January 2024 -- Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Or any backyard at this point. 

Well, its still December and nothing has changed yet.

[kdxken]

Relax Major Arctic outbreak in the making.

Get your firewood now and lots of it!!!

 

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Relax Major Arctic outbreak in the making.

Get your firewood now and lots of it!!!

 

Never mind...

 

 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Long time lurker (and very occasional poster) in this sub. I know the ensembles don't equal the reality of what snow lovers want, but isn't the pattern offered by the 12z EPS for week 2 typically a decent one for New England, objectively speaking?

Neutralish EPO with a -PNA, -AO, -NAO, no semblance of well AN h5 heights nearby and 850 mb temp anomalies near to slightly above normal with the 850 mb 0C line in the vicinity of the Delmarva.

It's not a cold pattern, but the -PNA would provide a steady stream of shortwaves and the -NAO/-AO could modulate the storm track in a beneficial way and/or promote coastal re-development of primary shortwaves tracking inland.

Wasn't necessarily expecting that sort of look to be in play for this winter, but from my perspective (NWS Chicago forecaster), that projected pattern is typically a productive one here and have also been associated with snowy patterns into New England. Thinking 2010-11, temporarily in early Feb 2015, and mid-late January into February 2021 and 2022 as some noteworthy examples.

I'd go as far as saying that the projected EPS pattern doesn't look like a bad one even down into the NYC area (I'm originally from Queens).


 

Thanks for coming in and posting in our funhouse!  You add value.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure about the 12 Z but the 0Z last night… The GGEM and euro models both had plumes of -30+ C at 850 mb as far south as nearly lake superior at one time or another in those operational runs.

I figured it was a nod to the negative EPO didn’t really think about it beyond that because while probably true about cold loading the details of where and when precise spatial layouts and all that is obviously unknown at this range. But yeah, get that to turn the corner and dip down and there you go.

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

That has a better chance of verifying than this from 0z:

[cleetussnow]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think this post says a lot.. especially the last sentence . The majority of posters here , myself included, are in doubt of the pattern change and models being wrong once again. It’s just hard to buy in when they’ve basically been wrong for several years running.  The whites of the eyes need to be seen . If and when that happens .. that’s what most people need to see.

Solidly in this camp myself.  I feel like the models in the LR are just artwork.  The only reason they might verify is because it happens to be winter.  Theres a bunch of artwork in this very thread and I reposted one for illustrative purposes.  But right now we got nothing else to look at.  Its like not having a girlfriend so you rifle through the latest Playboy (pornhub for you youngins).  But Ms. January 2015 ain’t walking through that door.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That has a better chance of verifying than this from 0z:

It might even be the same system in principal… It’s a similar time range, so it fits in the Rossby argument. 

The telecon spread isn’t in favor of a coastal storm during that timeframe but then again, the telecon spread could also change between now and then. 

But yeah, if you’re going with the tenor of the season, and that whole Stockholm syndrome of not being able to visualize any other reality ha ha ha then sure.   

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That has a better chance of verifying than this from 0z:

Lol..the cutter is 24 hrs deeper into the future…so maybe not?  But there’s always an easier shot for a cutter, than a coastal in any given pattern due to the spatial differences between the two. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Solidly in this camp myself.  I feel like the models in the LR are just artwork.  The only reason they might verify is because it happens to be winter.  Theres a bunch of artwork in this very thread and I reposted one for illustrative purposes.  But right now we got nothing else to look at.  Its like not having a girlfriend so you rifle through the latest Playboy (pornhub for you youngins).  But Ms. January 2015 ain’t walking through that door.

As long as you guys are clear and square on the fact that the models can be right about the pattern change, and we may still not get snow. 

In other words, snow does not adjudicate whether the pattern change forecast’ was successful or not. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As long as you guys are clear and square on the fact that the models can be right about the pattern change, and we may still not get snow. 

In other words, snow does not adjudicate whether the pattern change forecast’ was successful or not. 

