January 2024 -- Discussion

[weatherwiz]

Persistence works if you're in San Diego, CA. 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People don't acknowledge a change until they shovel...what is getting "pushed back" and "can kicked" is the imminent chance for significant snowfall in said poster's BY.

Or any backyard at this point. 

[Brewbeer]

seems like this "pattern" has been more persistent than 3 weeks now

[Go Kart Mozart]

55 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

 

 

Are their any stats on the accuracy of the weeklies post day 14?  I would guess they have a proficiency between 50% and 55%.  Coin toss or a tad better.

[moneypitmike]

Persistence = pattern.

breakdown of persistence = breakdown of pattern

[DJln491]

41 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Persistence = pain.

breakdown of persistence = a different kind of pain

 

[alex]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pay reg prices for maybe a 1/4 of the mountain open is not a good deal imo.

How about paying full price but spending an hour in line? Sure, the whole mountain is open but you get to do 10 runs in a day. 
 

I don’t disagree that prices are outrageous. I also don’t claim to have any understanding of how to optimize pricing at a ski resort, so I make no pronouncements on the matter. Bretton Woods makes no mystery of the fact that it’s an expensive resort but they like to keep it that way to keep crowds down. We all know the shitshow that happened with the Epic Pass. It’s a balance. 

[MJO812]

I'm really close to cancel winter 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

On December 27th?  WTF happened to you pal?  Man you’re in a bad place. 
 

But if you cancel…no more posting the rest of the winter…you out if you cancel. 

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

I get it, the op models are disheartening plus these mild temps for the foreseeable future suck.  Also having absolutely nothing to track, I have zero hope for any threats in the next 10 days. 
 

Just have to flip this pattern completely and get rid of the mild pac air. Even though we technically start a new regime to end this week it sure seems as if it is morphing from a potentially favorable “better” pattern to more of the same BS. 
 

We just have to keep in mind it’s December 27th. I am excited to see what the -NAO and some true cold air eventually being available can do for us. 

[MJO812]

[cleetussnow]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I get it, the op models are disheartening plus these mild temps for the foreseeable future. 
 

Just have to flip this pattern completely and mild pac air. Even though we technically start a new regime to end this week it sure seems as if it is morphing from a potentially favorable “better” pattern to more of the same BS. 
 

We just have to keep in mind it’s December 27th. I am excited to see what the -NAO and some true cold air eventually being available can do for us. 

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

We are in major need for a D-drip. And the only fix is a legit storm to track. 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

Fits the pattern, likely to verify

[weathafella]

The unhappy hour gfs today?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We are in major need for a D-drip. And the only fix is a legit storm to track. 

Don’t worry ..that will be gone the next run.
 

Those who want to cancel…I say do it!!  Let’s have it boys.  Cancel it up.  That’s exactly what we need to shake things up.  So let’s have the cancels. Anthony you can have the honor of being the first to cancel it. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Fits the pattern, likely to verify

20% of daily allotment on a 384 hour OP prog. 

[cleetussnow]

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

Seems like quite the high pressure that's plowing right through... an evolution guaranteed to change 50 times between now and then, but some forget this

[RCNYILWX]

Long time lurker (and very occasional poster) in this sub. I know the ensembles don't equal the reality of what snow lovers want, but isn't the pattern offered by the 12z EPS for week 2 typically a decent one for New England, objectively speaking?

Neutralish EPO with a -PNA, -AO, -NAO, no semblance of well AN h5 heights nearby and 850 mb temp anomalies near to slightly above normal with the 850 mb 0C line in the vicinity of the Delmarva.

It's not a cold pattern, but the -PNA would provide a steady stream of shortwaves and the -NAO/-AO could modulate the storm track in a beneficial way and/or promote coastal re-development of primary shortwaves tracking inland.

Wasn't necessarily expecting that sort of look to be in play for this winter, but from my perspective (NWS Chicago forecaster), that projected pattern is typically a productive one here and have also been associated with snowy patterns into New England. Thinking 2010-11, temporarily in early Feb 2015, and mid-late January into February 2021 and 2022 as some noteworthy examples.

I'd go as far as saying that the projected EPS pattern doesn't look like a bad one even down into the NYC area (I'm originally from Queens).

[Great Snow 1717]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

...but you said the GFS looked great...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Long time lurker (and very occasional poster) in this sub. I know the ensembles don't equal the reality of what snow lovers want, but isn't the pattern offered by the 12z EPS for week 2 typically a decent one for New England, objectively speaking?

Neutralish EPO with a -PNA, -AO, -NAO, no semblance of well AN h5 heights nearby and 850 mb temp anomalies near to slightly above normal with the 850 mb 0C line in the vicinity of the Delmarva.

It's not a cold pattern, but the -PNA would provide a steady stream of shortwaves and the -NAO/-AO could modulate the storm track in a beneficial way and/or promote coastal re-development of primary shortwaves tracking inland.

Wasn't necessarily expecting that sort of look to be in play for this winter, but from my perspective (NWS Chicago forecaster), that projected pattern is typically a productive one here and have also been associated with snowy patterns into New England. Thinking 2010-11, temporarily in early Feb 2015, and mid-late January into February 2021 and 2022 as some noteworthy examples.

I'd go as far as saying that the projected EPS pattern doesn't look like a bad one even down into the NYC area (I'm originally from Queens).


 

Yes it does. Many are jaded from recent failures, GEFS not as good, and also that pattern can easily be great for the distant interior and bad for many on this subforum, time will tell. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Long time lurker (and very occasional poster) in this sub. I know the ensembles don't equal the reality of what snow lovers want, but isn't the pattern offered by the 12z EPS for week 2 typically a decent one for New England, objectively speaking?

