in there that are more like the 12z still - and are overcoming the speed of the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh I don't care who says it first. ha. Anyway, the 18z GEFs just went some 10 to as much as 12 dm deeper with the non-hydrostatic height depth leaving the M/A with the 20th compared to the 12z ... I'd call that a pretty significant adjustment considering the entire synoptic manifold is involved here - the impetus here being the trend That looks pretty nice/potent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Thanks. What is stopping this from moving into that 50/50 position? The strength of the west base block? It actually does move into that position by the PV splitting…see the EPS image below….ideally that piece that goes southwest trends a bit further southwest to give us more room to amplify…I think that’s important, especially further south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Woof 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It actually does move into that position by the PV splitting…see the EPS image below….ideally that piece that goes southwest trends a bit further southwest to give us more room to amplify…I think that’s important, especially further south. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s the same problem posters all the time. Whining babies. The guy gets 18 inches 6 days ago, and he says F-. That’s just Unreal. You conveniently forgot to mention the 2 warm soaking rainstorms that wiped out all of the snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: You conveniently forgot to mention the 2 warm soaking rainstorms that wiped out all of the snow.... I didnt include those, because we knew those were coming before the snow even fell, and the fact remains you scored huge…more than everybody else did. Had you received nothing last Sunday, or scored an inch or two, I could understand the F- to date. But that’s not what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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