I don’t think they get that though… 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As long as you guys are clear and square on the fact that the models can be right about the pattern change, and we may still not get snow. 

In other words, snow does not adjudicate whether the pattern change forecast’ was successful or not. 

I actually just had this convo with my son.  He has a snow removal contract side gig with his friends and he wanted to know when its going to get cold.  I said give it a couple weeks but cold does not equal snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Solidly in this camp myself.  I feel like the models in the LR are just artwork.  The only reason they might verify is because it happens to be winter.  Theres a bunch of artwork in this very thread and I reposted one for illustrative purposes.  But right now we got nothing else to look at.  Its like not having a girlfriend so you rifle through the latest Playboy (pornhub for you youngins).  But Ms. January 2015 ain’t walking through that door.

There’s a large majority here on this board in this camp. They may be silent or they may post maps to the contrary.. but rest assured .. there is a lot of doubt this winter from the board. The hope is the models actually will be correct for once . 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As long as you guys are clear and square on the fact that the models can be right about the pattern change, and we may still not get snow. 

In other words, snow does not adjudicate whether the pattern change forecast’ was successful or not. 

Violently disagree. If the modeled change happens as forecast.. snow would follow . It goes hand in hand . You don’t change the pattern and not snow 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Violently disagree. If the modeled change happens as forecast.. snow would follow . It goes hand in hand . You don’t change the pattern and not snow 

Sometimes ya do Kevin.  And that’s a fact. Great patterns don’t guarantee snow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Sometimes ya do Kevin.  And that’s a fact. Great latter a don’t guarantee snow. 

Do not agree 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do not agree 

Well that’s fine.  But sometimes it doesn’t snow in a good pattern.  And sometimes it snows in bad patterns. 

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that’s fine.  But sometimes it doesn’t snow in a good pattern.  And sometimes it snows in bad patterns. 

For me I want to be in the midst of a cold pattern, then any storms in the models are more credible.  The cold will bolster my confidence.  

[CoastalWx]

Lots of voodoo logic going on here.  

[George001]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

For at least 3 weeks? That's an awful long time. 

It’s been warm for a month straight, it shouldn’t be too much to ask for just a few weeks of cold weather but apparently it is.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

For me I want to be in the midst of a cold pattern, then any storms in the models are more credible.  The cold will bolster my confidence.  

I can Understand that.  But a pattern change to better/good does not guarantee snow in yours, my or anybody’s backyard. 
 

Sure, I’d much rather have a good pattern because it certainly stacks the deck in our favor, but one does Not necessarily follow the other. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Kevin … isn’t it past your bedtime ?

[78Blizzard]

As we have seen this month, "flood warnings" are in and "winter storm warnings" are out.  Let's turn that around next month.  At this point I'll even take a WSW that flops into a 2-3" meh just to see some snow on the ground.  Raking twigs and leaves today from last week's storm was no fun.  Never have I raked like this in late December.  Just a few inches of snow would have hid all that crap, at least until the next rainer.   

[George001]

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t think they get that though… 

I’ll give credit for the pattern change verifying if Jan finishes BN temps, regardless of snow.

[cleetussnow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of voodoo logic going on here.  

Wheres the voodoo in ‘I believe it when I see it?’

 

Here is a couple of pictures of bigfoot:

 

this one is my personal fav:

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Wheres the voodoo in ‘I believe it when I see it?’

 

Here is a couple of pictures of bigfoot:

 

this one is my personal fav:

Pretty sure he was honoring Kevin

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ll give credit for the pattern change verifying if Jan finishes BN temps, regardless of snow.

Would still be a false assessment approach 

[Typhoon Tip]

… Basically, the normally inconsolable crowd in here is downright apoplectic, and cannot be penetrated with any form of rational thinking 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty sure he was honoring Kevin

Show the snow or show the door on way out. 

[weathafella]

This thread consist of a lack of logical thinking.  Like best to assume guidance is wrong so people aren’t disappointed.  Does everyone have an emotional age of 9?