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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think much differently considering those archaic models were virtually locked on for nearly a week leading in. It was a such a strong signal.

What a crazy storm -- we're lucky to have witnessed it. A virtual max-out of our atmosphere.

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22 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I'd be fascinated to see how today's forecast models would handle the March Superstorm a week out.

I think it would be handled differently…just in the aspect that the models are So Sensitive now, they weren’t 30 yrs ago. That’s my take. I think the sensitivity now is what has a lot to do with some of the jumping around compared to before..

 

Sure, It would no doubt sniff it out. But How consistent would be interesting to see? 

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18 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I'd be fascinated to see how today's forecast models would handle the March Superstorm a week out.

Storm of the Century marked a milestone in the weather forecasting of the United States. By March 8, 1993, several operational numerical weather prediction models and medium-range forecasters at the United States National Weather Service recognized the threat of a significant snowstorm. This marked the first time National Weather Service meteorologists were able to predict accurately a system's severity five days in advance

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s one run. And of course it’s always track dependent…no matter if it’s below zero or not, you know that. 

Everyone should... but so many forget lol. That verbatim would make many happy however, lets see how many more dozen times it morphs around now

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Just now, UnitedWx said:

Everyone should... but so many forget lol. That verbatim would make many happy however, lets see how many more dozen times it morphs around now

Yes sir. Ya that’s a good hit right there for most.  If That takes an ever so slightly more east track, then it’s game on for the coast too.  

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I've been on these boards a very long time and yet the hear someone say, "Boy, The CMC really nailed this one"..............:lol:

Right…it isn’t very good at all. Agreed.
 

And if it does have the right idea, it’ll flop around after that, and look different by the time the storm arrives. It’s always lost. 

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I've been on these boards a very long time and yet the hear someone say, "Boy, The CMC really nailed this one"..............:lol:

It has to work for the Canadians though, right?  Maybe it's good at predicting sea ice in Hudson Bay off Churchill or drizzle in Vancouver.

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