Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s a bold call…not sure I’d have the guts to go the over on a 15-day prog of 0F. based on the above image....I am taking the over. We can check back in on the 27th for verification. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: based on the above image....I am taking the over. We can check back in on the 27th for verification. Still glad I got the furnace guy to come today given the temps next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: based on the above image....I am taking the over. We can check back in on the 27th for verification. Whooosh. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, ariof said: Still glad I got the furnace guy to come today given the temps next week Homeserve has a great HVAC protection plan ..well worth the cost! Emergency Home Repair Plans by HomeServe | HomeServe USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Rather nice day out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Chicago blizzard fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, ariof said: Still glad I got the furnace guy to come today given the temps next week I need more firewood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Chicago blizzard fail? Too early to make that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro has next weekends storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro def looks like a powderkeg setup next week. The ingredients are there, it’s just a matter of timing the vorts within the PV lobe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol The 16-17th has 6-12 potential, a solid moderate event. However, this threat is a lot bigger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro def looks like a powderkeg setup next week. The ingredients are there, it’s just a matter of timing the vorts within the PV lobe. you have pretty much everything in place for a major event. just want to see ensemble support 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 37 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Chicago blizzard fail? Maybe troll the GLOV sub with this then? 2 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, George001 said: The 16-17th has 6-12 potential, a solid moderate event. However, this threat is a lot bigger. Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol That ridge placement is very nice..right over the chimney of Idaho…great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. there's been a lot of suggestion toward subsumption phase type - that's just when a S/stream interloping S/W creates a 'place holder' and then the N/stream ( usually the western end of a decaying SPV) fractures and dives in to "eat"/absorbs the S/stream ... the real world expression of that is a deep cyclone resulting - usually exceeding the climate low depth ... This 12z Euro run is repeating the suggestive leitmotif - but... you can clearly see that speed of the flow is stressing it's ability to phase. The S/stream alllllllmost out paces the interaction domain but just get's caught. But in being stressed it's not as proficient at triggering the deeper solution - though as is, the fight results in some 30 hours of persistent light to moderate snow and strengthening NE wind so... 6 /a dozen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Can see the Pope's warmup at the end of the euro run. Hopefully short lived as many of us will have snow otg if models are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just keep in mind... when the 16th was at this 21st range in the Euro, it placed a 961 mb low on ACK .... now it's a tooth pull to get the front off shore even kink in that model. It may be that this scenario on the 20/21st, being inherently different total synoptic framing, is just something the Euro will handle better than the 17th... sure. But, that's too speculative - how much sense is it allowing d-drip with the so much continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ensembles have it…tho obviously tons of spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 33 minutes ago, Hazey said: Can see the Pope's warmup at the end of the euro run. Hopefully short lived as many of us will have snow otg if models are right. The pope’s warm up lol…the guy can’t forecast his way out of a paper bag. That’s a long ways off..just enjoy the potential of what’s in front of us the next 10 days or so. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The pope’s warm up lol…the guy can’t forecast his way out of a paper bag. That’s a long ways off..just enjoy the potential of what’s in front of us the next 10 days or so. What I find a bit distressing and it's happening more and more, is the small number of posters who have no desire to enjoy the meteorological setups right in front of them, but instead look for ways to post negative predictions about what it looks like 10 days to 2-weeks down the road. I'm ok with general pattern comments about the extended range period, but for a small handful of folks it's a constant harang of negative ball-busting vibes... 5 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: there's been a lot of suggestion toward subsumption phase type - that's just when a S/stream interloping S/W creates a 'place holder' and then the N/stream ( usually the western end of a decaying SPV) fractures and dives in to "eat"/absorbs the S/stream ... the real world expression of that is a deep cyclone resulting - usually exceeding the climate low depth ... This 12z Euro run is repeating the suggestive leitmotif - but... you can clearly see that speed of the slow is stressing it's ability to phase. The S/stream alllllllmost out paces the interaction domain but just get's caught. But in being stressed it's not as proficient at triggering the deeper solution - though as is, the fight results in some 30 hours of persistent light to moderate snow and strengthening NE wind so... 6 /a dozen Just starting to look at this in more depth, but to your point, interesting to see variance on 12z EPS in low depths hinting at the very different ceiling with a "subsume" setup: Jan 17 range is generally 980s-990s Jan 19-20 have a few members as low as 950s-960s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, FXWX said: What I find a bit distressing and it's happening more and more, is the small number of posters who have no desire to enjoy the meteorological setups right in front of them, but instead look for ways to post negative predictions about what it looks like 10 days to 2-weeks down the road. I'm ok with general pattern comments about the extended range period, but for a small handful of folks it's a constant harang of negative ball-busting vibes... So true John. That’s how you know they are not genuine in their efforts, but only look to troll. Agreed 100%. It’s posters like that ruin good places like this. I’ve blocked as many of them as I can, and it’s a much better experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Just starting to look at this in more depth, but to your point, interesting to see variance on 12z EPS in low depths hinting at the very different ceiling with a "subsume" setup: Jan 17 range is generally 980s-990s Jan 19-20 have a few members as low as 950s-960s Was thinking the same thing. There are a few Tippy stemwinders coming right up over SNE sub-970mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Can see the Pope's warmup at the end of the euro run. Hopefully short lived as many of us will have snow otg if models are right. That warmup has been advertised fairly well by ensembles. It doesn’t look like a weeks-long ordeal though since the PNA ridge out west is rapidly rebuilding by the end of the month…so I think that bodes well for more threats in early February. But we’ll see. There’s always nuances we can’t see at this range. Even in milder patterns, you grab a well-timed Scooter high over Quebec and you can grab a nice snow event. Vice-versa, we can still get ugly cutters in favorable longwave patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So true John. That’s how you know they are not genuine in their efforts, but only look to troll. Agreed 100%. It’s posters like that ruin good places like this. I’ve blocked as many of them as I can, and it’s a much better experience. it's deeper than just trolling ... yes there are those too - of course... but i believe there's a kind of escapism realm that is sought, and it sounds some where between fascinating, odd and just plain sick, but using these computer model cinemas and the emotional surge they trigger, as the boundaries of that realm... something like that? interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That warmup has been advertised fairly well by ensembles. It doesn’t look like a weeks-long ordeal though since the PNA ridge out west is rapidly rebuilding by the end of the month…so I think that bodes well for more threats in early February. But we’ll see. There’s always nuances we can’t see at this range. Even in milder patterns, you grab a well-timed Scooter high over Quebec and you can grab a nice snow event. Vice-versa, we can still get ugly cutters in favorable longwave patterns. i think this winter was destined to up and downs, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks like we grab a quick 1-2” on Sunday in convective looking squalline 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 29 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Was thinking the same thing. There are a few Tippy stemwinders coming right up over SNE sub-970mb. Agree the 19-20th has always been the higher ceiling setup than 16-17.. However, Ensembles were hitting 16-17 just as hard in the last 72 hours on both GEFS and EPS before becoming much more tame the past 24-36 hours on all guidance.. The theme continues to be for these signals to dampen the closer we get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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