Neutralish EPO with a -PNA, -AO, -NAO, no semblance of well AN h5 heights nearby and 850 mb temp anomalies near to slightly above normal with the 850 mb 0C line in the vicinity of the Delmarva.

It's not a cold pattern, but the -PNA would provide a steady stream of shortwaves and the -NAO/-AO could modulate the storm track in a beneficial way and/or promote coastal re-development of primary shortwaves tracking inland.

Wasn't necessarily expecting that sort of look to be in play for this winter, but from my perspective (NWS Chicago forecaster), that projected pattern is typically a productive one here and have also been associated with snowy patterns into New England. Thinking 2010-11, temporarily in early Feb 2015, and mid-late January into February 2021 and 2022 as some noteworthy examples.

I'd go as far as saying that the projected EPS pattern doesn't look like a bad one even down into the NYC area (I'm originally from Queens).

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Great post. Thanks for chiming in with some nice reason.
 

We have a lot of silly folks in here, that like to look at 14-16 day op runs..and if it shows warm and rain they then run and post what it shows.

If it shows the opposite(a snowstorm/colder), and somebody posts it, they laugh and weenie the poster because it’s a two week OP run.   It’s become a sad dynamic unfortunately.  Now we have folks canceling winter on 12/27.   Lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, alex said:

How about paying full price but spending an hour in line? Sure, the whole mountain is open but you get to do 10 runs in a day. 
 

I don’t disagree that prices are outrageous. I also don’t claim to have any understanding of how to optimize pricing at a ski resort, so I make no pronouncements on the matter. Bretton Woods makes no mystery of the fact that it’s an expensive resort but they like to keep it that way to keep crowds down. We all know the shitshow that happened with the Epic Pass. It’s a balance. 

Yea I’m only giving a perspective from just a couple lenses. We only went in good/great conditions and ideally not during peak traffic days. If it was a weekend with long lines, we usually map out the day to get the most runs in by skiing a low traffic area while the gondola/main peak lifts are backed up. We would ski those high traffic areas real early, lunchtime, and late. 
 

It all comes down to value, just imo. I’d rather get a couple less turns in bomb conditions with the entire mtn open then a few more in terrible conditions on a 3/4 closed mtn. Making the drive and committing to the insane costs thesedays, we don’t want to pull up to a NNE mtn that looks/feels like Northern Georgia. 

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Long time lurker (and very occasional poster) in this sub. I know the ensembles don't equal the reality of what snow lovers want, but isn't the pattern offered by the 12z EPS for week 2 typically a decent one for New England, objectively speaking?

Neutralish EPO with a -PNA, -AO, -NAO, no semblance of well AN h5 heights nearby and 850 mb temp anomalies near to slightly above normal with the 850 mb 0C line in the vicinity of the Delmarva.

It's not a cold pattern, but the -PNA would provide a steady stream of shortwaves and the -NAO/-AO could modulate the storm track in a beneficial way and/or promote coastal re-development of primary shortwaves tracking inland.

Wasn't necessarily expecting that sort of look to be in play for this winter, but from my perspective (NWS Chicago forecaster), that projected pattern is typically a productive one here and have also been associated with snowy patterns into New England. Thinking 2010-11, temporarily in early Feb 2015, and mid-late January into February 2021 and 2022 as some noteworthy examples.

I'd go as far as saying that the projected EPS pattern doesn't look like a bad one even down into the NYC area (I'm originally from Queens).


 

Yes it is a decent pattern on average for New England. Also seen at times in the 2008-09 winter to name another. 
 

I think the excessive warmth last winter and so far this winter has made many forget that we don’t need the PV on top of us to have decent snow chances. But it will probably take a few events actually verifying for many to realize it. 

[RCNYILWX]

Yes it does. Many are jaded from recent failures, GEFS not as good, and also that pattern can easily be great for the distant interior and bad for many on this subforum, time will tell. 

Understand the tendency to feel jaded by recent winters. We had a rough winter out here last year too. The 12z GEFS looks pretty similar to the EPS. From about 1/8-1/11 would be the concern for a more wrapped up cutter given the progged AN heights in that period. And on the GEFS, it verbatim gets the 850 0 line farther north.

On the other hand, with the NAO forecast to be solidly negative, also seems like a setup (should it come to fruition) that could be conducive to a SWFE. Then beyond that window, the pattern looks generally favorable with H5 heights trending to a bit below normal and a nice upper jet max focused over the southeast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I think we see improvements out west when the mjo get into p3. Unfortunately, that might take until mid month. Second week of January looks like a -pna with cold dumping west 

That is a pattern change from the entire CONUS and Canada void of cold, no? Look, I have never been in love with early January, but the fact of the matter is the wheels of change are in motion, regardless of the fact that east coast weenies can't instantly massage their prostate due to cold initially loading west.

I have said all along it won't be a cold winter because the PDO is negative and el Nino is appreciably strong.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it is a decent pattern on average for New England. Also seen at times in the 2008-09 winter to name another. 
 

I think the excessive warmth last winter and so far this winter has made many forget that we don’t need the PV on top of us to have decent snow chances. But it will probably take a few events actually verifying for many to realize it. 

I think this post says a lot.. especially the last sentence . The majority of posters here , myself included, are in doubt of the pattern change and models being wrong once again. It’s just hard to buy in when they’ve basically been wrong for several years running.  The whites of the eyes need to be seen . If and when that happens .. that’s what most people need to see.