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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

So the big question hanging in the room is, will the block end up suppressing this into a mid atlantic storm? Reminds me a bit of the blizzard in 2016 ( I think that was the year)

The key is what dendrite said above…you get a piece of the PV phasing into it and that typically helps bring it north some. 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The key is what dendrite said above…you get a piece of the PV phasing into it and that typically helps bring it north some. 

Hopefully for once we can have something work in our favor when it comes to the PV chunk and phasing....it's been a rough 2 seasons down here

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John's ability to assess the most minute details at H5 is second to none....like the split in the SW out west that ruined the Tuesday deal. 

I see 3 issues Tuesday. One is the s/w at hr 66 that’s flying off the coast here and sort of stealing some baroclinic energy.  Second is the main s/w trough that has a s/w off the SE coast at hr 84 and the stronger one to the NW. it just looks like they compete and can’t congeal in time for a bigger deal. But a ribbon of fronto is not out of the question. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see 3 issues Tuesday. One is the s/w at hr 66 that’s flying off the coast here and sort of stealing some baroclinic energy.  Second is the main s/w trough that has a s/w off the SE coast at hr 84 and the stronger one to the NW. it just looks like they compete and can’t congeal in time for a bigger deal. But a ribbon of fronto is not out of the question. 

This was never supposed to be big. It’s going to be a lot 2-4/3-6 deals here on out 

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John's ability to assess the most minute details at H5 is second to none....like the split in the SW out west that ruined the Tuesday deal. 

Flow bifurcation FTL? Imagine him being a TV met trying to explain this stuff on air lol

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Everyone prepared for the big warmup for a few days around 1/25 give or take a few days?

Hopefully we can avoid any major torching. GFS kind of shows how. We get some days in the 40a but no warm rainstorms. Then pattern reload out west toward month-end which makes sense since all the ensembles show that too as MJO goes back around to phase 6/7

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we can avoid any major torching. GFS kind of shows how. We get some days in the 40a but no warm rainstorms. Then pattern reload out west toward month-end which makes sense since all the ensembles show that too as MJO goes back around to phase 6/7

The post relaxation period looks like a great pattern and hopefully more durable than the upcoming colder period.  MJO suggests it’s possible.

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37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s tongue in cheek…his threads are just notorious for sne snows not materializing. 

think you're mistaking me with someone else there.   just nailed the one last week from 7 days out - hello.... 

secondly?  i don't care about people's paranoia.  lol.  seriously I don't.  i start threads for interesting periods/event - which in the winter ... just about anything qualifies as better than sitting around waiting in 40 F dim sloped sun over bare earth. 

i will add this ... there's some memory fabrication going on, most likely.  people need to appease this addiction to seeing big blue gpf bombs on illustrated guidance and so, if that doesn't materialize in the guidance after a thread is posted ...  there's this associated of that discomfort to the thread poster - which is as ludicrous and unfair as what ya'll do to your selves waiting on d-drip in the first place.  i don't ever own any responsibility to that.  plus, it is also pretty clear that the content of the thread starters are seldom read with comprehension, because there are often plenty of qualifiers in that should/could be used to temper confidence and or impact expectations. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

think you're mistaking me with someone else there.   just nailed the one last week from 7 days out - hello.... 

secondly?  i don't care about people's paranoia.  lol.  seriously I don't.  i start threads for interesting periods/event - which in the winter ... just about anything qualifies as better than sitting around waiting in 40 F dim sloped sun over bare earth. 

i will add this ... there's some memory fabrication going on, most likely.  people need to appease this addiction to seeing big blue gpf bombs on illustrated guidance and so if that doesn't materialize in the guidance after a thread is posted ...  don't ever own any responsibility to that.  plus, it is also pretty clear that the content of the thread starters are seldom read with comprehension, because there are often plenty of qualifiers in that should/could be used to temper confidence and or impact expectations. 

No it’s you but i’m just joshing. It’s all voodoo. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

think you're mistaking me with someone else there.   just nailed the one last week from 7 days out - hello.... 

secondly?  i don't care about people's paranoia.  lol.  seriously I don't.  i start threads for interesting periods/event - which in the winter ... just about anything qualifies as better than sitting around waiting in 40 F dim sloped sun over bare earth. 

i will add this ... there's some memory fabrication going on, most likely.  people need to appease this addiction to seeing big blue gpf bombs on illustrated guidance and so, if that doesn't materialize in the guidance after a thread is posted ...  there's this associated of that discomfort to the thread poster - which is as ludicrous and unfair as what ya'll do to your selves waiting on d-drip in the first place.  i don't ever own any responsibility to that.  plus, it is also pretty clear that the content of the thread starters are seldom read with comprehension, because there are often plenty of qualifiers in that should/could be used to temper confidence and or impact expectations. 

He was being facetious just yanking your chain.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No it’s you but i’m just joshing. It’s all voodoo. 

 

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

He was being facetious just yanking your chain.

He is batting below the Mendoza line when he long leads. Way too early many times. Great analysis of model changes though. He has hit some home runs but as we know last 2 years there have been lots of strikeouts. Nothing wrong with adding thoughts to pattern threads but 7 day leads on storm threats ,meh wasted space mostly. 

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we can avoid any major torching. GFS kind of shows how. We get some days in the 40a but no warm rainstorms. Then pattern reload out west toward month-end which makes sense since all the ensembles show that too as MJO goes back around to phase 6/7

How torchy are we talking? It's 60° today in mid-January

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